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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 10-28-2012, 07:23 PM   #601
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Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
It all depends on whether he can duplicate the party turnout from 2008. If he does, he wins. If not, he's toast.
Not true at all. Obama doesn't need a 2008 turn out or he loses. Thats just some Fox News talking point BS.
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Old 10-28-2012, 07:27 PM   #602
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
yep, its looking like the Auto bailout is going create a 2nd term for Obama.
possibly

Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
It all depends on whether he can duplicate the party turnout from 2008. If he does, he wins. If not, he's toast.

There was a really interesting article over at National Review about how Obama is playing to the sub-groups so he doesn't have to appeal to moderates. Very interesting read about how they hope to create a sustainable overtly liberal base.

But it all comes down to turnout.
I think early voting will be the key in some of these swing states especially in Ohio and Iowa.
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Old 10-28-2012, 07:46 PM   #603
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Not true at all. Obama doesn't need a 2008 turn out or he loses. Thats just some Fox News talking point BS.
Keep telling yourself that. Your house is on fire.
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Old 10-28-2012, 08:34 PM   #604
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
possibly


I think early voting will be the key in some of these swing states especially in Ohio and Iowa.
Whether they vote early or not doesn't much matter if the overall numbers don't exceed their earlier turnout.

ON EDIT: It is revealing that Obama's camp is now leaning on early voting as some kind of indicator that they're outperforming Romney when there's little evidence to actually support it. On the other hand, Romney's comparisons to 2008 are stupid because McCain didn't really have any early voting turnout apparatus so of course he's going to do better. And while it may be statistically interesting to look at the number of registered voters election to election, it doesn't really tell you much unless every single registered voter cast a vote in every single election.

The one thing I don't understand about Obama's spin, if he's doing so well, is why he's claiming to be doing better than 2008 in this precinct or that precinct. Since there was a census and the precincts redrawn, there is no way to do an apples to apples comparison unless you look at it on the county level which - according to the stats - don't reveal much in the way of any kind of gain the way they pitch it.

But, like I say, we'll all know in little more than a week and we can all go back to being chums...

Last edited by RINGLEADER; 10-28-2012 at 08:41 PM..
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Old 10-28-2012, 08:36 PM   #605
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Not true at all. Obama doesn't need a 2008 turn out or he loses. Thats just some Fox News talking point BS.
Uh, okay.

All ranting aside, if a poll assumes a turnout that equals or exceeds the 2008 turnout (as all of the NBC/Marist polls do) then he certainly does require that level of turnout to reach the conclusions of the polls. And the same goes for Romney too. He's leading in Gallup and Rasmussen because their screens are telling them there will be GOP turnout on par with the 2004 election. If that doesn't manifest itself then Romney's toast.

Last edited by RINGLEADER; 10-28-2012 at 08:42 PM..
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Old 10-28-2012, 09:19 PM   #606
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
I think early voting will be the key in some of these swing states especially in Ohio and Iowa.
Early voting isn't going so well for Obama.. despite the media lies about it.

As of last week...

Quote:
220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.
(caveat: I don't have the raw figures on this to check the accuracy of this quote and it's context)

And remember, even McCain beat Obama in Ohio on election day... it was the early votes that swung the state in the end. Does anyone here think Romney will not do much better than McCain on Election day?
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Old 10-28-2012, 10:01 PM   #607
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post

But, like I say, we'll all know in little more than a week and we can all go back to being chums...
Agree

Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Early voting isn't going so well for Obama.. despite the media lies about it.

As of last week...

(caveat: I don't have the raw figures on this to check the accuracy of this quote and it's context)

And remember, even McCain beat Obama in Ohio on election day... it was the early votes that swung the state in the end. Does anyone here think Romney will not do much better than McCain on Election day?
The only problem with those numbers is Ohio doesn't track political affiliation.
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Old 10-28-2012, 10:10 PM   #608
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Agree

The only problem with those numbers is Ohio doesn't track political affiliation.

