Elections 538 - Page 38

whoman69 · 09:58 AM

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

**BigRedChief** · 10-27-2012, 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Plow

**** math.

and while you are at it, **** science. We can't afford either anymore.

**BigRedChief** · 10-27-2012, 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calcountry

Just like he was going to win Florida?

I find it interesting that Romney spent all day in Florida at 3 different events in the state. Obama was here on Thrusday. Why would Romeny be here is he has it locked up? Doesn't he need to work on Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin, Virgina, Iowa etc.

ChiefsandO'sfan · 10-27-2012, 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I find it interesting that Romney spent all day in Florida at 3 different events in the state. Why would he be here is he has it locked up? Doesn't he need to work on Nevafa, Ohio, Wisconsin, Virgina, Iowa etc.

Same could be said for Obama. He's going to New Hampshire and Michigan this week.

whoman69 · 10-27-2012, 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

I find it interesting that Romney spent all day in Florida at 3 different events in the state. Obama was here on Thrusday. Why would Romeny be here is he has it locked up? Doesn't he need to work on Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin, Virgina, Iowa etc.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan

Same could be said for Obama. He's going to New Hampshire and Michigan this week.

If you take the populous for granted they could revolt.

RINGLEADER · 10-27-2012, 05:04 PM

Just read a pretty interesting article that unless turnout is almost identical to 2008 there is virtually no way that Obama can win and most of these polls will be way off. Evidently Gallup just released a poll conducted with almost 10,000 people to ascertain a party affiliation and it is currently GOP +1.

We'll know the answers to all these thing soon, but I don't find the prospect of the electorate being closer to 2004 than 2008 all that surprising. I find people claiming the Dems are as energized as they were in 2008 to be less likely.

whoman69 · 10-27-2012, 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

Just read a pretty interesting article that unless turnout is almost identical to 2008 there is virtually no way that Obama can win and most of these polls will be way off. Evidently Gallup just released a poll conducted with almost 10,000 people to ascertain a party affiliation and it is currently GOP +1.

We'll know the answers to all these thing soon, but I don't find the prospect of the electorate being closer to 2004 than 2008 all that surprising. I find people claiming the Dems are as energized as they were in 2008 to be less likely.

way to link

**AustinChief** · 10-27-2012, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whoman69

way to link

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158399/20...like-2008.aspx
Ignore the headline and look at the numbers.

If they are accurate than it's obvious Nate Silver is ignoring them and his predictions are going to be WAY off.

Most polls show a substantial Dem oversample and these numbers show that it should be a GOP oversample to be accurate.

Again, all depends on if these are accurate numbers.

**AustinChief** · 10-27-2012, 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

Just read a pretty interesting article that unless turnout is almost identical to 2008 there is virtually no way that Obama can win and most of these polls will be way off. Evidently Gallup just released a poll conducted with almost 10,000 people to ascertain a party affiliation and it is currently GOP +1.

We'll know the answers to all these thing soon, but I don't find the prospect of the electorate being closer to 2004 than 2008 all that surprising. I find people claiming the Dems are as energized as they were in 2008 to be less likely.

If you add in "leaners" it is a +3 GOP advantage. Combine that with Romney's double digit lead among independents and all of a sudden the entire landscape changes.

Aries Walker · 10-27-2012, 07:33 PM

All I ask is this: Whoever turns out to be wrong, come back in to one of these threads and admit it. No excuses. If it's me, I will.

**AustinChief** · 10-27-2012, 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aries Walker

All I ask is this: Whoever turns out to be wrong, come back in to one of these threads and admit it. No excuses. If it's me, I will.

Well, right NOW I am predicting 264 or 267 for Romney... so won't be hard for me to be right.. hopefully I'm wrong and Romney pulls down 300+

But if Romney pulls less than 260 (as many here seem to think) I will happily admit that my understanding of the current political landscape is off base.

**Mr. Kotter** · 10-27-2012, 08:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AustinChief

I really don't see it that way, I tend to think the "toss ups" are going to break for Romney (as of right now) as they tend to do for the challenger.

Everyone keeps talking about Romney's momentum has stopped or reversed.. yet I don't see it. Last week he led in only one or two national polls now he leads in pretty much all of them (IBD/TIPP being the outlier)

You can talk about the electoral map all you want, but if Romney ACTUALLY ends up with a 2-3 point lead nationally, there is no way he doesn't win electorally as well. That isn't my prediction, I just think that we have yet to see ANYTHING that shows a definitive edge right now for either one.

QFT,

Heh, big big guy.....

**BigRedChief** · 10-27-2012, 09:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whoman69

If you take the populous for granted they could revolt.

Yeah thats probably whats going on with romney but why is Obama going to Florida?

**BigRedChief** · 10-27-2012, 09:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Well, right NOW I am predicting 264 or 267 for Romney... so won't be hard for me to be right.. hopefully I'm wrong and Romney pulls down 300+

But if Romney pulls less than 260 (as many here seem to think) I will happily admit that my understanding of the current political landscape is off base.

Could you make a map that we could see how you think the ec is going to fall out?

**AustinChief** · 10-27-2012, 09:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

Could you make a map that we could see how you think the ec is going to fall out?

It's simple.. here are the swing states I see going for Romney (this adds up to 267..and is how I see it today but I'll save my "real" prediction for next Wednesday)

FL, NC, VA, NH, CO, IA

I could see one of these falling out and Romney dropping to 258-263 range but I could also see the polls being WAY off and Romney pulling every swing state and possibly some Obama "leaning" ones.

**BigRedChief** · 10-27-2012, 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AustinChief

It's simple.. here are the swing states I see going for Romney (this adds up to 267..and is how I see it today but I'll save my "real" prediction for next Wednesday)

FL, NC, VA, NH, CO, IA

I could see one of these falling out and Romney dropping to 258-263 range but I could also see the polls being WAY off and Romney pulling every swing state and possibly some Obama "leaning" ones.

So you see Romney taking every battleground except for Ohio and Nevada?

08-07-2012, 07:21 PM
whoman69 The Master Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Marion, IA Casino cash: $61445	538 The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama. The closest state contests are: Florida 50.3% Obama North Carolina 74.4% Romney Virginia 79.4% Obama Colorado 79.7% Obama Iowa 84.3% Obama New Hampshire 84.6% Obama The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability: Michigan Pennsylvania Wisconsin Nevada Ohio Obama has 303 EC at least 79% Obama has 332 EC at least 50% Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
Posts: 23,081

10-27-2012, 05:04 PM	#560
RINGLEADER RING****ER Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Confusion, USA Casino cash: $335209	Just read a pretty interesting article that unless turnout is almost identical to 2008 there is virtually no way that Obama can win and most of these polls will be way off. Evidently Gallup just released a poll conducted with almost 10,000 people to ascertain a party affiliation and it is currently GOP +1. We'll know the answers to all these thing soon, but I don't find the prospect of the electorate being closer to 2004 than 2008 all that surprising. I find people claiming the Dems are as energized as they were in 2008 to be less likely.
Posts: 22,909

10-27-2012, 07:33 PM	#564
Aries Walker Back again. Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Aspen Hill, MD Casino cash: $51183	All I ask is this: Whoever turns out to be wrong, come back in to one of these threads and admit it. No excuses. If it's me, I will.
Posts: 4,272

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