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Old 08-07-2012, 08:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 10:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-03-2012, 10:30 PM   #931
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Here is a summary of what Silver's model does and why I am a big fan.

1. The non-quantitative media would call the race a "toss up" or "too close to call". In reality we have more information about the race than this. Silver's analysis summarizes this extra information and presents it in an understandable format.

2. Silver's model tells us 1) unless the polls are biased or 2) some event drastically changes the polls, Obama will win. That is valuable information to have.

3. If the polls are biased, all bets are off. As in any model, garbage-in-garbage-out. But that is the fault of the input data, not the fault of the aggregation model.

4. Silver recognizes the possibility that the polls are biased and quantifies it. That is additional information about the status of the race in a historical context.

5. He's been posting this information for months, thereby giving a quantitative snapshot of the race at any point.

6. The model isn't perfect, but it provides a more accurate and more quantitative assessment of the race than any other method.

So the summary is: if the polls are accurate Obama will win. The odds of the polls being inaccurate enough for Romney to win are approximately 16%. I haven't seen a debunking of this shap shot that rises above the level of "I don't like the answer" or cherry picking of certain sub-demographic factoids that ignore the larger picture.
This may all be true, but if Romney wins NS becomes - as you said it - garbage in, garbage out...
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Old 11-03-2012, 10:31 PM   #932
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
PPP believes that the reason Obama is doing worse nationally than in swing states is because he may be doing poorly in deep dark-blue states that he wont lose.
I could see that.

I still think if Romney wins he's going to win in many areas. Ditto for Obama.
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Old 11-03-2012, 10:38 PM   #933
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J Diddy View Post
I was thinking of cool nicknames for you and Fatty Patty came to mind.
Clever. I think you should run with it.
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Old 11-03-2012, 10:44 PM   #934
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Deflection instead of addressing my point is not the correct response. Try again.
What point do you think you made? That coke tastes good (for those who like it at least) even if you don't know how it's made? True, but you don't know until after you've tasted it. By next Wednesday, I suspect we'll know whether Nate Silver's model tastes like a good cola or like sour milk, but we don't know which it will be until then.
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Old 11-03-2012, 10:50 PM   #935
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Clever. I think you should run with it.
I was gonna go with slim. Didn't have the ring to it.
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Old 11-03-2012, 11:03 PM   #936
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
What point do you think you made?
that just because he doesn't reveal every single detail of his formula doesn't mean its not valid.
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Old 11-03-2012, 11:06 PM   #937
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One thing is clear.

If Romney wins the election, he will change his mind and insist that he lost.

Romney is so wishy-washy and flippy-floppy, so no matter the vote Obama will still be POTUS.

I am not sure whether Nate Silver's 538 meta-analytical ciphering model accounts for that.
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Old 11-03-2012, 11:15 PM   #938
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Des Moines Register's final poll: Obama +5, 47-42. 800LV Oct30-Nov2, MoE +/- 3.5%. Live interviews, both land line and cell phone. Only 2% undecided, 5% refused to state their choice.

42% have already voted, compared to 28% at this point 4 years ago. Obama +22 among them, Romney +8 among people who will vote Tuesday. Romney +4 among independents. Obama +11 among women, but Romney is only +3 among men, which is going to be a problem for him.
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Old 11-03-2012, 11:17 PM   #939
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
that just because he doesn't reveal every single detail of his formula doesn't mean its not valid.
I agree with that. But that's not what we're arguing about. We're arguing about whether you can understand all the limitations of the model if you don't understand what's in it.
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Old 11-03-2012, 11:25 PM   #940
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Nate Silver also does baseball stats and other predictive models.

His yuletide models have consisted predicted a strong likelihood that Santa Claus would be coming to town and he has been right every year since he started.

That is pretty impressive if you assume that with the surname Silver he is probably Jewish and has no axe to grind regards Santa.
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Old 11-03-2012, 11:53 PM   #941
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
I agree with that. But that's not what we're arguing about. We're arguing about whether you can understand all the limitations of the model if you don't understand what's in it.
Two sayings about models, both are true.

1. Criticizing a model is like harpooning a blimp. You can't miss and every shot is fatal.

2. No model is true, but many are useful.

Yeah, I could tear apart the model and Silver could probably tear it up some more after that. But it doesn't mean that it is not useful.
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Old 11-04-2012, 12:01 AM   #942
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
This may all be true, but if Romney wins NS becomes - as you said it - garbage in, garbage out...
On the idea of Romeny winning being a failure of the model: So it has rained on many days when there was an 80% chance of it not raining. Does that mean you now ignore the weather forecast?


Garbage in -garbage out: I bet you own a clothes washer: I'll let you in on a secret: if you put pee in it instead of laundry detergent, your clothes won't come out the way you want them to. You should get rid of it.
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Old 11-04-2012, 12:08 AM   #943
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There are now more R's than D's. That's why the model won't work. Obama has driven moderate D's into the R camp for this election. They're not going to tell anyone but they are going to vote for Romney.
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Old 11-04-2012, 01:04 AM   #944
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
On the idea of Romeny winning being a failure of the model: So it has rained on many days when there was an 80% chance of it not raining. Does that mean you now ignore the weather forecast?

Garbage in -garbage out: I bet you own a clothes washer: I'll let you in on a secret: if you put pee in it instead of laundry detergent, your clothes won't come out the way you want them to. You should get rid of it.
Ok.
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Old 11-04-2012, 07:22 AM   #945
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Two sayings about models, both are true.

1. Criticizing a model is like harpooning a blimp. You can't miss and every shot is fatal.

2. No model is true, but many are useful.

Yeah, I could tear apart the model and Silver could probably tear it up some more after that. But it doesn't mean that it is not useful.
It may well be useful, but the people using it to say (or convince themselves) that Obama has the race all but locked up may be misusing it.

Your two sayings seem pretty reasonable to me.
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