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Old 08-07-2012, 08:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 10:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 10-31-2012, 09:20 PM   #706
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post


Channel 5 in West Palm Beach Florida(a very rich Republican stronghold in Florida) obtained an internal Romney camp email. The email was from their Director pushing the panic button. It said, "Early and absentee balloting is starting to look troubling". The conclusion, the Democratic turnout machine is cleaning our clocks.
Dem Early Vote Lead In Florida Down 70% Over 2008
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...ead-Down-In-FL
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Old 10-31-2012, 09:22 PM   #707
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
You get "cleaning our clocks" out of "starting to look troubling"?
Sorry to burst your bubble. Not my words. The Romeny camps own email words.
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Old 10-31-2012, 09:23 PM   #708
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Dem Early Vote Lead In Florida Down 70% Over 2008
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...ead-Down-In-FL
briet bart is now posted as reputable information?
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Old 10-31-2012, 09:23 PM   #709
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Sorry to burst your bubble. Not my words. The Romeny camps own email words.
You're saying their words were "Cleaning our clocks"?
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Old 10-31-2012, 09:24 PM   #710
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
briet bart is now posted as reputable information?
You can check any source you want. It's a fact that Dem turnout among early voters is significantly down from 2008.

Sorry to burst your bubble.
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Old 10-31-2012, 09:26 PM   #711
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The facts on early voting are this:

1. Dems vote early more than Repubs
2. Dem early voting is down significantly from 2008
3. Repub early voting is much higher than 2008
4. Repubs have higher turnout on actual election day


So you can read that a couple ways
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Old 10-31-2012, 09:30 PM   #712
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
You can check any source you want. It's a fact that Dem turnout among early voters is significantly down from 2008.

Sorry to burst your bubble.
There is movement towards Obama in Florida, Thats why they are sending Romney down here all day today and the local Romney office is sending panicking emails to the national office.

Obama and Biden are here. There is something going on. This state should be as safe as Texas for Romney and its going to be a sqweaker. I still think Romney should win but he spent all day down here instead of Ohio, Colorado, Iowa etc. Thats not good.
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Old 10-31-2012, 09:33 PM   #713
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
There is movement towards Obama in Florida, Thats why they are sending Romney down here all day today and the local Romney office is sending panicking emails to the national office.

Obama and Biden are here. There is something going on. This state should be as safe as Texas for Romney and its going to be a sqweaker. I still think Romney should win but he spent all day down here instead of Ohio, Colorado, Iowa etc. Thats not good.
I don't think Florida was ever a "lock" for Romney
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Old 10-31-2012, 09:40 PM   #714
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
This state should be as safe as Texas for Romney and its going to be a sqweaker.
since when was FL a lock? Thats like saying Ohio should be as safe as DC and its going to be a close one instead...
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Old 10-31-2012, 09:47 PM   #715
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
. I still think Romney should win but he spent all day down here instead of Ohio, Colorado, Iowa etc. Thats not good.
I thought you said obama had FL under control yesterday. Now "Romney should win" . good stuff
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Old 10-31-2012, 09:49 PM   #716
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I thought you said obama had FL under control yesterday. Now "Romney should win" . good stuff
I changed my opinion a month ago. Try to keep up.
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Old 10-31-2012, 10:38 PM   #717
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I still think this cesspool should turn some good out of all this bitching and set up a bet. Both sides commit money, and agree to the (mutually agreed upon) charities of the other choice.
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Old 10-31-2012, 10:48 PM   #718
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5 more days and it's all over for Bathouse Barry.

tick tock tick tock...
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Old 11-01-2012, 08:56 AM   #719
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I like to check 538 and RCP each morning and both are trending towards an Obama victory.

Using my way back machine this feels like the polar opposite of the Bush/Kerry race where Dems were super confident at the end and disregarding the information in-front of them.

There's no doubt that the enthusiasm/turnout for Obama is going to be way down from 2008 but Bush won under similar circumstance.

And before I get my ass handed to me I'd like to point out that I'm not voting for Obama.
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Old 11-01-2012, 09:50 AM   #720
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The O-Bots keep hugging their 538 security blankets tight.

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