Home Mail MemberMap Chat (0) Wallpapers
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > The Lounge > D.C.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-07-2012, 08:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
The Master
 
whoman69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Marion, IA
Casino cash: $5000
538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 10:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
Posts: 23,081
whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2012, 07:17 PM   #631
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
Supporter
 
petegz28's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
Casino cash: $20739
I know this has already been posted a few weeks ago and the article is a couple weeks old but just to draw an extreme from 538. I know 538 is highly repsected in some cirlces but this guy claims to not ever been wrong in 30 years...



Edit: Embed doesn't seem to be working so here is link

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/1904733689001/

Basically he has Romney getting 330 EC votes. His model is based on the EC and not what I guess would be typical data used in most polls
__________________
Posts: 67,994
petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2012, 07:18 PM   #632
LOCOChief LOCOChief is offline
True Chiefs Fan
 
LOCOChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Bull Bay
Casino cash: $5606
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan View Post
"it's math, it's arithmetic"
Posts: 3,121
LOCOChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.LOCOChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.LOCOChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.LOCOChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.LOCOChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.LOCOChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.LOCOChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.LOCOChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.LOCOChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.LOCOChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.LOCOChief Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2012, 07:22 PM   #633
RedDread RedDread is offline
Veteran
 
RedDread's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Back in KC
Casino cash: $2524
Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Well shoot, that ought to be good for an 80% chance of an Obama win once you run it through Nate Silver's black box calculations.
Silver predicts Romney winning in FL.
Posts: 3,970
RedDread is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.RedDread is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.RedDread is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.RedDread is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.RedDread is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.RedDread is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.RedDread is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.RedDread is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.RedDread is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.RedDread is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.RedDread is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2012, 08:11 PM   #634
Pitt Gorilla Pitt Gorilla is offline
Banned!
 
Pitt Gorilla's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: NOT Columbia, MO 65201
Casino cash: $13808
Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Well shoot, that ought to be good for an 80% chance of an Obama win once you run it through Nate Silver's black box calculations.
I understand that you abhor mathematical modeling, but I honestly doubt that you're this stupid, pat.
__________________

That rabbit is crazy; I'm Brian Waters!

Kotter: "You are lucky I'm truly not the vindictive or psycho type...I'd be careful from now on, and I'd just back the hell off if I were you....otherwise, the Mizzou "extension office" life might get exciting"

Kotter: "You're just gay. G-A-Y. Gay."
Posts: 22,231
Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2012, 08:15 PM   #635
RedDread RedDread is offline
Veteran
 
RedDread's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Back in KC
Casino cash: $2524
You hate the math when it doesn't add up to what you believe in.
Posts: 3,970
RedDread is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.RedDread is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.RedDread is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.RedDread is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.RedDread is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.RedDread is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.RedDread is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.RedDread is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.RedDread is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.RedDread is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.RedDread is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2012, 08:57 PM   #636
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
The Master
 
whoman69's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Marion, IA
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla View Post
I understand that you abhor mathematical modeling, but I honestly doubt that you're this stupid, pat.
Anything he doesn't believe, he ignores.

__________________
-Watching Eddie Podolak
Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
Posts: 23,081
whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2012, 09:05 PM   #637
patteeu patteeu is offline
The 23rd Pillar
 
patteeu's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla View Post
I understand that you abhor mathematical modeling, but I honestly doubt that you're this stupid, pat.
You don't seem to understand at all. I have great admiration for mathematical modeling. What I don't admire so much is faith-based adoration of mathematical models by people who don't understand them and to whom they are nothing but a black box inside of which they trust some fancy math is taking place.
__________________


"I'll see you guys in New York." ISIS Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to US military personnel upon his release from US custody at Camp Bucca in Iraq during Obama's first year in office.
Posts: 75,744
patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2012, 09:12 PM   #638
Pitt Gorilla Pitt Gorilla is offline
Banned!
 
Pitt Gorilla's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: NOT Columbia, MO 65201
Casino cash: $13808
Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
You don't seem to understand at all. I have great admiration for mathematical modeling. What I don't admire so much is faith-based adoration of mathematical models by people who don't understand them and to whom they are nothing but a black box inside of which they trust some fancy math is taking place.
Perhaps you should reread what you wrote. Your previous post attacks the model without providing a legitimate criticism. Your post above makes much more sense.
__________________

That rabbit is crazy; I'm Brian Waters!

