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Old 08-07-2012, 08:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 10:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 10-31-2012, 10:27 AM   #676
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Looking at several polls that came out this morning and things are looking pretty good for the President.

PPP - Iowa = +5 Obama
PPP - Wisconsin = +5 Obama
Quinnipiac - Ohio = +5 Obama
Quinnipiac - Florida = +1 Obama
Quinnipiac - Virginia = +2 Obama

I personally don't think Obama will win Florida but it is going to be close. The rest of those polls aren't really a surprise. Ohio is going to be very tough for Romney to win at this point.
Don't know about the PPP polls, but the CBS polls are really optimistic when it comes to Dem turnout. Romney has considerable leads (almost 20 points in VA) among Ind. the only way to show him up in any of those polls is to lean Dem by +8 points when the 2008 party break-down was actually D+3 in FL (where there is now a 12-point shift on Ind vote in Romney's favor), D+8 in OH (14-point shift in Ind in Romney's favor over 2008), and D+6 in VA (with a 20-point shift in Ind).

Will Obama have a more enthusiastic base over 2008? Maybe, but the data supports just the opposite and if the happens Obama is toast.
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Old 10-31-2012, 10:36 AM   #677
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New Public Policy Polling surveys in Wisconsin and Iowa, conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now...

http://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/summ...?id=D000026425

Wiki:

Health Care for America Now (HCAN) is a progressive political coalition of more than 1,000 organizations that joined together in 2008 in a successful effort to promote legislation to overhaul the United States health care system and extend medical benefits to most of the population that is currently uninsured. The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA or ACA) was signed into law by President Barack Obama on March 23, 2010, and HCAN was credited with being a "major contributor" to its passage. After enactment of the law, HCAN shifted its activities to defending the law from opposition attacks and advocating for the law before Congress and federal and state regulatory agencies.

Steering Committee:

AFL-CIO
American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees
American Federation of Teachers
Center for American Progress Action Fund
MoveOn.org
NAACP
National Council of La Raza
Progressive Future
Service Employees International Union
UAW

Last edited by RINGLEADER; 10-31-2012 at 11:08 AM..
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Old 10-31-2012, 11:02 AM   #678
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Looks like the Obama campaign is recognizing the reality of my post above:

Axelrod on independents in swing states: "We may not win these voters but we may not have to win these voters."

It all depends on turn-out for Obama. If he manages a > Dem +5 then I think he has a decent shot. If it is like 2010 or 2004 or even like the historical norms of Dem +2-3 I just don't see how he overcomes the huge advantage that Romney is posting with Independents in almost every poll.

Just for grins, if you go back and flip the IND vote from 2008 to reflect what the poll shows Romney is drawing in OH Obama still wins by a couple points, but if the partisan advantage on the left falls under 5% then Romney wins.

Last edited by RINGLEADER; 10-31-2012 at 11:20 AM..
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Old 10-31-2012, 11:24 AM   #679
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New PPP Ohio Poll = Obama +5

Like I said I think Ohio is going to be Romney's downfall.

Quote:
Obama’s already amassed a large lead in the state. 33% of voters say they’ve already cast their ballots and he leads 62-35 with them. Romney has a 50-45 advantage with those yet to vote.
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Old 10-31-2012, 11:36 AM   #680
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Doing some playing around with electoral college maps and if Obama wins Ohio Romney has to win every swing state.

An early tell for election night is how goes NH. Right now the polls have Obama winning NH by 2-3 if that happens then I suspect Obama will win re-election
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Old 10-31-2012, 12:19 PM   #681
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This chart makes it look as if all of the major trackers are in agreement (as of today). If Romney pulls this off it's going to make a lot of these sites look worthless.

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Old 10-31-2012, 12:29 PM   #682
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Doing some playing around with electoral college maps and if Obama wins Ohio Romney has to win every swing state.

An early tell for election night is how goes NH. Right now the polls have Obama winning NH by 2-3 if that happens then I suspect Obama will win re-election
I would contest that an "early tell" is the early voting that is going for Romney almost 2-1 when at the same time in 2008 was going for Obama 2-1
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Old 10-31-2012, 12:37 PM   #683
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
I would contest that an "early tell" is the early voting that is going for Romney almost 2-1 when at the same time in 2008 was going for Obama 2-1
Here is a site that is tracking it. If you look at the swing states like Iowa, NC, and Nevada the Dems have a pretty good lead

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html
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Old 10-31-2012, 12:41 PM   #684
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Looks like if the margin of error is +- 3 OH - NC are toss ups...
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Old 10-31-2012, 12:42 PM   #685
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Here is a site that is tracking it. If you look at the swing states like Iowa, NC, and Nevada the Dems have a pretty good lead

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html
How do you figure, sportsfan?
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Old 10-31-2012, 12:54 PM   #686
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Daily update increases Obama's probability of winning to 77.4%. They have the popular vote 50.4-48.5 for Obama. An article on the front page talks about how the national numbers don't add up with the statewide numbers. Jiveturkey listed a chart in the article that shoes that other services are calling it the same as 538.

The state numbers are moving towards Obama. In Colorado Obama is now over 60% as is Virginia. Florida is under 60% for Romney. Iowa is closing on 75% to Obama while Ohio is over 77%. New Hampshire is also over 75% for Obama. Every other state is over 80% including Nevada and Wisconsin.
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Old 10-31-2012, 12:59 PM   #687
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
How do you figure, sportsfan?
Well if you look at that site it has some real time reporting..

Iowa - D -44 R-32
Nevada - D -45 R-38
NC - D-49 R- 32
Florida - D-43 R - 41
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Old 10-31-2012, 01:02 PM   #688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Well if you look at that site it has some real time reporting..

Iowa - D -44 R-32
Nevada - D -45 R-38
NC - D-49 R- 32
Florida - D-43 R - 41
That's by voter Reg. That does not say who they voted for. Contrary to popular belief a Dem can vote for a Repub and vice-versa
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Old 10-31-2012, 01:29 PM   #689
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Still comes back to turnout. Doesn't much matter how far ahead Obama/Romney are ahead/behind today if they're just pushing their election day vote up. If Romney's lead with independents holds then Obama is going to have to generate +5 Dem turnout advantage or he's toast. Conversely, if Romney doesn't get the GOP out to temper that historic advantage then he's toast.
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Old 10-31-2012, 01:34 PM   #690
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Daily update increases Obama's probability of winning to 77.4%. They have the popular vote 50.4-48.5 for Obama. An article on the front page talks about how the national numbers don't add up with the statewide numbers. Jiveturkey listed a chart in the article that shoes that other services are calling it the same as 538.

The state numbers are moving towards Obama. In Colorado Obama is now over 60% as is Virginia. Florida is under 60% for Romney. Iowa is closing on 75% to Obama while Ohio is over 77%. New Hampshire is also over 75% for Obama. Every other state is over 80% including Nevada and Wisconsin.
Wow - so Obama by a Landslide - got it...
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