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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 10:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 10-30-2012, 08:39 PM   #646
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
That's a pretty short track record.
For GOPer and RWNJ idealogues grasping at straws. Of course. If you understand, Math...not so much.
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Old 10-30-2012, 08:42 PM   #647
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Originally Posted by Captain Obvious View Post
330?
I think it a little outragous as well but he hasn't been wrong since 1980 so who knows?
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So, if they were polling better than Trump and the primary goal was to prevent Hillary from becoming POTUS, perhaps it would have been a better strategic decision to nominate someone who actually had a chance of beating her and preventing that than nominating Donald Trump.
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Old 10-30-2012, 08:46 PM   #648
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I knew there was a reason for Obama visiting Florida so much lately.

CNN poll has it Romney 50%- Obama 49%

(CNN) – With eight days to go until Election Day, a new survey indicates an extremely close race for Florida's 29 electoral votes.
According to a CNN/ORC International poll released Monday, 50% of likely voters in the Sunshine State say they are backing Republican nominee Mitt Romney, with 49% supporting President Barack Obama. The former Massachusetts governor's one point margin is well within the survey's sampling error.
They are going full force in florida now. Just in my city and area where people seem to think Florida is going to be decided.

In St. Petersburg, 2,591 Obama supporters have already pitched in 69,922 hours for this campaign, and a whole lot of them are volunteering again over the next few days to get out the vote in their neighborhoods.
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Old 10-30-2012, 08:47 PM   #649
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Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter View Post
For GOPer and RWNJ idealogues grasping at straws. Of course. If you understand, Math...not so much.
Yeah, there it is. The magic of math that you don't understand. You're my poster child, Mr. Kotter.
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Old 10-30-2012, 08:48 PM   #650
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
That's a pretty short track record.
True but until he is proven wrong I don't see anything wrong with people relying on his information.
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Old 10-30-2012, 08:50 PM   #651
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I think it a little outragous as well but he hasn't been wrong since 1980 so who knows?
It's a poll on the fundamentals - it's been talked about before in this thread.

Also, he hasn't predicted -anything- yet. He created a model and then ran through all the data going back to 1980, and it "predicted" the winner in each one. The benefit of hindsight is important here, so say the least.
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Old 10-30-2012, 08:50 PM   #652
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Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
True but until he is proven wrong I don't see anything wrong with people relying on his information.
There are certainly a lot of democrat partisans clinging to it like a life preserver.
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Old 10-30-2012, 08:55 PM   #653
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Yeah, there it is. The magic of math that you don't understand. You're my poster child, Mr. Kotter.
I'm gonna quote that...heh.
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Old 10-30-2012, 08:57 PM   #654
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
There are certainly a lot of democrat partisans clinging to it like a life preserver.
And alot of conservatives praying hard he is wrong
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Old 10-30-2012, 09:05 PM   #655
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They are going full force in florida now. Just in my city and area where people seem to think Florida is going to be decided.
not my part of FL. Florida wll go Romney big imo, but I I don't get my election news from BTLS like some.
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Old 10-30-2012, 09:10 PM   #656
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not my part of FL. Florida wll go Romney big imo, but I I don't get my election news from BTLS like some.
I dont know what a BTLS is so I dont get your refrence but it seems to be some kind on insult. So if you want to insult me, you will have to try again.
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Old 10-30-2012, 09:12 PM   #657
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Gallup Daily Tracking Early Voters Oct 22 - 28th
Romney 52
Obama 45
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Old 10-30-2012, 09:15 PM   #658
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I dont know what a BTLS is so I dont get your refrence but it seems to be some kind on insult. So if you want to insult me, you will have to try again.

your pretty defensive, not an insult.
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Old 10-30-2012, 09:20 PM   #659
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Florida wll go Romney big imo,
Then why is Romeny in Florida tomorrow? If he's got it all sewed up, going to win big?
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Old 10-30-2012, 09:25 PM   #660
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Then why is Romeny in Florida tomorrow? If he's got it all sewed up, going to win big?
Get out the vote.


I can't believe many votes are undecided at this point. And if a voter can't be bothered to pick someone by now, will they bother to turn up to vote? Doubt it.


I think Florida is Romney, and probably not a last minute election night call for him. But still close - and he'd be stupid not to be there, especially since he depends on winning the state.
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