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Old 08-07-2012, 08:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 10:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 10-30-2012, 10:27 PM   #661
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WoodDraw View Post
I think Florida is Romney, and probably not a last minute election night call for him. But still close - and he'd be stupid not to be there, especially since he depends on winning the state.
FTR, this is my conclusion to.
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Old 10-30-2012, 10:37 PM   #662
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Old 10-30-2012, 10:39 PM   #663
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
I think it a little outragous as well but he hasn't been wrong since 1980 so who knows?
I do. Neither candidate will be even close to that number.
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Old 10-30-2012, 11:45 PM   #664
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
I have no doubt that Silver understands what he's doing and probably has a decent handle on the vulnerabilities of his assumptions. I'm equally confident that it's just a black box to you and that you're clueless about how he gets from his raw data to his final projections. IOW, it's just as much a matter of pure belief for you as it is for me.
Your superiority complex is staggering. I don't know how your head fits through the door. Or perhaps it never does.
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Old 10-30-2012, 11:51 PM   #665
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This is gonna be just like the 2010 midterms.
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Old 10-30-2012, 11:52 PM   #666
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61 View Post
This is gonna be just like the 2010 midterms.
Nate Silver is going to accurately predict the outcome of the race?
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Old 10-30-2012, 11:55 PM   #667
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61 View Post
This is gonna be just like the 2010 midterms.
Agreed--the outcome will be House-R, Senate-D and President - Obama.
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Old 10-30-2012, 11:59 PM   #668
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Then why is Romeny in Florida tomorrow? If he's got it all sewed up, going to win big?
For the same reason Obama has people in MN and WI and places that are supposedly locked up for him.

This all comes down to turnout and whether Obama has sold people on lackluster results. FTR, I think Obama has done just about as good a job as you can selling 7.8% unemployment, tepid growth, and an exploding debt, but its still a hard record to get people energized about. It won't surprise me if Obama wins some of these close states. It also won't surprise me if Romney wins in a landslide.

It's all about turning out the base for Obama and Romney, but with R holding a substantial lead among Indies the pressure has to be on Obama to get more people to the polls. So far, based on each demographic comparison to 2008, he could be in real trouble.
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Old 10-31-2012, 12:01 AM   #669
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
I think it a little outragous as well but he hasn't been wrong since 1980 so who knows?
Let's be clear on this, it has never been right yet. He made the model after the 2008 election. His post election model was less accurate that 538 was even though it was done after the fact. He is predicting that Romney is the first Republican candidate to take Minnesota since 1972. He predicts Michigan and Pennsylvania to Romney despite the fact that the Romney campaign doesn't really believe they can win there.
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Originally posted by Logical
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Old 10-31-2012, 12:06 AM   #670
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The impact on Indies is evident in the new CBS poll that shows Obama up 1. Romney has a 12-point lead among Dems, draws almost exactly the same amount of GOP as Obama does with the DEMs, yet Obama leads.
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Old 10-31-2012, 12:09 AM   #671
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Let's be clear on this, it has never been right yet. He made the model after the 2008 election. His post election model was less accurate that 538 was even though it was done after the fact. He is predicting that Romney is the first Republican candidate to take Minnesota since 1972. He predicts Michigan and Pennsylvania to Romney despite the fact that the Romney campaign doesn't really believe they can win there.
I doubt Romney takes MN, PA, or MI, but it could happen. Just like I don't think Obama wins FL, VA, or NC, but it could happen. Neither would surprise me much.
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Old 10-31-2012, 12:35 AM   #672
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Nate Silver was on Charlie Rose tonight, btw. Smart chap.
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Old 10-31-2012, 12:42 AM   #673
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
Agreed--the outcome will be House-R, Senate-D and President - Obama.
oh, you mean obama was campaigning and elected in 2010? yeah--I'm pretty sure he hasn't STOPPED campaigning since 2006.
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Old 10-31-2012, 07:50 AM   #674
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Literature View Post
Nate Silver was on Charlie Rose tonight, btw. Smart chap.
No doubt. There are a lot of smart chaps though and many of them are going to be wrong about this election no matter who wins.
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Old 10-31-2012, 08:10 AM   #675
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Looking at several polls that came out this morning and things are looking pretty good for the President.

PPP - Iowa = +5 Obama
PPP - Wisconsin = +5 Obama
Quinnipiac - Ohio = +5 Obama
Quinnipiac - Florida = +1 Obama
Quinnipiac - Virginia = +2 Obama

I personally don't think Obama will win Florida but it is going to be close. The rest of those polls aren't really a surprise. Ohio is going to be very tough for Romney to win at this point.
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