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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-01-2012, 12:55 PM   #736
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Originally Posted by bsp4444 View Post
Anybody get the Kiplinger Letter? They have it Obama 277 to Romney 235 with 26 toss up EC votes.
So they have declared Obama the winner?
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Old 11-01-2012, 12:57 PM   #737
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"This is not an endorsement, just straight talk about the probable outcome." That's how they worded it.
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Old 11-01-2012, 12:59 PM   #738
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
If you want to post a source that uses numbers, not opinion, to say Romney is going to win, be my guest. Don't give me the guy from Colorado that says Romney is going to get 330 EC. Despite the claim his system has been right every election since 1980 it was developed after the last election and has never been tested on an election that hasn't already been finished.
Once this election is over and Obama wins, he'll tweak his formula to account for the results, and once again he'll be able to say that his system has been correct on every election since 1980. I doubt he'll mention that he really means retroactively correct.
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Old 11-01-2012, 01:06 PM   #739
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Originally Posted by ChiefsandO'sfan View Post
President Barack Obama could lose his home state of Illinois in November if a hurricane develops on Lake Michigan and wipes out Chicago on Tuesday morning, a new poll shows.
That is just really, really stupid. I made it a little more plausible.

However, Mitt will be losing his home state(s) of MA and MI, and Ryan will be losing WI, so nice going there.
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Old 11-01-2012, 01:07 PM   #740
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
You are in no position to talk about only listening to things you want to hear. You are the poster child for that malady.
If I'm the poster child, it seems like I'd be an expert at identifying such things. The difference between you and me is that I recognize that my beliefs are based more on assumptions than math. You don't seem to recognize that your beliefs are no different because you're dazzled by an abundance of numerical data and a smart guy who manipulates them in ways that might as well be magic to you.

Your challenge to "use ... numbers not opinion" is a confession of your ignorance.
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Old 11-01-2012, 01:08 PM   #741
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Originally Posted by bsp4444 View Post
"This is not an endorsement, just straight talk about the probable outcome." That's how they worded it.
Unacceptable!
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As long as Jesus Christ was the president of the US and approved of it Yes.
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Old 11-01-2012, 01:15 PM   #742
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Good article on the others besides Nate that are using statistical analysis to predict who is going to win...

http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012...s-obama-romney

Quote:
Wang runs the Meta-Analysis model for the Princeton Election Consortium. Professor Wang, who made a name for himself in neuroscience and biophysics, took the statistical analyses he'd applied in those fields and transposed them to the mess of electoral politics. He developed the model in 2004 initially to help predict the most strategic way to allocate of campaign donations. The model, based on a slew of state polls, calculates each candidate's probability of winning in the Electoral College if the election were held today.

Track record: The group behind Meta-Analysis stakes out their election-prediction street cred like so: "In 2004, the median decided-voter calculation captured the exact final outcome. In 2008, the final-week decided-voter calculation was within 1 electoral vote."

Current prediction: As of October 30, Wang gives Barack Obama a generous 92-98 percent chance of reelection, and an estimated 303 electoral votes.
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Old 11-01-2012, 01:24 PM   #743
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
If I'm the poster child, it seems like I'd be an expert at identifying such things. The difference between you and me is that I recognize that my beliefs are based more on assumptions than math. You don't seem to recognize that your beliefs are no different because you're dazzled by an abundance of numerical data and a smart guy who manipulates them in ways that might as well be magic to you.

Your challenge to "use ... numbers not opinion" is a confession of your ignorance.



I urge you to provide 1 piece of evidence where you thought at any point you were wrong....about anything. It cannot be done.
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Old 11-01-2012, 01:35 PM   #744
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Republican New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg endorses Obama.
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Old 11-01-2012, 01:45 PM   #745
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
If I'm the poster child, it seems like I'd be an expert at identifying such things. The difference between you and me is that I recognize that my beliefs are based more on assumptions than math. You don't seem to recognize that your beliefs are no different because you're dazzled by an abundance of numerical data and a smart guy who manipulates them in ways that might as well be magic to you.

Your challenge to "use ... numbers not opinion" is a confession of your ignorance.
Opinions are like assholes, and you're the biggest one here. Yet you don't bring anything to back your opinion except your opinion.

