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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 10-26-2012, 06:20 PM   #526
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Your point is silly. He is not a prognosticator. The job of 538 is to make sense of polls and determine at any point of the election who is most likely to win. They do not try to determine if a candidate will implode or take off.
This. Times a million.


I've given up in this thread trying describe any of this. A few people occasionally so "Oh yes, that makes sense". And then the next day they go back to spouting political bullshit.
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Old 10-26-2012, 06:38 PM   #527
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
And by "got right" you mean, they predicted 50%+ to the winner the day before the election? How many did he "get right" a month out? 2 months?

All so silly.
Post 27 of this thread.
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Old 10-26-2012, 06:54 PM   #528
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Post 27 of this thread.
Cool. So if he is wrong THIS year... do you think people here will reconsider the blind faith they have in 538?
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Old 10-26-2012, 06:56 PM   #529
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Cool. So if he is wrong THIS year... do you think people here will reconsider the blind faith they have in 538?
I guess I'm not cutting edge enough. I've always just voted and waited for the results. Seems a lot less of a hassle.
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Old 10-26-2012, 06:59 PM   #530
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Cool. So if he is wrong THIS year... do you think people here will reconsider the blind faith they have in 538?
no, just like Rasmussen has become a joke after the 2010 elections. You are only as good as your guess compared to the final results.
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Old 10-26-2012, 07:00 PM   #531
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I guess I'm not cutting edge enough. I've always just voted and waited for the results. Seems a lot less of a hassle.
No hassle here, just entertainment... that's all most of this amounts to at this point.. regardless of what the 538 pushers on here seem to think... or maybe that is unfair, maybe they don't think that but they certainly represent their view of 538 as if it has some magic validity to it.
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Old 10-26-2012, 07:06 PM   #532
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Cool. So if he is wrong THIS year... do you think people here will reconsider the blind faith they have in 538?
If Obama has a 75% chance of winning and Romeny ends up winning, that is a result that should happen 1 in 4 times. So that on it's own isn't enough to toss out 538. I'd probably look at the state races, see how well he did there and figure out where things went wrong. If the results were within the margin of error, I'd probably put just as much trust in him as I do now, because the method would have done exactly what it advertised to do.

I have a realistic expectation of what the method can do. I only use it like a club when R's are foaming at the mouth about how Romeny is currently leading overall or the race is tied in OH or other such nonsense.
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Old 10-26-2012, 07:10 PM   #533
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Have you looked at the deltas from 2008 to now in these states?
Yes, I have read some articles lately about the changing populace in the battleground states. I think New Hampshire is heading Republican in a election or two. But so may Texas go blue in an election or two.

You have Nevada heading to strong blue due to the Latino workers that have flooded into the state since 2008.

Iowa has always had a strong liberal bent in some parts of the state. They legalized gay marriage. But I think that pocket of liberals is getting smaller.
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Old 10-26-2012, 07:38 PM   #534
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No, my point is that your overwhelming faith in 538 and the way YOU use it is silly. Yes, I know what he is, you claim to know but yet you beat people about the head with his numbers as if they are predictive.. they aren't. So stop it, you look silly.

You can't have it both ways. You can't crow about his numbers and act as if they are meaningful then when asked for numbers on the accuracy of his work at this point in time in past elections say "no no, it isn't meant to be predictive."

Do you get it now?
This whole thread has been people from the right bashing because Silver hasn't said Romney is going to win. I haven't crowed at all, I report the results. I've reported when Obama has gained and when he has lost ground. You come on here crying saying Romney is ahead in NH, Colorado, Virginia and Iowa then whine because 538 doesn't agree with you nor do the raw numbers from the polls.

Freakin' righties have to have the news slanted their way or they won't believe it and want their polls the same way. 538 is a way to look at the polls without all the conflicting information. If you want to come on here and throw your partisan slant on it, don't whine about it when you're called on it because you have no rationale behind your statements. You want to believe the un-science of unskewed, be my guest and post it in your own thread.
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Old 10-26-2012, 08:12 PM   #535
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Nate Silver@fivethirtyeight The candidate we have leading in EVERY state today is the same one we had leading when we launched 538 forecast in June
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Old 10-26-2012, 08:45 PM   #536
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No way the democratic base shows up like in 2008, and the republican base has been energized. Those two factors alone don't bode well for an incumbent. Obama mastered the hope and change thing in 2008, but now he is getting it used against him.
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Old 10-26-2012, 08:55 PM   #537
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No matter what way it goes, I think this thread will get a lot of abuse in a little over a week.
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Old 10-26-2012, 09:27 PM   #538
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
No hassle here, just entertainment... that's all most of this amounts to at this point.. regardless of what the 538 pushers on here seem to think... or maybe that is unfair, maybe they don't think that but they certainly represent their view of 538 as if it has some magic validity to it.
You have lost perspective.

If the 538 model is right, then flipping 2 coins and having them both land on heads would be about as surprising as Romney winning. Sure, you'd rather be ahead than behind, but its still relatively close.

There ARE quant models out there which believe its in the bag and are basically doing a "Obama will win" announcement, but 538 isn't one of those models. The range of possibilities is somewhere between a narrow Romney squeeker or a total Obama blowout. The most likely result is an Obama 2-3 point win, significantly closer than 2008.
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Last edited by alnorth; 10-26-2012 at 09:32 PM..
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Old 10-26-2012, 09:30 PM   #539
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You have lost perspective.

If the 538 model is right, then flipping 2 coins and having them both land on heads would be about as surprising as Romney winning. Sure, you'd rather be ahead than behind, but its still relatively close.
Isn't it usually in the incumbent's favor to be tied?

Romney has also broke 50% at various times in various states, I don't think Obama has.

That's another red flag for B.O.
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Old 10-26-2012, 09:35 PM   #540
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If you want to criticize a model, go after votamatic.org, they may get the last laugh but right now they are basically saying Romney's got less than a 5% chance, and lefties around the internet are often waving those national or votamatic by-state results in response to anything about good results for Romney.
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