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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-04-2012, 09:22 AM   #961
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
So, because this event has happened hundreds of time in your life, you consider that the weather forecaster has been discredited, and you no longer ever listen to anything they say?
Not at all. I just point and laugh every time it happens.
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Old 11-04-2012, 09:28 AM   #962
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Apparently American Crossroads GPS either has raised too much money, or they did a very poor job in efficiently spending it all down. They are now running anti-Obama ads in New York, other blue New England states, and Texas. These aren't national ad buys bleeding in, these are actual local TV ads. The only possible reason to do this is to try to win the popular vote if Obama wins the electoral college, thus making sure he has no mandate.
Thats exactly whats going on. The professionals know or at least acting like the battlegrounds are going to break Obama's way. They only thing left that they can influence in the popular vote to have ammunition on the pushback against Obama's 2nd term agenda.
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Old 11-04-2012, 09:28 AM   #963
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
If the model ends up demonstrating that the polls on which it's based are flawed, it's not skeptics who will have egg on their faces. It's Nate "I'll betcha $2000" Silver and his blind faith believers.
It seems to me you are the one that doesn't understand.

NS model is probably the most conservative one out there, along with state polling he considers economic indicators, poll bias, and shitty polls into his model. That is why Romney still has a 20% chance.

Take a look at the Princeton election consortium, they nailed both the 2004 and 2008 elections and they just do poll aggregation.

Probability of Obama re-election: Random Drift 98.2%, Bayesian Prediction 99.9%



In the end all the models are heavily influenced by national and state polling so if they are all wrong of course the models will be wrong.
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Old 11-04-2012, 09:32 AM   #964
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Thats exactly whats going on. The professionals know or at least acting like the battlegrounds are going to break Obama's way. They only thing left that they can influence in the popular vote to have ammunition on the pushback against Obama's 2nd term agenda.
Or, if you are a republican clinging to the hope that all the polls are wrong and Romney will win, the American Crossroads people are all dumbasses who hung onto too much money too long and all the ad space is bought up. (This could still be true even if everyone thinks Obama's ahead)
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Old 11-04-2012, 09:35 AM   #965
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Originally Posted by Donger View Post
Not at all. I just point and laugh every time it happens.
You are a numerically illiterate person.

If it never rained on days where there was a forecast of 20% chance of rain, that would be a poor forecast. If it never rains on those days, then the forecast should be 0% chance of rain.

For a 20% chance of rain to be an accurate forecast, it needs to rain about 1 out of every 5 days over a sufficiently large number of days in which such a forecast is made.

A forecast of a 20% chance of rain is simply a statement of the degree of uncertainty about the chances of rain on a given day. It is a quantification of what we don't know about weather prediction.
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Old 11-04-2012, 09:36 AM   #966
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger View Post
Not at all. I just point and laugh every time it happens.
haha, admit it: you are just trolling cdcox at this point, right?
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Old 11-04-2012, 09:41 AM   #967
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Or, if you are a republican clinging to the hope that all the polls are wrong and Romney will win, the American Crossroads people are all dumbasses who hung onto too much money too long and all the ad space is bought up. (This could still be true even if everyone thinks Obama's ahead)
With the increases in campaign financing, I could see a well-financed incumbent buying up all the post-Labor-Day ad space in March and April while the challenger party is still trying to sort out who their candidate will be. Maybe there are rules in place that networks must set aside equal time for a challenger to buy at a later date?
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Old 11-04-2012, 09:41 AM   #968
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Or, if you are a republican clinging to the hope that all the polls are wrong and Romney will win, the American Crossroads people are all dumbasses who hung onto too much money too long and all the ad space is bought up. (This could still be true even if everyone thinks Obama's ahead)
Also I've seen several pieces on how the Super PAC's are forced to spend 2.5 times for an ad that a campaign ad must pay. For instance, a Romney campaign ad pays $1000 for a 30 second ad in Columbus Ohio. Rove's Crossroads Super Pac has to pay $3500 for the same spot due to federal rules in place on how much a TV station can charge campaigns. I think the rule is that they have to charge campaigns the average rate of the bottom 50% of theri normal charge rates for that slot.

They can charge the super Pac's whatever they want to charge. And with all this money taking up all the commercial time, the demand has driven up and supply has stayed the same.
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Old 11-04-2012, 09:46 AM   #969
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
You are a numerically illiterate person.

If it never rained on days where there was a forecast of 20% chance of rain, that would be a poor forecast. If it never rains on those days, then the forecast should be 0% chance of rain.

For a 20% chance of rain to be an accurate forecast, it needs to rain about 1 out of every 5 days over a sufficiently large number of days in which such a forecast is made.

A forecast of a 20% chance of rain is simply a statement of the degree of uncertainty about the chances of rain on a given day. It is a quantification of what we don't know about weather prediction.
Yes, and when it does rain on the day when the forecaster said there is a 1 in 5 chance that it will, I point and laugh. Just like I will if Nate Almighty is wrong.
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Old 11-04-2012, 09:46 AM   #970
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
haha, admit it: you are just trolling cdcox at this point, right?
Not at all.
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Old 11-04-2012, 09:47 AM   #971
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger View Post
Yes, and when it does rain on the day when the forecaster said there is a 1 in 5 chance that it will, I point and laugh. Just like I will if Nate Almighty is wrong.
Donger is numerically illiterate.
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Old 11-04-2012, 09:53 AM   #972
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger View Post
Yes, and when it does rain on the day when the forecaster said there is a 1 in 5 chance that it will, I point and laugh. Just like I will if Nate Almighty is wrong.
You seem to be confusing with certainty with likelihood. Nate, just like the weatherman, are not saying what will or won't happen. They are stating the probability that an event occurs/doesn't occur. They are not dismissing the probability, just stating the likelihood. The inference is made at the individual level.
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Old 11-04-2012, 10:00 AM   #973
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Originally Posted by Donger View Post
Not at all.
You aren't kidding, then? Your posts on this topic appear to be so incredibly stupid, that they just could not be real. I automatically presumed that you had to be trolling.
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Old 11-04-2012, 10:03 AM   #974
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Romney is going to win. Democrats who are patriots and who love traditional America are going to cross over and vote Obama out. They may be back to being Democrats after Tuesday but they're going to exercise the cancer that is Obama. The President has been a monumental failure, a socialist and a man who is hostile to the private market. People see that and they don't like it. Bye, bye O.
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Old 11-04-2012, 10:03 AM   #975
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Pretty good article on 538 today. Lays out the case for state polling accuracy in a way that ought to be very intimidating for Romney hopefuls: out of 77 examples where a state was polled by 3 different organizations within 2 weeks of an election, the average failed to predict the winner only three times.

He then goes on to explain why Romney making a play for Pennsylvania (with almost no early voting and where he's behind by single-digits) is probably a good idea, given the very desperate situation he finds himself in.
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