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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-04-2012, 12:04 PM   #1006
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The latest 538 simulations gives Obama a victory in 85.1% of scenarios. The popular vote sits 50.6-48.3 for the President. Colorado nears 70%. Virginia is over 70%. New Hampshire approaches 80%. Iowa is over 80%. Ohio is at 85%. Nevada nears 90%. 538 does not believe that Michigan and Pennsylvania are battleground states as he gives Romney less than a 3% chance of taking either. In comparison Arizona is more competitive.

In the senate 538 gives Democrats a 91.5% chance of holding the Senate. Races in order of closeness are:
Indiana 67.7% Democrat
Montana 69% Republican
Nevada 77% Republican
Wisconsin 77.2% Democrat

Assuming that King (I-ME) will join the Democratic caucus, the Democrats would hold 53 seats if all 538 favorites won.
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Old 11-04-2012, 12:08 PM   #1007
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Also interesting is that Florida has lurched closer to 50/50 tossup.

The most recent polls out of Florida indicate a slight lean to Obama, actually.

God I'd love it if Obama scooped up Florida.

Considering all the partisan bullshit of the past 4 years, 330 electoral votes would just be total domination.
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Old 11-04-2012, 12:09 PM   #1008
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Republicans have said for years they are the only patriots. So what you are saying is a logical impossibility. Republicans in Congress though obviously proved that statement wrong when the leader of the Senate proclaimed that the most important thing was to make sure Obama was a one term President, not the American people. On the night of the inauguration they had a meeting of their leaders to strategize on how to obstruct Obama. What great patriots.
How is that any different from what Harry Reid said the other day, when he stated that the Senate D's would not work at all with Romney should he win the White House.
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Old 11-04-2012, 12:10 PM   #1009
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Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
How is that any different from what Harry Reid said the other day, when he stated that the Senate D's would not work at all with Romney should he win the White House.
Harry Reid said the Dems would not go along with a "severely conservative" agenda. Which is reasonable.

Mitch McConnell and the Republicans openly reversed themselves on virtually every subject to avoid working with Obama as he began accepting centrist Republican ideas.
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Old 11-04-2012, 12:13 PM   #1010
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Harry Reid said the Dems would not go along with a "severely conservative" agenda. Which is reasonable.

Mitch McConnell and the Republicans openly reversed themselves on virtually every subject to avoid working with Obama as he began accepting centrist Republican ideas.
No, that is not what he said, nice try. Reid made it very clear that he would attempt to block anything Romney would propose during his terms in the White House. Reid and the D's in the Senate are well within their rights to do so...just be honest about it, instead of trying to spin Reid as some moderate bi-partisan Democrat.
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Old 11-04-2012, 12:20 PM   #1011
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
I think you are generally bright chap, to borrow your parlance, so I'll try one more time. Suppose three people are sitting at table. Two are playing a board game in which one of them, Ralph, needs to roll a 3 in order to win, otherwise the other player Daemon will win. Before the roll, the third chap, Nate, says, "There is a 5 in 6 chance that Daemon will win and a 1 in 6 chance that Ralph will win." Daemon begins prematurely crowing about winning. Ralph rolls a 3 and wins.

If Ralph begins laughing at Daemon it's understandable. If Ralph laughs at Nate, Ralph is numerically illiterate.
Donger is just trolling. Nobody is really that stupid.
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Old 11-04-2012, 12:22 PM   #1012
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
No, that is not what he said, nice try. Reid made it very clear that he would attempt to block anything Romney would propose during his terms in the White House.
Quote:
"Mitt Romney’s fantasy that Senate Democrats will work with him to pass his 'severely conservative' agenda is laughable," said Reid, paraphrasing Romney's assertion during the earlier part of the campaign that he was a severe conservative.

"In the past few months, we have voted down many of the major policies that Mitt Romney has run on, from the Ryan plan to end Medicare as we know it, to the Blunt Amendment to deny women access to contraception, to more tax giveaways for millionaires and billionaires, to a draconian spending plan that would gut critical services for seniors and the most vulnerable Americans," Reid said.
Pretty much a condemnation of the far right policies Romney has pledged himself to at various times.

