Home Mail MemberMap Chat (0) Wallpapers
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > The Lounge > D.C.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-07-2012, 08:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
The Master
 
whoman69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Marion, IA
Casino cash: $5000
538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 10:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
Posts: 23,081
whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-03-2012, 05:13 PM   #886
Pitt Gorilla Pitt Gorilla is offline
Banned!
 
Pitt Gorilla's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: NOT Columbia, MO 65201
Casino cash: $13284
Quote:
Originally Posted by WoodDraw View Post
Poor Nate Silver is getting hammered in the press. After the election he's either going to be the happiest person on earth or on suicide watch.
He'll be fine. People with rudimentary understandings of statistics get that he'll be fine.
__________________

That rabbit is crazy; I'm Brian Waters!

Kotter: "You are lucky I'm truly not the vindictive or psycho type...I'd be careful from now on, and I'd just back the hell off if I were you....otherwise, the Mizzou "extension office" life might get exciting"

Kotter: "You're just gay. G-A-Y. Gay."
Posts: 22,178
Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-03-2012, 05:14 PM   #887
Pitt Gorilla Pitt Gorilla is offline
Banned!
 
Pitt Gorilla's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: NOT Columbia, MO 65201
Casino cash: $13284
Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Yes, that's true. For both of us.
My undergraduate actuarial students build similar election (and other) models just about every semester. Silver deserves his press, but building a similar model isn't rocket surgery . I don't know all of his assumptions, but it wouldn't be difficult to tweak scalers to approximate them.
__________________

That rabbit is crazy; I'm Brian Waters!

Kotter: "You are lucky I'm truly not the vindictive or psycho type...I'd be careful from now on, and I'd just back the hell off if I were you....otherwise, the Mizzou "extension office" life might get exciting"

Kotter: "You're just gay. G-A-Y. Gay."

Last edited by Pitt Gorilla; 11-03-2012 at 05:33 PM..
Posts: 22,178
Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-03-2012, 05:16 PM   #888
patteeu patteeu is offline
The 23rd Pillar
 
patteeu's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
As cdcox has mentioned, he's largely getting hammered by people who don't understand his model, or can't refute it.

I imagine he's very comfortable.
He's getting hammered by quite a few people who agree with cdcox that Nate Silver's model is only as good as the polls on which it's based. If the polls are close to accurate, Silver's model will likely be right.
__________________


"I'll see you guys in New York." ISIS Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to US military personnel upon his release from US custody at Camp Bucca in Iraq during Obama's first year in office.
Posts: 75,744
patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-03-2012, 05:17 PM   #889
cosmo20002 cosmo20002 is offline
Debunking your bullshit
 
cosmo20002's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: KC area
Casino cash: $21944
Quote:
Originally Posted by WoodDraw View Post
Poor Nate Silver is getting hammered in the right-wing nutjob press.
More accurate now.

These same folks have whined about biased polls all summer and fall--until after the first debate, when the whining stopped for a few weeks.

Gee, is there any correlation to the whining and Mitt's standings in those polls? Unless he's ahead, it's an industry-wide pollster conspiracy.
__________________

Last edited by cosmo20002; 11-03-2012 at 05:22 PM..
Posts: 20,450
cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-03-2012, 05:18 PM   #890
BigRedChief BigRedChief is offline
Brainwashed
 
BigRedChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Swims with fishes
Casino cash: $18426
VARSITY
Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
538 does not show that Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin are competitive. Romney is campaigning in Pennsylvania to try to give himself another way to win electorally.
I read that every Republican candidate has went to Pennslyvania on the Sunday before the election. It trying to show some momentum, expand their map.
__________________
If you don't have a seat at the table, you're probably on the menu
Posts: 44,835
BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-03-2012, 05:25 PM   #891
cosmo20002 cosmo20002 is offline
Debunking your bullshit
 
cosmo20002's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: KC area
Casino cash: $21944
Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
He's getting hammered by quite a few people who agree with cdcox that Nate Silver's model is only as good as the polls on which it's based. If the polls are close to accurate, Silver's model will likely be right.
He does make some adjustments based on whatever his secret formula is. RealClearPolitics I believe simply takes all the polls and mushes them together.
__________________
Posts: 20,450
cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.cosmo20002 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-03-2012, 05:50 PM   #892
patteeu patteeu is offline
The 23rd Pillar
 
patteeu's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla View Post
you literally have no idea what I do as a consultant.
I have an idea that it has to do with math. I doubt that you consult with 538 though. OTOH, I have no doubt that you and cdcox are capable of understanding Nate Silver's model. For that matter, I suspect that Whoman69 and I are capable of understanding it too. But we don't.
__________________


"I'll see you guys in New York." ISIS Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to US military personnel upon his release from US custody at Camp Bucca in Iraq during Obama's first year in office.
Posts: 75,744
patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-03-2012, 05:53 PM   #893
HonestChieffan HonestChieffan is offline
Country Santa Year Around
 
HonestChieffan's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: In the Country in MO
Casino cash: $16101
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
I read that every Republican candidate has went to Pennslyvania on the Sunday before the election. It trying to show some momentum, expand their map.
That has went?
__________________
Frazod to KC Nitwit..."Hey, I saw a picture of some dumpy bitch with a horrible ****tarded giant back tattoo and couldn't help but think of you." Simple, Pure, Perfect. 7/31/2013

Dave Lane: "I have donated more money to people in my life as an atheist that most churches ever will."

