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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-03-2012, 06:54 PM   #901
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Old 11-03-2012, 06:57 PM   #902
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Silver doesn't publish his model but describes it in enough detail that I could develop something very similar, as could any other person with a decent background in statistics and data modeling. So to say I don't understand the model is incorrect.
It's becoming clearer that pat doesn't understand mathematics and so he assumes nobody else does either.
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Old 11-03-2012, 06:57 PM   #903
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Old 11-03-2012, 06:58 PM   #904
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Im about to leave on a date with a super hot blond. From Burlington Iowa no less.

Have a great night Nacho
Cool story bro
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Old 11-03-2012, 06:58 PM   #905
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Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla View Post
It's becoming clearer that pat doesn't understand mathematics and so he assumes nobody else does either.
He's trolling.
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Old 11-03-2012, 07:09 PM   #906
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He's trolling.
Yup. He's in character.
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Old 11-03-2012, 07:13 PM   #907
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Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla View Post
It's becoming clearer that pat doesn't understand mathematics and so he assumes nobody else does either.
Neither does this guy.
Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump
We donít want to have a recount in any of the battleground states. Obama will steal it. Make sure all your friends and family vote.
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Old 11-03-2012, 07:19 PM   #908
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Im about to leave on a date with a super hot blond. From Burlington Iowa no less.

Have a great night Nacho
Stay safe--make sure he wears a condom.
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Old 11-03-2012, 07:21 PM   #909
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Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla View Post
Once again, I highly doubt you're this stupid. You don't have to know them precisely to approximate them fairly accurately. I'm not sure how this could be clearer for you.
If you don't understand the assumptions you don't understand the model and when it breaks down.
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Old 11-03-2012, 07:22 PM   #910
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Silver doesn't publish his model but describes it in enough detail that I could develop something very similar, as could any other person with a decent background in statistics and data modeling. So to say I don't understand the model is incorrect.
But yet, I take it that you haven't done so.
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Old 11-03-2012, 07:26 PM   #911
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Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla View Post
It's becoming clearer that pat doesn't understand mathematics and so he assumes nobody else does either.
I would hope that you understand mathematics better than I do given your profession, but Nate Silver's model is still a black box to you even if the techniques he uses aren't complete mysteries. You've already admitted as much. Don't be mad.
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Old 11-03-2012, 07:45 PM   #912
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But yet, I take it that you haven't done so.
Let's say that in your profession, you make spreadsheets to keep track of a budget for installing an assembly line that builds widgets. Then you interview for a job in a related field that is new to you where you are going to track the budget to build an assembly line that builds gadgets for the company that hires you. During the interview they ask you if you can budget this type of project. Are you going to answer, "No, I have no idea how to do that"?
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Old 11-03-2012, 07:58 PM   #913
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Let's say that in your profession, you make spreadsheets to keep track of a budget for installing an assembly line that builds widgets. Then you interview for a job in a related field that is new to you where you are going to track the budget to build an assembly line that builds gadgets for the company that hires you. During the interview they ask you if you can budget this type of project. Are you going to answer, "No, I have no idea how to do that"?
don't feed the troll. he's gone into full idiot mode.
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Old 11-03-2012, 08:09 PM   #914
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
If you don't understand the assumptions you don't understand the model and when it breaks down.
It's not that we don't understand them; it's that we wouldn't likely be able to reproduce them with 100% accuracy. However, it's not like his data points are great mysteries. We know (within an acceptable epsilon) what he's using and we can approximate his outcomes very accurately.
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Old 11-03-2012, 08:28 PM   #915
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
If you don't understand the assumptions you don't understand the model and when it breaks down.
Not true. If he was to publicly announce his whole model. Then everyone could do it and he would lose his business.

Does Coke give out everything in its drink? No, just some. Others try but fail to get the exact formula. It doesnt make Coke anything less than the real thing. Nate is the best at analyzing polling data just because he doesn't announce everything doesn't make him less than the real thing.
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