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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-02-2012, 07:49 PM   #841
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Originally Posted by Calcountry View Post
Yeah, no shit.
Or we could have Eddie Munster one step away.
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Old 11-02-2012, 10:05 PM   #842
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
No big surprise. If you compare everyone to you, everyone is pseudo-intellectual.
You're the one putting me on a pedestal, not me. The psuedo-intellectuals are the ones puffing their chests out because they believe in math even though they don't really understand the math involved. Maybe you'd prefer the term intellectual boot-lickers or intellectual groupies.
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Old 11-02-2012, 10:09 PM   #843
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Not in this thread but in the Republican party and defintely in the Tea Party branch.
No more so than in the democrat party and definitely in the OWS branch.
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Old 11-02-2012, 10:26 PM   #844
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
No more so than in the democrat party and definitely in the OWS branch.
I agree somewhat. More so in the Republican party but still........ we are a central pubic, they want a central government. No extremes on either side.
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Old 11-02-2012, 10:32 PM   #845
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
I agree somewhat. More so in the Republican party but still........ we are a central pubic, they want a central government. No extremes on either side.
Personally, I think the tea party is the light of hope for our country. I don't think you and I mean the same thing when we talk about the tea party.
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Old 11-02-2012, 10:39 PM   #846
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Personally, I think the tea party is the light of hope for our country. I don't think you and I mean the same thing when we talk about the tea party.
After the election that light is going to go out or disassociate itself from the Republican Party.
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Old 11-02-2012, 11:37 PM   #847
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Waiting in line with another voter story.

Asked who they were voting for and they said as of yesterday it was Romney Was undecided until last week. But last night when she saw the video of Obama hugging and comforting the women who had lost everything and was crying etc she said it reminded her that Obama probably cared more about her and knew more about her struggles than Romney, so she is giving Obama another chance.


touching, but ultimately, who gives a shit? it has nothing to do with governing a country. teddy bears can be rather comforting, but you don't see people trying to elect them. take that disney shit out of here, it's ****ing weak.
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Old 11-03-2012, 06:16 AM   #848
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touching, but ultimately, who gives a shit? it has nothing to do with governing a country. teddy bears can be rather comforting, but you don't see people trying to elect them. take that disney shit out of here, it's ****ing weak.
I agree it's a stupid ass trigger reason to vote for someone. If this one person changed their vote because of the way sandy was handeled, surely there are more voters out there like this one.

And the feeling that this or that presidential candidate knows my struggles, knows what my life is like has decided many elections.
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Old 11-03-2012, 06:21 AM   #849
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2008 and 2010 were easy contests to predict. Both outcomes were basically known for months. That's not the case in this election.

When did you think Obama was going to win? Most people would say September of 2008.

When did you think Republicans would kick as in 2010? Probably July or earlier in 2010.

2012 is a different animal.
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Old 11-03-2012, 06:54 AM   #850
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Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
2008 and 2010 were easy contests to predict. Both outcomes were basically known for months. That's not the case in this election.

When did you think Obama was going to win? Most people would say September of 2008.

When did you think Republicans would kick as in 2010? Probably July or earlier in 2010.

2012 is a different animal.
I can tell from this post that Hoover knows Mitt Romney is going to win Iowa.
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Old 11-03-2012, 07:06 AM   #851
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Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
2008 and 2010 were easy contests to predict. Both outcomes were basically known for months. That's not the case in this election.

When did you think Obama was going to win? Most people would say September of 2008.

When did you think Republicans would kick as in 2010? Probably July or earlier in 2010.

2012 is a different animal.
Hoover you know I respect your opinion. When it comes to Iowa Republican politics, U DA MAN. I find your national insight very helpful.

Some of the talking heads on TV have talked about its different this year. but, they just seem like partisan hacks. I know you are a partisan but hopefully not a hack.

Can you explain how its different this year?
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Old 11-03-2012, 07:12 AM   #852
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
I can tell from this post that Hoover knows Mitt Romney is going to win Iowa.
Project much?
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Old 11-03-2012, 07:30 AM   #853
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
I can tell from this post that Hoover knows Mitt Romney is going to win Iowa.
He just might; but in the end, it won't matter.
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Old 11-03-2012, 07:32 AM   #854
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The biggest difference is that 2012 is not a wave election. 2008 was a wave election for the Democrats, and 2010 was a wave election for Republicans.

I don't believe that 2012 is going to be a wave election. One reason for that is because we have an incumbent president running for re-election. The last time we had that was 2004. By nature an incumbent plays defense, which is a huge advantage. That said, I think Obama has squandered that advantage by the type of campaign he's running.
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Old 11-03-2012, 07:48 AM   #855
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The biggest difference is that 2012 is not a wave election. 2008 was a wave election for the Democrats, and 2010 was a wave election for Republicans.

I don't believe that 2012 is going to be a wave election. One reason for that is because we have an incumbent president running for re-election. The last time we had that was 2004. By nature an incumbent plays defense, which is a huge advantage. That said, I think Obama has squandered that advantage by the type of campaign he's running.
I think we can both agree that the Republicans should have control of the Senate, Congress and the Presidency next year. But, they blew it and it will remain status quo.

I think the Republicans lost the Presidency because they ran a weak candidate against a vulnerable incumbent. You still think that Romney will win the Presidency, correct?

I know without a shadow of doubt that the Republicans lost control of the senate due to the extreme Tea Party candidates that the Republicans allowed to control their party. Why do you think the Republicans don't have control of the Senate?
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