Expecting Democrats to be hunky dory with voucherizing Mediare, for instance, is hysterical, and should not be expected.

Expecting Republicans to be fine with Republican ideas, even if a Democrat is presenting them, is reasonable and should be expected.
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Old 11-04-2012, 12:23 PM   #1013
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FD View Post
Donger is just trolling. Nobody is really that stupid.
Whether that is true or not, he's now going to be held up as a dumbass in Pitt Gorilla's stat class.
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Old 11-04-2012, 12:25 PM   #1014
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
I think you are generally bright chap, to borrow your parlance, so I'll try one more time. Suppose three people are sitting at table. Two are playing a board game in which one of them, Ralph, needs to roll a 3 in order to win, otherwise the other player Daemon will win. Before the roll, the third chap, Nate, says, "There is a 5 in 6 chance that Daemon will win and a 1 in 6 chance that Ralph will win." Daemon begins prematurely crowing about winning. Ralph rolls a 3 and wins.

If Ralph begins laughing at Daemon it's understandable. If Ralph laughs at Nate, Ralph is numerically illiterate.
If I were Ralph, I'd laugh at both Daemon and Nate.

I fully understand that you think I shouldn't laugh at Nate and why. For me, the laughter would be more weighted toward those who seem to be banking on his projections as pre-ordained fact. But, I would still laugh at Nate.
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Old 11-04-2012, 12:27 PM   #1015
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Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
How is that any different from what Harry Reid said the other day, when he stated that the Senate D's would not work at all with Romney should he win the White House.
He didn't say that.

Here's a story on the R obstruction plan prior to Obama even taking office.

http://swampland.time.com/2012/08/23...bstruct-obama/
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Old 11-04-2012, 12:31 PM   #1016
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If he whiffs this time he'll be forever the guy who blew the 2012 election spectacularly.

If he hits it again he will become the Master of the Universe.
Yep. And I really don't see why some people can't see beyond the mathematics to justify a good laugh.
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Old 11-04-2012, 12:50 PM   #1017
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Also interesting is that Florida has lurched closer to 50/50 tossup.

The most recent polls out of Florida indicate a slight lean to Obama, actually.

God I'd love it if Obama scooped up Florida.

Considering all the partisan bullshit of the past 4 years, 330 electoral votes would just be total domination.
they say its the medicare ads and the Latino's coming alive. I still think Romney wins it in a squeaker but in 2016 I see Florida turning blue due to the Latinos.
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Old 11-04-2012, 12:53 PM   #1018
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Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
No, that is not what he said, nice try. Reid made it very clear that he would attempt to block anything Romney would propose during his terms in the White House. Reid and the D's in the Senate are well within their rights to do so...just be honest about it, instead of trying to spin Reid as some moderate bi-partisan Democrat.
I agree. If Romney had been elected, the Dem's would have filibustered everything as payback.
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YOU PEOPLE PLAY WITH ASSHOLES. Suck face with gingivitis. Marinate in yeast infections.

But boy cum, icky. Girl drenches carpet, story for reddit.
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Old 11-04-2012, 12:57 PM   #1019
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Expecting Republicans to be fine with Republican ideas, even if a Democrat is presenting them, is reasonable and should be expected.
Yep, this will be where Obama will go first but the Bush tax cuts > than $250 will be gone. Republicans will have to vote to raise taxes.

I don't see a scenario that the adults in the Republican party allow the tea party to dictate that they just say no on everything for another 4 years.
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YOU PEOPLE PLAY WITH ASSHOLES. Suck face with gingivitis. Marinate in yeast infections.

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Old 11-04-2012, 01:02 PM   #1020
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I agree. If Romney had been elected, the Dem's would have filibustered everything as payback.
That's insanity.

If Romney proposes a bunch of Democratic ideas to the Democrats, such as a carbon tax or cap and trade, there is absolutely no reason to think the Democrats would pass up that good of a deal.

It would be total retardation to do so -- a la the Republican Party of the past 4 years.
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