Kotter: "You are lucky I'm truly not the vindictive or psycho type...I'd be careful from now on, and I'd just back the hell off if I were you....otherwise, the Mizzou "extension office" life might get exciting"

Kotter: "You're just gay. G-A-Y. Gay."
Posts: 22,231
Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2012, 09:17 PM   #639
patteeu patteeu is offline
The 23rd Pillar
 
patteeu's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Anything he doesn't believe, he ignores.
I have no doubt that Silver understands what he's doing and probably has a decent handle on the vulnerabilities of his assumptions. I'm equally confident that it's just a black box to you and that you're clueless about how he gets from his raw data to his final projections. IOW, it's just as much a matter of pure belief for you as it is for me.
__________________


"I'll see you guys in New York." ISIS Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to US military personnel upon his release from US custody at Camp Bucca in Iraq during Obama's first year in office.
Posts: 75,744
patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2012, 09:21 PM   #640
patteeu patteeu is offline
The 23rd Pillar
 
patteeu's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla View Post
Perhaps you should reread what you wrote. Your previous post attacks the model without providing a legitimate criticism. Your post above makes much more sense.
I think you need to reread it because my criticism is completely legitimate. I question the capabilities of Silver's model, but my criticism is of the people here who rely on it.
__________________


"I'll see you guys in New York." ISIS Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to US military personnel upon his release from US custody at Camp Bucca in Iraq during Obama's first year in office.
Posts: 75,744
patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2012, 09:23 PM   #641
Pitt Gorilla Pitt Gorilla is offline
Banned!
 
Pitt Gorilla's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: NOT Columbia, MO 65201
Casino cash: $13808
Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
I think you need to reread it because my criticism is completely legitimate. I question the capabilities of Silver's model, but my criticism is of the people here who rely on it.
I did. It's still really dumb.
__________________

That rabbit is crazy; I'm Brian Waters!

Kotter: "You are lucky I'm truly not the vindictive or psycho type...I'd be careful from now on, and I'd just back the hell off if I were you....otherwise, the Mizzou "extension office" life might get exciting"

Kotter: "You're just gay. G-A-Y. Gay."
Posts: 22,231
Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2012, 09:26 PM   #642
dirk digler dirk digler is offline
Please squeeze
 
dirk digler's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Clinton, MO
Casino cash: $12195
Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
I think you need to reread it because my criticism is completely legitimate. I question the capabilities of Silver's model, but my criticism is of the people here who rely on it.
Why? He was dead on in both 2008 and 2010.
Posts: 49,074
dirk digler has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.dirk digler has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.dirk digler has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.dirk digler has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.dirk digler has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.dirk digler has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.dirk digler has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.dirk digler has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.dirk digler has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.dirk digler has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.dirk digler has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2012, 09:33 PM   #643
Captain Obvious Captain Obvious is offline
The Planet's Only Superhero
 
Captain Obvious's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: MO
Casino cash: $8575
Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Basically he has Romney getting 330 EC votes. His model is based on the EC and not what I guess would be typical data used in most polls
330?
Posts: 2,389
Captain Obvious would the whole thing.Captain Obvious would the whole thing.Captain Obvious would the whole thing.Captain Obvious would the whole thing.Captain Obvious would the whole thing.Captain Obvious would the whole thing.Captain Obvious would the whole thing.Captain Obvious would the whole thing.Captain Obvious would the whole thing.Captain Obvious would the whole thing.Captain Obvious would the whole thing.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2012, 09:36 PM   #644
patteeu patteeu is offline
The 23rd Pillar
 
patteeu's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla View Post
I did. It's still really dumb.
You must not understand it. But that's OK. I don't care.
__________________


"I'll see you guys in New York." ISIS Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to US military personnel upon his release from US custody at Camp Bucca in Iraq during Obama's first year in office.
Posts: 75,744
patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-30-2012, 09:38 PM   #645
patteeu patteeu is offline
The 23rd Pillar
 
patteeu's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Why? He was dead on in both 2008 and 2010.
That's a pretty short track record.
__________________


"I'll see you guys in New York." ISIS Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to US military personnel upon his release from US custody at Camp Bucca in Iraq during Obama's first year in office.
Posts: 75,744
patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump




All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:15 AM.


This is a test for a client's site.
A new website that shows member-created construction site listings that need fill or have excess fill. Dirt Monkey @ https://DirtMonkey.net
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.