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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-04-2012, 06:27 AM   #946
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
On the idea of Romeny winning being a failure of the model: So it has rained on many days when there was an 80% chance of it not raining. Does that mean you now ignore the weather forecast?


Garbage in -garbage out: I bet you own a clothes washer: I'll let you in on a secret: if you put pee in it instead of laundry detergent, your clothes won't come out the way you want them to. You should get rid of it.
If the model ends up demonstrating that the polls on which it's based are flawed, it's not skeptics who will have egg on their faces. It's Nate "I'll betcha $2000" Silver and his blind faith believers.
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Old 11-04-2012, 06:58 AM   #947
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Originally Posted by ChiefaRoo View Post
There are now more R's than D's.
you are FOS. We are going to need a Link that says you are not as dumb as your statement.
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Old 11-04-2012, 07:56 AM   #948
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
If the model ends up demonstrating that the polls on which it's based are flawed, it's not skeptics who will have egg on their faces. It's Nate "I'll betcha $2000" Silver and his blind faith believers.
Does the weather forecaster have egg on his face on a day when there is a 20% chance of rain and it rains the next day?

If a weather forecaster was forecasting a 20% chance of rain and someone without training in the field was insisting that the odds were 50%, would the weather forecaster be foolish for making an even money bet?

The stakes of evaluating the model are heightened because this is a high visibility one-off event. I contend that the heightening of stakes comes from a media and general public that is numerically illiterate. There is a significant chance Romeny will win which Silver acknowledges and highlights in virtually every article he writes. If Romeny wins, those crowing about Silver being "wrong" will only be demonstrating their own illiteracy, both in the conventional sense (because his writing certainly declares the possibility that Romney could win) and numerically.
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Old 11-04-2012, 08:06 AM   #949
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Des Moines Register's final poll: Obama +5, 47-42. 800LV Oct30-Nov2, MoE +/- 3.5%. Live interviews, both land line and cell phone. Only 2% undecided, 5% refused to state their choice.

42% have already voted, compared to 28% at this point 4 years ago. Obama +22 among them, Romney +8 among people who will vote Tuesday. Romney +4 among independents. Obama +11 among women, but Romney is only +3 among men, which is going to be a problem for him.
I'm usually a fan of the Des Moines Register Poll, but I think their formula is a bit off on this one. I think the early voting people are over sampled, which gives an advantage to Democrats. I also think something's strange when 5% will not tell the pollster who they are supporting. There is a significant portion of the sample, 11% that are undecided or not stating a preference. That's also large considering the election is now upon us.
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Old 11-04-2012, 08:15 AM   #950
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I hear there's a poll that's going to be released on Tuesday that should be really telling.
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Old 11-04-2012, 08:23 AM   #951
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
I'm usually a fan of the Des Moines Register Poll, but I think their formula is a bit off on this one. I think the early voting people are over sampled, which gives an advantage to Democrats. I also think something's strange when 5% will not tell the pollster who they are supporting. There is a significant portion of the sample, 11% that are undecided or not stating a preference. That's also large considering the election is now upon us.
Hoover, come on man.

You were just pointed out that same poll a couple of weeks ago as evidence that Romney is going to win. Are you saying they changed the way they poll people in this poll and thats what changed the results?
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Old 11-04-2012, 08:34 AM   #952
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Dude every poll is different because every sample is different.

Final DMR Poll in 2004 had John Kerry winning by 3 points, Bush won. In 2008, they had Obama willing by 17, they were 9 points off. Having a sample that includes 42 percent of people who voted early is waaaaay off. Only a third of Iowans will vote early. Why does that matter? Because Democrats have always significantly out preformed Republicans in early voting. They even did so in 2010, an election where Republicans dominated in every aspect.
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Old 11-04-2012, 08:42 AM   #953
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
Dude every poll is different because every sample is different.
okay, I shall yield to your experience in polling and accept that it was done differently.
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Old 11-04-2012, 08:46 AM   #954
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Does the weather forecaster have egg on his face on a day when there is a 20% chance of rain and it rains the next day?
Yes, obviously.
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Old 11-04-2012, 09:02 AM   #955
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Okay, I have been watching Fox news this weekend. I'm trying to understand their viewpoints. How they reach their conclusions. It makes no sense. The bubble is created on Fox news and it just spills out into America and filters down into this board..

