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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 10-24-2012, 02:17 PM   #436
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Yet you still think Romney will win Ohio.
Obama is going to take Ohio. It's looking good in Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada. Thats a checkmate scenario. Romney has to somehow, someway take Ohio.
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Old 10-24-2012, 02:33 PM   #437
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
I conceded Florida to Romney about a month ago due to the redneck vote.

The candidates especially presidential visits, are not fooling around with personal appearances at this point in the election. 12 days out, candidates don't usually make appearances in states they have no realistic chance in winning. Yet, Obama is appearing tonight here in Tampa. Why would he do this if the Obama campaign doesn't think they have a shot a Florida?
Michelle probably insisted on a vacation.
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Old 10-24-2012, 03:10 PM   #438
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
I conceded Florida to Romney about a month ago due to the redneck vote.

The candidates especially presidential visits, are not fooling around with personal appearances at this point in the election. 12 days out, candidates don't usually make appearances in states they have no realistic chance in winning. Yet, Obama is appearing tonight here in Tampa. Why would he do this if the Obama campaign doesn't think they have a shot a Florida?
There you go again...
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Old 10-24-2012, 05:25 PM   #439
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Michelle probably insisted on a vacation.
You have to wonder why, this late in the campaign no presidential visit takes place for a lost cause.
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Originally Posted by MTG#10 View Post
I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 10-24-2012, 06:35 PM   #440
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Nate Silver noted today that out of all the electoral college simulators which try to predict probabilities using a similar method (use state and national polls, possibly combined with economic data, to create by-state probabilities, then run 10's of thousands of electoral college simulations), the 538 model is actually the most generous for Romney. He's getting flack from the right just because he's more high-profile, but they'd choke at the results some of the other math geeks are cranking out.

votamatic - Obama, over 95% probability

Princeton Election Consortium - Obama, about 90% probability

Desart and Holbrook Election Forecast - Obama, 86.34% probability

Nate Silver believes all 3 are too optimistic for Obama and his 538 model is the only one of its kind to give Romney over a 30% chance of winning, which makes the accusations that he's in the tank for Obama funny. His colleagues think he's giving Romney too much of a benefit of the doubt.
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Old 10-24-2012, 10:59 PM   #441
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There you go again...
What do you call a guy who's a bigot against his own kind?
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Old 10-25-2012, 07:44 AM   #442
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Michelle probably insisted on a vacation.
Quote:
During 2 terms as President, Bush took spent all of part of 477 days at Camp David, on retreats and made 77 trips to his Crawford Ranch, in Texas, where he spent all or part of 490 days, on his Ranch.
The total number of days of vacation or retreat President Bush took, while in office over a period of 8 years was 967 days, or 32% of his total time in office, was spent on vacations or retreats.
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_many_v...n_as_president

Quote:
President Obama has been on vacation 78 days from 2009 to 2011.
http://politic365.com/2012/05/08/oba...d-up-the-most/
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Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
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Old 10-25-2012, 08:00 AM   #443
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538's latest article comments on intrade and their disagreement. I don't have any more free articles to give you more details.

The poll numbers were pretty flat going into yesterday. The small bump for Romney was explained pretty much by the drop in the stock market.

The latest numbers released last evening show the race trending back to Obama with a 71% chance of victory. Colorado is again trending blue (52.3%) as they do not give much credence to the latest Rasmussen poll. Virginia is more blue (52.9%) even though the most weight is given to a recent Wenzel Strategies poll that put Romney ahead.

The other close races:
Iowa (66.5% Obama)
New Hampshire (67.3% Obama)
Florida (67.6% Romney)
Ohio (73.4% Obama)
Nevada (75.9% Obama)

All other races are at least 80% towards one candidate. Obama is ahead in 9 of what are considered the 11 swing state races. Three of those races trend above 80% to Obama while only one is for Romney. Michigan and Pennsylvania are not, and have not been for some time, considered competitive.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
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Old 10-25-2012, 09:19 AM   #444
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Old 10-25-2012, 10:19 AM   #445
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Collectively, the new polls of the past 24 hours have done nothing to change the standings in the most crucial battleground states. Obama continued to hold leads of 2 to 3 percentage points in Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and Wisconsin, four states that currently combine with the states where Obama leads by larger margins to create a 277 electoral vote majority, seven more than the 270 needed to win.
http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast....mittmentu.html
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Old 10-25-2012, 01:13 PM   #446
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
*yawn*
Why should I expect anything less. Anything that refutes what you believe is just ignored. Bush was the biggest vacation President of all time, taking even more days than FDR who was in four years longer and had to take trips to Warm Springs, GA for his polio. Obama has taken less vacations than any other President in recent memory.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
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Old 10-25-2012, 01:16 PM   #447
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Why should I expect anything less. Anything that refutes what you believe is just ignored. Bush was the biggest vacation President of all time, taking even more days than FDR who was in four years longer and had to take trips to Warm Springs, GA for his polio. Obama has taken less vacations than any other President in recent memory.
Trips to the Ranch and Camp David aren't really vacations. You might be able to dazzle your fellow simpletons with BS like that, but they don't have much impact on me.
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Old 10-25-2012, 01:44 PM   #448
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Trips to the Ranch and Camp David aren't really vacations. You might be able to dazzle your fellow simpletons with BS like that, but they don't have much impact on me.
So it Patteeu Bizarroworld Bush took 0 days of vacation.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
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Old 10-25-2012, 04:12 PM   #449
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Just like everyone is saying, that it is fast becoming a perceived reality, Obama takes Ohio, its checkmate.
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Old 10-25-2012, 04:13 PM   #450
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Just like everyone is saying, that it is fast becoming a perceived reality, Obama takes Ohio, its checkmate.
Just like he was going to win Florida?
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