Your view of anyone who posts contrary to you


Your view of yourself
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Old 11-01-2012, 01:51 PM   #746
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Quote:
You Too Can Be Like Former Daily Kos Blogger Nate Silver
By: Erick Erickson (Diary) | November 1st, 2012 at 02:18 PM | 10


Nate Silver has all the liberals calmed down these days. he is the Xanax of the activist left, nervous about Tuesday. In an article HotAir linked to earlier today about rich, white San Francisco residents so upset by the thought of a Romney win they can’t use their home gyms, Mary Katharine Ham found this hilarious quote about a liberal who watched the first debate:

“After I read Nate Silver the other day, I felt better,” Blume said.

It is as if the former Daily Kos blogger who went on to be the lefty pollster du jour at the New York Times is some sort of magician. Actually, he’s not. He’s a smart guy to be sure, but my buddy Sean Davis has a great must read about how you too can be the next Nate Silver with a cheap Microsoft Excel spreadsheet plugin whether or not you’ve ever had a Daily Kos account.

I spent a few hours re-building Nate Silver’s basic Monte Carlo poll simulation model from the ground up. It is a simplified version, lacking fancy pollster weights and economic assumptions and state-by-state covariance factors, but it contains the same foundation of state poll data that supports Nate Silver’s famous FiveThirtyEight model. That is, they are both built upon the same assumption that state polls, on average, are correct.

After running the simulation every day for several weeks, I noticed something odd: the winning probabilities it produced for Obama and Romney were nearly identical to those reported by FiveThirtyEight. Day after day, night after night. For example, based on the polls included in RealClearPolitics’ various state averages as of Tuesday night, the Sean Davis model suggested that Obama had a 73.0% chance of winning the Electoral College. In contrast, Silver’s FiveThirtyEight model as of Tuesday night forecast that Obama had a 77.4% chance of winning the Electoral College.

So what gives? If it’s possible to recreate Silver’s model using just Microsoft Excel, a cheap Monte Carlo plug-in, and poll results that are widely available, then what real predictive value does Silver’s model have?

What might make the difference between the Sean Davis and the Nate Silver model? Well, Silver, in 2008, had access to internal Obama polling that he never disclosed. Maybe he has access to some this time as well.

In other words, it is worth noting to those on the right beating up Silver that the data is shaping his model. He is not shaping the data.

But it is also worth noting that for all the super-special pride accredited to Nate Silver and his predictive powers, you too can do it with a cheap Excel plugin.

Lastly, as a number of people have noted, including Sean Davis in this piece, the big issue this year is whether or not the state polls are wrong. If they are, then Silver is wrong. If they are right, Silver is right. It’s that simple. As Sean notes about 2010

State polling averages were wrong in Alaska (they said Joe Miller would be elected), wrong in Colorado (they said Ken Buck would be elected), and embarrassingly wrong in Nevada (they said Harry Reid would be involuntarily retired). FiveThirtyEight incorrectly forecast the winner in each of those states, perfectly reflecting the inaccurate information contained in the state polls.

Thus, of the five major state races in which polls were wrong over the last four years, Silver only got one right. I’m no baseball scout, but batting .200 when it counts won’t get you into the big leagues, let alone the All-Star game.
Well now...
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Old 11-01-2012, 01:53 PM   #747
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Republican New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg endorses Obama.
That's an endorsement I could live without. Now that he's the soda Nazi, the only bigger joke out of NYC is Trump.
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Old 11-01-2012, 02:23 PM   #748
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Originally Posted by J Diddy View Post


I urge you to provide 1 piece of evidence where you thought at any point you were wrong....about anything. It cannot be done.
I'll let one of my critics testify on my behalf:

Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
You admitted you didn't even know that Rasmussen had state polls.
I had said that I didn't think Gallup or Rasmussen did state by state polling. I knew one of them didn't, but I didn't think the other did either. It turns out that I was wrong and I had no problem admitting it. Satisfied?
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Old 11-01-2012, 02:27 PM   #749
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Originally Posted by bsp4444 View Post
Republican New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg endorses Obama.
Bloomberg was a lifelong democrat who only became a Republican because it afforded him an easier path to election as Mayor of NYC. No one confuses him with a real Republican. This is a case where RINO is actually appropriate.
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Old 11-01-2012, 02:27 PM   #750
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Opinions are like assholes, and you're the biggest one here. Yet you don't bring anything to back your opinion except your opinion.

Your view of anyone who posts contrary to you

Your view of yourself
I sense a monster inferiority complex at work here.
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