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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-01-2012, 06:33 PM   #766
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Just coming out with a tax cut doesn't mean it will be effective (in the way that Clinton's tax cuts were). Cash for clunkers spurred a lot of people to buy cars, but ultimately all it did was rob future sales and cost the government a lot of money to try to artificially create the illusion of growth in the auto industry.

My point was that Obama refuses to do those things that good presidents do. His tax cuts were created to be a talking point during the 2012 election instead of a way to create sustained growth.
Half the stimulus was payroll tax cuts. Your saying that was bad, correct?
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Old 11-01-2012, 06:44 PM   #767
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Half the stimulus was payroll tax cuts. Your saying that was bad, correct?
Saying it was ineffective at creating sustained growth/revenues.
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Old 11-01-2012, 10:16 PM   #768
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Latest numbers are in. The probability of an Obama victory is now up to 80.8%. That is even high than it was after the Democratic convention. The popular vote is projected as 50.5-48.4 in favor of Obama. Doesn't look like any of the state numbers have been updated yet but I'll go into some details on what the situation looks like.

States that are favored at least 80% to Obama 253 EC
States that are favored at least 75% to Obama 281 EC
States that are favored at least 60% to Obama 303 EC
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Old 11-01-2012, 10:50 PM   #769
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Latest numbers are in. The probability of an Obama victory is now up to 80.8%. That is even high than it was after the Democratic convention. The popular vote is projected as 50.5-48.4 in favor of Obama. Doesn't look like any of the state numbers have been updated yet but I'll go into some details on what the situation looks like.

States that are favored at least 80% to Obama 253 EC
States that are favored at least 75% to Obama 281 EC
States that are favored at least 60% to Obama 303 EC
Like I've said before, NS's modeling I'm sure is professionally done and is the result of thousands of data passes, but if on election night OH goes for Romney this modeling will vaporize like a pound of butter under a 20 mega-ton thermonuclear blast.
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Old 11-01-2012, 10:55 PM   #770
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Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
Like I've said before, NS's modeling I'm sure is professionally done and is the result of thousands of data passes, but if on election night OH goes for Romney this modeling will vaporize like a pound of butter under a 20 mega-ton thermonuclear blast.
Why would it vaporize? It still gives Romney a 1 in 5 chance of winning (both Ohio and the election). That's not insignificant.
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Old 11-01-2012, 11:05 PM   #771
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Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla View Post
Why would it vaporize? It still gives Romney a 1 in 5 chance of winning (both Ohio and the election). That's not insignificant.
Silver can't be wrong unless he gets to 100%, right?
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Old 11-01-2012, 11:06 PM   #772
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Latest numbers are in. The probability of an Obama victory is now up to 80.8%. That is even high than it was after the Democratic convention. The popular vote is projected as 50.5-48.4 in favor of Obama. Doesn't look like any of the state numbers have been updated yet but I'll go into some details on what the situation looks like.

States that are favored at least 80% to Obama 253 EC
States that are favored at least 75% to Obama 281 EC
States that are favored at least 60% to Obama 303 EC
Hey, Romney had a good couple of weeks there, but face it, you nutjobs knew deep down in your tiny blackened-from-hate hearts that a tool like that couldn't maintain his slight momentum.

Considering what dicks you've been, it kind of seems unfair that you should continue enjoy the good fortune of having Obama as your president. But Americans, particularly Democrats, are good people who will continue to let you live among us as if you were regular people and not the unstable crackpots that most of you are.

Better luck next time with Santorum in 2016!
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Old 11-01-2012, 11:07 PM   #773
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The middle of the road has spoken.
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Old 11-01-2012, 11:07 PM   #774
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Why would it vaporize? It still gives Romney a 1 in 5 chance of winning (both Ohio and the election). That's not insignificant.
Because Silver's program assumes Obama winning OH. If he loses that state it upsets the apple-cart in the same way that InTrade will collapse within moments of OH being called for Romney (and the converse occurring if Romney loses OH).
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Old 11-01-2012, 11:47 PM   #775
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Silver can't be wrong unless he gets to 100%, right?
What do you mean by wrong? I guess I assumed you understood probability.
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Old 11-01-2012, 11:47 PM   #776
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The middle of the road has spoken.
Is it starting to settle in yet? That its the 4th quarter with 2 minutes left and Romney needs a TD, the 2-pt conversion, an onside kick and another score?
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Old 11-02-2012, 12:18 AM   #777
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
Hey, Romney had a good couple of weeks there, but face it, you nutjobs knew deep down in your tiny blackened-from-hate hearts that a tool like that couldn't maintain his slight momentum.

Considering what dicks you've been, it kind of seems unfair that you should continue enjoy the good fortune of having Obama as your president. But Americans, particularly Democrats, are good people who will continue to let you live among us as if you were regular people and not the unstable crackpots that most of you are.

Better luck next time with Santorum in 2016!
People like you suck..
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Old 11-02-2012, 12:23 AM   #778
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Is it starting to settle in yet? That its the 4th quarter with 2 minutes left and Romney needs a TD, the 2-pt conversion, an onside kick and another score?
Actually, all he needs is for 1.5% fewer Dems and 1.5% more GOP and retain the advantages that he currently enjoys among INDs. If that happens, he'll win. If Obama gets the same turnout then he'll win.
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Old 11-02-2012, 06:49 AM   #779
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The middle of the road has spoken.
It certainly wasn't you.
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Quote:
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Old 11-02-2012, 06:51 AM   #780
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Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla View Post
What do you mean by wrong? I guess I assumed you understood probability.
He doesn't understand that black box.
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