When they talk about the polls that show Obama leading, they disavow them as outliers, flawed polling and over sample of a Democrats. But when a poll shows their guy in the lead from the same exact polling company its held out as an example of how Romeny is going to win.

They are freaking out on the polls below. They sound like a Romeny spokesman. They "report" that the ground game and the late break is going to be a Romney landslide ala Regan in 1980. They are telling people as "real" news, this information is accepted fact that Romney is tied or leading in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

****ing cheerleaders. They are no better than MSNBC.

Race/Topic (Click to Sort)PollResultsSpread
OhioColumbus Dispatch*Obama 50, Romney 48Obama +2
PennsylvaniaTribune-Review/SusquehannaObama 47, Romney 47Tie
MichiganBaydoun/Foster (D)Obama 46, Romney 47Romney +1
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Old 11-04-2012, 09:10 AM   #956
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Okay, I have been watching Fox news this weekend. I'm trying to understand their viewpoints. How they reach their conclusions. It makes no sense. The bubble is created on Fox news and it just spills out into America and filters down into this board..

When they talk about the polls that show Obama leading, they disavow them as outliers, flawed polling and over sample of a Democrats. But when a poll shows their guy in the lead from the same exact polling company its held out as an example of how Romeny is going to win.

They are freaking out on the polls below. They sound like a Romeny spokesman. They "report" that the ground game and the late break is going to be a Romney landslide ala Regan in 1980. They are telling people as "real" news, this information is accepted fact that Romney is tied or leading in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

****ing cheerleaders. They are no better than MSNBC.

Race/Topic (Click to Sort)PollResultsSpread
OhioColumbus Dispatch*Obama 50, Romney 48Obama +2
PennsylvaniaTribune-Review/SusquehannaObama 47, Romney 47Tie
MichiganBaydoun/Foster (D)Obama 46, Romney 47Romney +1
The funny thing about this is that the best polls this year, as far as having the LEAST amount of bias for Romney or Obama, is arguably the Fox News polls.
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Old 11-04-2012, 09:12 AM   #957
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
I'm usually a fan of the Des Moines Register Poll, but I think their formula is a bit off on this one. I think the early voting people are over sampled, which gives an advantage to Democrats. I also think something's strange when 5% will not tell the pollster who they are supporting. There is a significant portion of the sample, 11% that are undecided or not stating a preference. That's also large considering the election is now upon us.
Its not unusual to have people refuse to tell you who they are voting for, but it is unusual for a pollster to keep them. Usually if a respondent says they are not undecided but wont say who they are voting for, the pollster throws them out and moves on. If they would have done that, the DSM Register poll probably would have landed on 52-46 for Obama.
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Old 11-04-2012, 09:14 AM   #958
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****ing cheerleaders. They are no better than MSNBC.
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Old 11-04-2012, 09:18 AM   #959
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Originally Posted by Donger View Post
Yes, obviously.
So, because this event has happened hundreds of time in your life, you consider that the weather forecaster has been discredited, and you no longer ever listen to anything they say?
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Old 11-04-2012, 09:22 AM   #960
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Apparently American Crossroads GPS either has raised too much money, or they did a very poor job in efficiently spending it all down. They are now running anti-Obama ads in New York, other blue New England states, and Texas. These aren't national ad buys bleeding in, these are actual local TV ads. The only possible reason to do this is to try to win the popular vote if Obama wins the electoral college, thus making sure he has no mandate.

Obviously they probably should have run more ads earlier in the campaign if they cant find any more ad slots now, but that aside, this is why Super PACS are stupid. If Romney had this money and all the ad slots were bought up and it was impossible to buy any more ads, he could at least spent it by paying people to GOTV. The Super PACS cant do that. They can spend it on TV ads. If we cant stop unlimited money from going to Super PACS, then we should just allow the campaigns to raise unlimited money.

edit: American Crossroads has also gone up in Washington state
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