Even if they did, you need to know the voting habits of the groups that make up those numbers for it to really matter. If 100% of the smaller number of Dems voted Dem and only 50% of a larger number of GOP voted GOP then what's the significance?
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Old 10-28-2012, 10:16 PM   #609
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
The only problem with those numbers is Ohio doesn't track political affiliation.
Um, yes they do. Now, you can say it isn't accurate or indicative... but it is there. You have registered dems and repubs in Ohio. (of course you also have people who don't register as either because they don't vote in primaries)

Quote:
Under Ohio election law, you can change your political party at a Primary Election only. This is done by requesting the ballot type for the political party with which you wish to be affiliated. Ohio Revised Code Section 3513.19, .20.

If you do not want to be affiliated with a political party in Ohio, you are considered to be an unaffiliated voter. An unaffiliated voter, which is identified by some people as an “independent voter”, may only vote an Official Questions and Issues Ballot, if there are any present, for your precinct on Primary Election Day. Unaffiliated or Independent voters can vote for candidates and issues in a General Election.
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Old 10-29-2012, 07:16 AM   #610
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Um, yes they do. Now, you can say it isn't accurate or indicative... but it is there. You have registered dems and repubs in Ohio. (of course you also have people who don't register as either because they don't vote in primaries)
That is basically what I was trying to say. When you register to vote in Ohio there is no party affiliation box and on the SOS site they even suggest if you register via the Federal Form to leave the party affiliation box blank.

Quote:
Ohio does not have party registration. "Party" in Ohio is a record of the last party primary a voter participated in.
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Old 10-29-2012, 07:39 AM   #611
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Latest numbers inch Obama back up with a 74.6% of winning. Virginia and Colorado are near 60% to Obama. Nevada, Iowa, Ohio and New Hampshire are over 70%. Florida in also inching back to Obama with a 62.5% probability of going to Romney when it was near 70% about a week ago.

The talk about Romney winning the popular vote but losing the election is only forecast in 5.2% of scenarios. The models give Romney a 28.6% chance of winning the popular vote.

An electoral tie is seen as very improbable as is the chance one candidate wins by 10 or more %. Obama is almost assured of losing at least one state he carried in 2008 and has only a 5% chance of taking any state that he lost.

While its not quite the mandate he had in 2008, a win is a win, especially if Democrats picks up seats in both houses of Congress as it looks to do right now.
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Last edited by whoman69; 10-29-2012 at 09:33 AM..
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Old 10-29-2012, 08:07 AM   #612
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Latest numbers inch Obama back up with a 64.6% of winning. Virginia and Colorado are near 60% to Obama. Nevada, Iowa, Ohio and New Hampshire are over 70%. Florida in also inching back to Obama with a 62.5% probability of going to Romney when it was near 70% about a week ago.

The talk about Romney winning the popular vote but losing the election is only forecast in 5.2% of scenarios. The models give Romney a 28.6% chance of winning the popular vote.

An electoral tie is seen as very improbable as is the chance one candidate wins by 10 or more %. Obama is almost assured of losing at least one state he carried in 2008 and has only a 5% chance of taking any state that he lost.

While its not quite the mandate he had in 2008, a win is a win, especially if Democrats picks up seats in both houses of Congress as it looks to do right now.
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Old 10-29-2012, 08:12 AM   #613
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
The Obama odds have again increased. 538 gives Obama a 74.4% chance of victory...
10/29/12

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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Latest numbers inch Obama back up with a 64.6% of winning...
huh?
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Old 10-29-2012, 09:13 AM   #614
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He mis-typed. He meant 74.6%.
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Old 10-29-2012, 09:32 AM   #615
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Quote:
Originally Posted by carlos3652 View Post
10/27/12



10/29/12



huh?
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
He mis-typed. He meant 74.6%.
Thanks for the catch.
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