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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-04-2012, 10:05 AM   #976
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Donger is numerically illiterate.
Are you suggesting that Silver is not saying that there's a 4 in 5 likelihood that Obama will win on Tuesday?
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Old 11-04-2012, 10:06 AM   #977
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J Diddy View Post
You seem to be confusing with certainty with likelihood. Nate, just like the weatherman, are not saying what will or won't happen. They are stating the probability that an event occurs/doesn't occur. They are not dismissing the probability, just stating the likelihood. The inference is made at the individual level.
Yes, I know.
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Old 11-04-2012, 10:08 AM   #978
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger View Post
Are you suggesting that Silver is not saying that there's a 4 in 5 likelihood that Obama will win on Tuesday?
Yes. And that means that if NS were to make 100 such predictions he would expect for the underdog to win about 20 times.
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Old 11-04-2012, 10:10 AM   #979
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger View Post
Yes, I know.
Then why are you laughing at the weather forecaster when the outcome is approximately what they told you will happen, over an appropriately large average?
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Old 11-04-2012, 10:11 AM   #980
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Yes. And that means that if NS were to make 100 such predictions he would expect for the underdog to win about 20 times.
Right, so I don't see why he shouldn't be laughed at if Obama loses on Tuesday, just like the weatherman.
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Old 11-04-2012, 10:12 AM   #981
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Then why are you laughing at the weather forecaster when the outcome is approximately what they told you will happen, over an appropriately large average?
Really? Okay. Because the weatherman was predicting that it is much more likely that that it wouldn't rain.
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Old 11-04-2012, 10:13 AM   #982
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiefaRoo View Post
Romney is going to win. Democrats who are patriots and who love traditional America are going to cross over and vote Obama out.
So if you vote for Obama you don't love America, not patriotic?
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Originally Posted by MTG#10 View Post
I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 11-04-2012, 10:15 AM   #983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Pretty good article on 538 today. Lays out the case for state polling accuracy in a way that ought to be very intimidating for Romney hopefuls: out of 77 examples where a state was polled by 3 different organizations within 2 weeks of an election, the average failed to predict the winner only three times.

He then goes on to explain why Romney making a play for Pennsylvania (with almost no early voting and where he's behind by single-digits) is probably a good idea, given the very desperate situation he finds himself in.
Every Republican candidate goes to Pennsylvania on the Sunday before the election since Regan. To not do so would look bad.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MTG#10 View Post
I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 11-04-2012, 10:17 AM   #984
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Since a single event is too small of a sample to assess the accuracy of a model, the outcome of the national race won't give us much information about the accuracy of NS regardless of the outcome.

However, he provides odds on the outcome of state races too. In 2008 he correctly called 50 of 51 races. We'll have 51 additional data points after Tuesday. That is still a small data set, but is large enough to do some assessment. I'm really busy this week but at some point I'll do an analysis to see just how accurate he is at the state level. If you get the state probabilities right, the national race is just application of Monte Carlo analysis which introduces negligible additional uncertainty if you run enough simulations.
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Old 11-04-2012, 10:21 AM   #985
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger View Post
Really? Okay. Because the weatherman was predicting that it is much more likely that that it wouldn't rain.
You must bust out laughing every time you roll a die, because any outcome of a single roll is a longshot. Three? ****ing hilarious!
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Old 11-04-2012, 10:31 AM   #986
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Latest from NS
November 4, 2012, 11:39 am5 Comments
Nov. 3: Romney’s Reason to Play for Pennsylvania

The Saturday before the election produced a predictably large volume of polling in battleground states — but also some predictable-seeming results, with most of the polls coming close to the average of other polls.


Because President Obama leads in the polling average in most of the swing states, this means that most of the polls there on Saturday showed him ahead as well. Among the 21 polls in battleground states on Saturday, 16 had Mr. Obama ahead as compared with just two leads for Mr. Romney; three other battleground state polls had the race tied.

Some of the consistency in these results may reflect a tendency of polls to converge or “herd” around the polling average close to Election Day. This may occur because some polling firms alter their turnout models or other aspects of the polls so as not to produce outliers — a dubious practice if the goal is to provide an objective take on the race.


At the same time, Mr. Obama’s state polls continue to show more strength than they did just after the Denver debate. As we wrote on Saturday, we are at the point where the polls would have to be biased against Mr. Romney (in a statistical sense) in order for him to win the Electoral College.


It is worth emphasizing the point once more that, for all the distractions caused by individual polls, the polling averages have been very reliable in the era of rich state polling. Read more…
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MTG#10 View Post
I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
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Old 11-04-2012, 10:33 AM   #987
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
You must bust out laughing every time you roll a die, because any outcome of a single roll is a longshot. Three? ****ing hilarious!
I don't see how that's analogous to what Silver is predicting, but yuck it up, I suppose.
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Old 11-04-2012, 11:13 AM   #988
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Again, I don't think NS is "making stuff up," and the polls do show an ever-so-slight lean towards Obama, but if the poll averages are off < 1.5%, you go from an Obama electoral victory of 290-248 to a Romney victory of 285-253. If you switch 2.0% of the Obama support to Romney it becomes 327-211 Romney win.

I'm not predicting this. The polls are numerous enough that for this kind of event to occur they would have to be very wrong across the table and/or Romney would have to earn most of the little undecided vote that remains.

All I'm saying is that in an election this close, it takes very little to move the meter in a huge way. My prediction is that whoever wins OHIO is going to win a lot more electoral votes then anyone had previously imagined and the ability to swing a couple of points can happen on either side. I'd say the winner, whoever it is, will be winning with 300+ EVs...
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Old 11-04-2012, 11:16 AM   #989
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger View Post
I don't see how that's analogous to what Silver is predicting, but yuck it up, I suppose.
I think you are generally bright chap, to borrow your parlance, so I'll try one more time. Suppose three people are sitting at table. Two are playing a board game in which one of them, Ralph, needs to roll a 3 in order to win, otherwise the other player Daemon will win. Before the roll, the third chap, Nate, says, "There is a 5 in 6 chance that Daemon will win and a 1 in 6 chance that Ralph will win." Daemon begins prematurely crowing about winning. Ralph rolls a 3 and wins.

If Ralph begins laughing at Daemon it's understandable. If Ralph laughs at Nate, Ralph is numerically illiterate.
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Old 11-04-2012, 11:22 AM   #990
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
I think you are generally bright chap, to borrow your parlance, so I'll try one more time. Suppose three people are sitting at table. Two are playing a board game in which one of them, Ralph, needs to roll a 3 in order to win, otherwise the other player Daemon will win. Before the roll, the third chap, Nate, says, "There is a 5 in 6 chance that Daemon will win and a 1 in 6 chance that Ralph will win." Daemon begins prematurely crowing about winning. Ralph rolls a 3 and wins.

If Ralph begins laughing at Daemon it's understandable. If Ralph laughs at Nate, Ralph is numerically illiterate.
Not if the die is weighted...
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