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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 10-27-2012, 10:47 PM   #571
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
So you see Romney taking every battleground except for Ohio and Nevada?
What? No, if that were true, I would see him taking PA, MI, WI as well. You seem to think those three are foregone conclusions... well I think FL, NC, VA, NH are for Romney. So really the only two "iffy" ones I am calling for Romney are IA, and CO while leaving OH and NV for Obama.

Now do you see how biased your perception on this is? Which is completely understandable given the way the media has painted the picture.
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Old 10-27-2012, 10:55 PM   #572
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What? No, if that were true, I would see him taking PA, MI, WI as well. You seem to think those three are foregone conclusions... well I think FL, NC, VA, NH are for Romney. So really the only two "iffy" ones I am calling for Romney are IA, and CO while leaving OH and NV for Obama.
Well you could have just done a map like I asked.

I will bet real large amounts of money that Obama takes PA and MI.
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Old 10-27-2012, 10:57 PM   #573
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VA and NH are in be bag for Romney while NV is still iffy?
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Old 10-27-2012, 10:58 PM   #574
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Well you could have just done a map like I asked.

I will bet real large amounts of money that Obama takes PA and MI.
I wouldn't bet against you... but I certainly wouldn't bet with you either... MI is a dead heat right now. PA not so much.
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Old 10-27-2012, 11:03 PM   #575
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
VA and NH are in be bag for Romney while NV is still iffy?
yes. Roll your ****ing eyes all you want, that is my opinion/guess based on the trends I am seeing. He asked for my educated guess, there it is. It may change next week.
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Old 10-27-2012, 11:05 PM   #576
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According to the electoral geeks I've read, Nevada is much less favorable for Romney in terms of ballot requests, etc. Not out of reach, but tougher than Iowa, Virginia, and Florida.
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Old 10-27-2012, 11:10 PM   #577
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
yes. Roll your ****ing eyes all you want, that is my opinion/guess based on the trends I am seeing. He asked for my educated guess, there it is. It may change next week.
If you want to call it personal opinion, fine. But you went beyond that when you called BRC and the media biased when they didn't agree with you. That gets you the
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Old 10-27-2012, 11:26 PM   #578
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
If you want to call it personal opinion, fine. But you went beyond that when you called BRC and the media biased when they didn't agree with you. That gets you the
The media presentation of the swing states is biased.. or severely incompetent. The trending toward Romney in places like MI and WI is getting very little coverage, instead you hear a constant barrage of where Obama has it "locked up." There is a concerted effort to ignore the trending that has been happening over the last week or two and instead rely on older polls or bullshit polls (145 people really?) by Time.

You'd have to be blind to not see the mainstream media bias. It'd be the same as saying that Fox truly is Fair and Balanced.
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Old 10-28-2012, 12:19 AM   #579
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Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief View Post
According to the electoral geeks I've read, Nevada is much less favorable for Romney in terms of ballot requests, etc. Not out of reach, but tougher than Iowa, Virginia, and Florida.
If it means anything, I just spent a few nights there and HOLY SHIT were both Romney and Obama bombarding the commercial time...

Coming from a state that is not in play, it was insane the difference in amount of ads.
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Old 10-28-2012, 12:45 AM   #580
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
The media presentation of the swing states is biased.. or severely incompetent. The trending toward Romney in places like MI and WI is getting very little coverage, instead you hear a constant barrage of where Obama has it "locked up." There is a concerted effort to ignore the trending that has been happening over the last week or two and instead rely on older polls or bullshit polls (145 people really?) by Time.

You'd have to be blind to not see the mainstream media bias. It'd be the same as saying that Fox truly is Fair and Balanced.
The media is devoting all it's energy to keeping the poll numbers close and completely ignoring the Benghazi coverup.

Romney is going to kick his commie ass.
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Old 10-28-2012, 05:44 AM   #581
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wouldnt it be 25% chance of flipping two heads or two tails and 50% of flipping one of each? im not smart - so i dont know -
Yep. And when you add the 25% for two tails and the 50% for one of each, you get the 75% I was talking about. I must not have expressed it clearly.
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Old 10-28-2012, 05:54 AM   #582
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Romney is going to kick his commie ass.
It's a political Grenada!
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Old 10-28-2012, 07:49 AM   #583
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
It's a political Grenada!
dont get me started.
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WHAT DID I SAY, HUH?!?!?! TELL ME AGAIN?!?! - WHO HAD FAITH IN YOUR TEAM?!?!? WHAT'S MY MOTHER****IN NAME!?!?!
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Old 10-28-2012, 08:21 AM   #584
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
It's a political Grenada!
That would explain Clint Eastwood's presence.
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Old 10-28-2012, 08:28 AM   #585
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Yep. And when you add the 25% for two tails and the 50% for one of each, you get the 75% I was talking about. I must not have expressed it clearly.
Haha - I know - thats why i said - a) im not that smart, and b) in a later post said it makes sense.
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