538

[whoman69]

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

[jiveturkey]

Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61

The O-Bots keep hugging their 538 security blankets tight.

RCP is trending towards Obama as well. I don't check at of the other tracker sites.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61

5 more days and it's all over for Bathouse Fece.

tick tock tick tock...

Would you like to make a friendly bet?

[Comrade Crapski]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Would you like to make a friendly bet?

You won't honor it. O-bots have no integrity. Now **** off.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61

You won't honor it. O-bots have no integrity. Now **** off.

I always honor my bets. It can be something simple like a donation to our favorite charities.

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61

The O-Bots keep hugging their 538 security blankets tight.

If you want to post a source that uses numbers, not opinion, to say Romney is going to win, be my guest. Don't give me the guy from Colorado that says Romney is going to get 330 EC. Despite the claim his system has been right every election since 1980 it was developed after the last election and has never been tested on an election that hasn't already been finished.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by whoman69

If you want to post a source that uses numbers, not opinion, to say Romney is going to win, be my guest. Don't give me the guy from Colorado that says Romney is going to get 330 EC. Despite the claim his system has been right every election since 1980 it was developed after the last election and has never been tested on an election that hasn't already been finished.

Because numbers mean math and math means it must be right even if we don't understand the math! /whoman69

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by patteeu

Because numbers mean math and math means it must be right even if we don't understand the math! /whoman69

You admitted you didn't even know that Rasmussen had state polls. Give you a hint, they're the only ones showing Romney ahead or even close in swing states.

But I have to bow to you since you do hold claim to 9 of the top 10 spots in recent studies of the most intelligent people on the planet. I'll let you get back to your work. What is it you do? Same thing you do every evening, try and take over the world.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by whoman69

You admitted you didn't even know that Rasmussen had state polls. Give you a hint, they're the only ones showing Romney ahead or even close in swing states.

What does that have to do with being in love with a black box that tells you what you want to hear?

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61

You won't honor it. O-bots have no integrity. Now **** off.

Surely if you are honest, even you have to see the irony in this post.

[VAChief]

Originally Posted by patteeu

What does that have to do with being in love with a black box that tells you what you want to hear?

The 538 formula only takes existing poll information and issues a probability. Even at 75-25 it is far from stating who for certain will be the winner. It basically is saying Mitt Romney has as much chance to win the election as Dwayne Wade has as at missing a free throw or Ricky Weeks has at getting a hit. I bet if you gave Magic Mitt those odds in 2009 prior to any thoughts of entering the slew of primaries he would have taken them.

This thing is far from certain.

[whoman69]

Originally Posted by patteeu

What does that have to do with being in love with a black box that tells you what you want to hear?

You are in no position to talk about only listening to things you want to hear. You are the poster child for that malady.

[ChiefsandO'sfan]

President Barack Obama could lose his home state of Illinois in November, a new poll shows.

A poll conducted by Illinois-based pollster and political strategist Michael McKeon found Obama leading Republican Mitt Romney by 49 percent to 37 percent in Cook County, the home of Chicago. That puts him ahead by a far thinner margin than expected in a county he should be winning handsomely.

Cook is the most Democratic leaning county in the state. It is also the most populous.

Those numbers do not bode well for the president.

“He has to come out of Cook County with a big lead or he’s gonna have problems downstate,” explained McKeon, who said that based on the numbers he had seen, Obama polled only in the forties in downstate Illinois.

“It’s not like his policies are very popular downstate,” McKeon said. “He’s viewed as more part of Chicago than he is part of Illinois.”

According to the poll, which surveyed 629 registered voters last week, Obama’s problems are not in Chicago proper, but in suburban Cook County.

In the city of Chicago itself, he retains a 60-29 lead over Romney. But the Republican challenger leads 45-38 in the surrounding areas. Across the county as a whole, Romney leads 43-31 among independent voters, a crucial voting bloc. Romney also holds a 44-38 lead among male voters, and a 53-40 lead among white voters.

