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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 10-22-2012, 01:48 PM   #406
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Originally Posted by LiveSteam View Post
brand of politics or life style.
Either. One tends to influence the other and vice/versa.
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Old 10-22-2012, 02:49 PM   #407
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
I was guessing it would be 50-50 all along.. then Akin showed his ass and I switched it to 51-49... I'd be surprised if 51-49 doesn't end up the final number... but hell we could see 50-50 and 269-269 electoral split with split Pres/VP ticket that keeps the Senate with the Dems in charge! how weird would that be! (yes, I know that is very very very unlikely, but it is possible)
I mentioned this a few days ago.

Romney / Biden staff.
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Old 10-22-2012, 03:25 PM   #408
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Originally Posted by ROYC75 View Post
I mentioned this a few days ago.

Romney / Biden staff.
Maybe that's what this country needs??? Force these dicks to work together.
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Old 10-22-2012, 03:51 PM   #409
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Holy Cow. RCP just posted new favorable/unfavorable numbers for the candidates. Romney went up slightly, but Obama's number plunged:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...favorable.html


Obama's spread went down from over five to 3.8, and Romney's spread is the highest I have seen yet, at 6.7, with his favorables over 50%, and his unfavorable down to 43%.
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Old 10-22-2012, 04:02 PM   #410
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is RCP a right-leaning outlet? I seriously don't pay any attention.
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Old 10-22-2012, 04:05 PM   #411
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Originally Posted by h5n1 View Post
is RCP a right-leaning outlet? I seriously don't pay any attention.
I don't think so. They analyze all of the polls and data, etc. and make predictions. They have links to articles from both right and left sources. Their web banner ads seem to lean right, but that might be more of an indication as to who buys ad space than an actual leaning.
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Old 10-22-2012, 04:24 PM   #412
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
I don't think so. They analyze all of the polls and data, etc. and make predictions. They have links to articles from both right and left sources. Their web banner ads seem to lean right, but that might be more of an indication as to who buys ad space than an actual leaning.
I actually helped them with some IT stuff when they were getting started because they were in my neck of the woods. I'd say they tilt right, but they play the poll data they report very straight. The only thing they don't include, I believe, are scientifically conducted online polls (not the ones that sites put on their page and invite anyone to vote, but ones that screen scientifically but allow for response online).
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Old 10-22-2012, 04:52 PM   #413
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Originally Posted by h5n1 View Post
is RCP a right-leaning outlet? I seriously don't pay any attention.
Depends. The website, from an editorial point of view, certainly is. But their poll work is mostly pure aggregation.
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Old 10-22-2012, 05:48 PM   #414
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Interesting insight into 538. Not sure why older polls would carry greater weight than more recent polls, but it is an interesting read:

http://www.nationalreview.com/articl...el-josh-jordan
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Old 10-22-2012, 05:50 PM   #415
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Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
Holy Cow. RCP just posted new favorable/unfavorable numbers for the candidates. Romney went up slightly, but Obama's number plunged:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...favorable.html


Obama's spread went down from over five to 3.8, and Romney's spread is the highest I have seen yet, at 6.7, with his favorables over 50%, and his unfavorable down to 43%.
Obama's spread back up to 4.5 now. Must have had some new polling data come out in the last couple of hours. Romney's favorable/unfavorable still the same.
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Old 10-22-2012, 06:40 PM   #416
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Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
Interesting insight into 538. Not sure why older polls would carry greater weight than more recent polls, but it is an interesting read:

http://www.nationalreview.com/articl...el-josh-jordan
wow, that's actually a pretty scathing indictment of 538. To be clear, I'm not anti-538 (even though it is a fact that Silver is an ardent Obama supporter) I am however, skeptical of the weight people give to a model that worked ONCE (2008) and is otherwise completely unproven.

EDIT: For all those who are hard core 538ers... if Romney wins big (doubtful) will you switch allegiance to a site like unskewedpolls.com that is predicting just that? (342-196) I for one will call it like I see it, both sites are unproven and full of guesswork and taking them as bible truth is just idiotic,

Last edited by AustinChief; 10-22-2012 at 06:48 PM..
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Old 10-22-2012, 08:42 PM   #417
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
wow, that's actually a pretty scathing indictment of 538. To be clear, I'm not anti-538 (even though it is a fact that Silver is an ardent Obama supporter) I am however, skeptical of the weight people give to a model that worked ONCE (2008) and is otherwise completely unproven.

EDIT: For all those who are hard core 538ers... if Romney wins big (doubtful) will you switch allegiance to a site like unskewedpolls.com that is predicting just that? (342-196) I for one will call it like I see it, both sites are unproven and full of guesswork and taking them as bible truth is just idiotic,
Unskewed isn't using any scientific data, they are only ignoring data that doesn't fill their endgame.

538 has worked more than once as they also covered the elections in 2010. They have put their model to the test by using data on elections going back as far as they can get it, which is 1936. Part of their model is to take the numbers from polls and put that firm to the test against their past record.
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Old 10-22-2012, 08:45 PM   #418
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
wow, that's actually a pretty scathing indictment of 538. To be clear, I'm not anti-538 (even though it is a fact that Silver is an ardent Obama supporter) I am however, skeptical of the weight people give to a model that worked ONCE (2008) and is otherwise completely unproven.

EDIT: For all those who are hard core 538ers... if Romney wins big (doubtful) will you switch allegiance to a site like unskewedpolls.com that is predicting just that? (342-196) I for one will call it like I see it, both sites are unproven and full of guesswork and taking them as bible truth is just idiotic,
Your position is easy - you're neither for them, or against them - so you're right no matter what.

I've never been to unskewedpolls. I think RCP and 538 are both useful, and will continue to be.
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Old 10-22-2012, 08:46 PM   #419
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Current numbers have the election 69.3% towards Obama. There is a shift in Virginia as it swings back to blue but just barely. Its essentially still a tossup as is Colorado. Saturdays column wondered if Obama should concede Florida, which is at 69% to Romney, about the same as they have Iowa to Obama (66%). Unfortunately I am out of free articles to know what the answer to that question was.
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Old 10-22-2012, 08:50 PM   #420
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Current numbers have the election 69.3% towards Obama. There is a shift in Virginia as it swings back to blue but just barely. Its essentially still a tossup as is Colorado. Saturdays column wondered if Obama should concede Florida, which is at 69% to Romney, about the same as they have Iowa to Obama (66%). Unfortunately I am out of free articles to know what the answer to that question was.
Pro tip:

You can access any NYT link through a third party link. So just type the headline into Google, and then access it through Google.


If there are certain columnists or news areas you like, set up a twitter account and follow the writers. They normally all post links to their current posts, and you can get access that way as well.
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