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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-04-2012, 04:06 PM   #1066
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla View Post
you keep talking about these people. Who, exactly, are they?
I suggest you start a poll and ask people who are convinced Obama will win whether or not the 538 thread or some other representation of Nate Silver's analysis led them to that conclusion. If you're unaware of Silver's influence this election cycle, you must not be paying attention.
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Old 11-04-2012, 04:47 PM   #1067
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaFace View Post
Yeah, they can easily adjust for that kind of thing. The tough thing, as alnorth mentioned above, is ensuring that the people in the panel aren't fundamentally different than the general population. For example, it's online, so you immediately have an issue with people who don't have internet access. There are a lot of giant panel companies out there who have spent millions figuring out how to correct for that, but it seems pretty tough that a targeted panel like this could really have that part down to a science. But who knows?

Regardless, that's why I like 538. All polls have issues, so it seems more logical to aggregate them all than to ever trust an individual one, regardless of how it's done.
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Old 11-04-2012, 04:48 PM   #1068
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post

Let's be clear though. Do you acknowledge that the last part of my post was true?
To quote:

Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
If Romney wins, the likelihood that Nate's model is, in fact, fundamentally wrong will be greater than if Obama wins.
Either result would be an insufficient sample size to draw a conclusion about the model. The outcome of the national race on Tuesday will be a grain of sand on the balance of judgement about the model. I will say that a Romney victory would be a bigger grain of sand on the balance than an Obama victory.
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Old 11-04-2012, 04:50 PM   #1069
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
To quote:



Either result would be an insufficient sample size to draw a conclusion about the model. The outcome of the national race on Tuesday will be a grain of sand on the balance of judgement about the model. I will say that a Romney victory would be a bigger grain of sand on the balance than an Obama victory.
Is that a yes or a no?
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Old 11-04-2012, 04:58 PM   #1070
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Is that a yes or a no?
Sure, it's a yes of that makes you happy, although I prefer my description.
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Old 11-04-2012, 05:08 PM   #1071
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So if you vote for Obama you don't love America, not patriotic?
If you vote for Obama this time around then you are most likely a drone or a big government public sector union person.

Don't cram words into my mouth.
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Old 11-04-2012, 05:09 PM   #1072
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Sure, it's a yes of that makes you happy, although I prefer my description.
Thank you. And since you brought up grains of sand to describe how little a single result means in terms of validating or indicting his model, I think we should recognize that the vaunted 538 track record is made up of tiny grains of sand as well (perhaps even tinier than this one would be since both 2008 and 2010 were wave elections and this one appears to be less likely to be one).
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Old 11-04-2012, 05:13 PM   #1073
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
So I don't understand, but in the end, you agree with me. Gotcha.
So what is your problem then with NS or any other aggregate polling prediction?

Are they just supposed to make up shit?
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Old 11-04-2012, 05:17 PM   #1074
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Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
Once again, Romney leads among INDs by sizable margins. All the polls show the same thing now -- Obama only wins if he gets a massive turnout advantage almost on par with 2008. There's little evidence that happens, but we'll see soon enough...
The final USA Today/Gallup Poll of swing states finds voters "have become as enthusiastic and engaged in the 2012 presidential election as they were in the historic contest four years ago."

Also the Pew Poll that came out today has Romney up only 3 for IND's.

Last edited by dirk digler; 11-04-2012 at 05:24 PM..
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Old 11-04-2012, 05:25 PM   #1075
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regarding that possible Bush v Gore repeat:

Quote:
Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight
Romney's now losing the Electoral College about 1/3 of the time he wins the popular vote in our simulations.
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Old 11-04-2012, 05:31 PM   #1076
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Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
So what is your problem then with NS or any other aggregate polling prediction?

Are they just supposed to make up shit?
The turnout issue is the key, as RINGLEADER has been saying. I have a hard time believing that the samples (which find party identification makeups that match or exceed those of 2008 in terms of democrat dominance) are random reflections of actual likely voters. If they aren't right, then the degree to which they're wrong will determine whether the final result is a close Obama win, a close Romney win, or a substantial Romney win.
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Old 11-04-2012, 05:37 PM   #1077
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
The turnout issue is the key, as RINGLEADER has been saying. I have a hard time believing that the samples (which find party identification makeups that match or exceed those of 2008 in terms of democrat dominance) are random reflections of actual likely voters. If they aren't right, then the degree to which they're wrong will determine whether the final result is a close Obama win, a close Romney win, or a substantial Romney win.
Party ID is garbage. The only non-insane argument that the right has is that the pollsters are over-estimating the black and hispanic vote and under-estimating the white vote. That could happen, and if it does, the polls could all be wrong.

Nobody with a shred of credibility re-weights polls by party ID. Yesterday's Republicans are today's independents disgusted with the tea party, which is why Romney's winning them.
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Old 11-04-2012, 05:38 PM   #1078
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Originally Posted by ChiefaRoo View Post
If you vote for Obama this time around then you are most likely a drone or a big government public sector union person.

Don't cram words into my mouth.
You are an uniformed fool. BTW, Did you make a bet with Dirkshun?
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Old 11-04-2012, 05:41 PM   #1079
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Party ID is garbage. The only non-insane argument that the right has is that the pollsters are over-estimating the black and hispanic vote and under-estimating the white vote. That could happen, and if it does, the polls could all be wrong.

Nobody with a shred of credibility re-weights polls by party ID. Yesterday's Republicans are today's independents disgusted with the tea party, which is why Romney's winning them.
Maybe. That's a theory, but it's not necessarily a fact. And some pollsters do adjust for party ID (Rasmussen?).
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Old 11-04-2012, 05:42 PM   #1080
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You are an uniformed fool. BTW, Did you make a bet with Dirkshun?
How many times can Direckshun be forced to leave?
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