Illinois is not considered a swing state by any means; it is seen as solidly blue, and has been for the past two election cycles. But McKeon pointed to the 2010 gubernatorial race when Republican Bill Brady came within a single percentage point of now-Gov. Pat Quinn because Brady won most of the downstate counties. That is a feat Romney could repeat this year, leaving Obama vulnerable if he cannot expand his lead in Cook County.

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/20/sh...#ixzz2AzgGjBNn

[whoman69]

An interesting football related quote from the polls from Wednesday and how they effect the chances of election.

There were 12 polls published on Wednesday among Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin. Mr. Obama held the lead in 11 of the 12 surveys; the exception was a survey by the University of Iowa, which had Mr. Obama down by about one point there, but also had a very small sample size (about 300 likely voters). On average, Mr. Obama led in the polls of these states by 3.9 percentage points.

None of this ought to have been surprising, exactly, if you have been attentive to the polls rather than the pundits. It was a pretty good day of surveys for Mr. Obama but not a great one: for the most part, the polls were coming in close to FiveThirtyEight forecasts in each state, give or take a modest outlier here and there.

Mr. Obama is not a sure thing, by any means. It is a close race. His chances of holding onto his Electoral College lead and converting it into another term are equivalent to the chances of an N.F.L. team winning when it leads by a field goal with three minutes left to play in the fourth quarter. There are plenty of things that could go wrong, and sometimes they will.

But it turns out that an N.F.L. team that leads by a field goal with three minutes left to go winds up winning the game 79 percent of the time. Those were Mr. Obama’s chances in the FiveThirtyEight forecast as of Wednesday: 79 percent.

Not coincidentally, these are also about Mr. Obama’s chances of winning Ohio, according to the forecast.

How those numbers effected the latest simulation is an increase in the chance of Obama winning up to 79% with a popular vote forecast at 50.5-48.6 margin and an EC average of 300.4.

These are the battleground states in order of closeness and their trend toward Obama:
Florida Romney 58.8% up
Virginia Obama 61.3% up
Colorado Obama 62.6% up
New Hampshire Obama 75.2% down
Iowa Obama 78.4% up
Ohio Obama 79.9% up
North Carolina 80.8% up
Nevada 85.2% up
Wisconsin 88.% down

All other races are at least 95% towards one candidate with the exception of district 2 in Nebraska (94% Romney) and district 2 in Maine 93.7% Obama.

[bsp4444]

Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan

President Barack Obama could lose his home state of Illinois in November, a new poll shows.

A poll conducted by Illinois-based pollster and political strategist Michael McKeon found Obama leading Republican Mitt Romney by 49 percent to 37 percent in Cook County, the home of Chicago. That puts him ahead by a far thinner margin than expected in a county he should be winning handsomely.

Cook is the most Democratic leaning county in the state. It is also the most populous.

Those numbers do not bode well for the president.

“He has to come out of Cook County with a big lead or he’s gonna have problems downstate,” explained McKeon, who said that based on the numbers he had seen, Obama polled only in the forties in downstate Illinois.

“It’s not like his policies are very popular downstate,” McKeon said. “He’s viewed as more part of Chicago than he is part of Illinois.”

According to the poll, which surveyed 629 registered voters last week, Obama’s problems are not in Chicago proper, but in suburban Cook County.

In the city of Chicago itself, he retains a 60-29 lead over Romney. But the Republican challenger leads 45-38 in the surrounding areas. Across the county as a whole, Romney leads 43-31 among independent voters, a crucial voting bloc. Romney also holds a 44-38 lead among male voters, and a 53-40 lead among white voters.

Illinois is not considered a swing state by any means; it is seen as solidly blue, and has been for the past two election cycles. But McKeon pointed to the 2010 gubernatorial race when Republican Bill Brady came within a single percentage point of now-Gov. Pat Quinn because Brady won most of the downstate counties. That is a feat Romney could repeat this year, leaving Obama vulnerable if he cannot expand his lead in Cook County.

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/20/sh...#ixzz2AzgGjBNn

Who's winning Michigan, Romney's home state?

[bsp4444]

Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61

The O-Bots keep hugging their 538 security blankets tight.

Anybody get the Kiplinger Letter? They have it Obama 277 to Romney 235 with 26 toss up EC votes.