Come home to Jesus Dave. Come home.
Posts: 29,811
HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.HonestChieffan is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-03-2012, 06:08 PM   #894
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
The Master
 
whoman69's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Marion, IA
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
I have an idea that it has to do with math. I doubt that you consult with 538 though. OTOH, I have no doubt that you and cdcox are capable of understanding Nate Silver's model. For that matter, I suspect that Whoman69 and I are capable of understanding it too. But we don't.
538 is a tool. I understand how to use the tool. The understanding of the math or the programming have nothing to do with it. That's sort of like saying that nobody can cross a bridge because they don't understand the engineering behind it. You gotta be the most stupid obstinate fugtard this planet has ever produced. The fact that you didn't understand my points refuting you are not surprising. In your point/counterpoint world there is only the counterpoint because you can't even comprehend the point.
__________________
-Watching Eddie Podolak
Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
Posts: 23,081
whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-03-2012, 06:28 PM   #895
BigRedChief BigRedChief is offline
Brainwashed
 
BigRedChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Swims with fishes
Casino cash: $18426
VARSITY
Public Polling numbers out today.

November 03, 2012

Obama leads 50-47 nationally

PPP's daily national tracking poll now finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 50-47 based on interviews conducted between Thursday and Saturday. This is the first time either candidate has led by more than 2 points in the three weeks we've been doing this survey. Obama has led in 4 individual days of polling in a row since Wednesday, suggesting that he may be getting a bounce based on his leadership during Hurricane Sandy.


Obama's approval is now on positive ground at 48/47. On our release last Saturday night he was at 44/52, so his net approval has improved 9 points in the last week. Obama's net favorability rating of +5 (51/46) is now 7 points better than Romney's is at -2 (47/49).


There are a couple reasons Obama has pulled into this small lead. One is that he's turned what had been a persistent disadvantage with independents into a 49/44 advantage. The other is that he's reduced what had been a 20+ point deficit with white voters back down to a 57/40 spread. When you combine that with his 89/9 lead among African Americans and 67/28 edge with Hispanics it's the formula for a small overall lead.


There are also indications that young voters might be renewing their enthusiasm for Obama in the closing stage of the campaign. He's leading 66/33 with respondents under 30, making up for his 49/47 deficit with the rest of the electorate.


It's still a very close race but momentum seems to be on Obama's side in the closing stretch.
Full results here
__________________
If you don't have a seat at the table, you're probably on the menu
Posts: 44,835
BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-03-2012, 06:40 PM   #896
BigRedChief BigRedChief is offline
Brainwashed
 
BigRedChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Swims with fishes
Casino cash: $18426
VARSITY
Democrats have carved out an early-voting lead in Florida ahead of this Tuesday's election, carrying an advantage of 104,000 ballots cast.

Although Republicans in the state are ahead by 84,000 in absentee ballots, the Democrats' lead of 187,000 in early in-person voting gives them their widest margin yet in overall pre-Election Day voting, according to The Miami Herald.

In Nevada's early voting, Democrats are ahead of Republicans in crucial locales. According to Ralston Reports, Democrats hold an early-voting lead of 71,000 in Clark County, which includes Las Vegas. Nearly half of registered Democrats there have already voted by mail or in person, compared with one-third of Republicans.
In Washoe County, which includes the city of Reno, Democrats and Republicans are roughly even, with about 40 percent of both parties' rolls having cast votes already.
__________________
If you don't have a seat at the table, you're probably on the menu
Posts: 44,835
BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-03-2012, 07:16 PM   #897
patteeu patteeu is offline
The 23rd Pillar
 
patteeu's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla View Post
I don't know all of his assumptions, ...
Case closed.
__________________


"I'll see you guys in New York." ISIS Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to US military personnel upon his release from US custody at Camp Bucca in Iraq during Obama's first year in office.
Posts: 75,744
patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-03-2012, 07:17 PM   #898
patteeu patteeu is offline
The 23rd Pillar
 
patteeu's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
538 is a tool. I understand how to use the tool. The understanding of the math or the programming have nothing to do with it. That's sort of like saying that nobody can cross a bridge because they don't understand the engineering behind it. You gotta be the most stupid obstinate fugtard this planet has ever produced. The fact that you didn't understand my points refuting you are not surprising. In your point/counterpoint world there is only the counterpoint because you can't even comprehend the point.
A monkey can bang on a typewriter too.
__________________


"I'll see you guys in New York." ISIS Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to US military personnel upon his release from US custody at Camp Bucca in Iraq during Obama's first year in office.
Posts: 75,744
patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-03-2012, 07:20 PM   #899
Pitt Gorilla Pitt Gorilla is offline
Banned!
 
Pitt Gorilla's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: NOT Columbia, MO 65201
Casino cash: $13284
Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Case closed.
Once again, I highly doubt you're this stupid. You don't have to know them precisely to approximate them fairly accurately. I'm not sure how this could be clearer for you.
__________________

That rabbit is crazy; I'm Brian Waters!

Kotter: "You are lucky I'm truly not the vindictive or psycho type...I'd be careful from now on, and I'd just back the hell off if I were you....otherwise, the Mizzou "extension office" life might get exciting"

Kotter: "You're just gay. G-A-Y. Gay."
Posts: 22,178
Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.Pitt Gorilla has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-03-2012, 07:38 PM   #900
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $18574
Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
cdcox doesn't understand the model either.
Silver doesn't publish his model but describes it in enough detail that I could develop something very similar, as could any other person with a decent background in statistics and data modeling. So to say I don't understand the model is incorrect.
Posts: 32,571
cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump




All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:47 AM.


This is a test for a client's site.
A new website that shows member-created construction site listings that need fill or have excess fill. Dirt Monkey @ https://DirtMonkey.net
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.