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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-04-2012, 05:44 PM   #1081
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
You are an uniformed fool. BTW, Did you make a bet with Dirkshun?
I actually think he's Mitt Romney. Think about it. They're both trying to convince themselves that it will happen.
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Old 11-04-2012, 05:56 PM   #1082
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Old 11-04-2012, 05:58 PM   #1083
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
The turnout issue is the key, as RINGLEADER has been saying. I have a hard time believing that the samples (which find party identification makeups that match or exceed those of 2008 in terms of democrat dominance) are random reflections of actual likely voters. If they aren't right, then the degree to which they're wrong will determine whether the final result is a close Obama win, a close Romney win, or a substantial Romney win.
Ok but that seems to me you have a problem with all the polling then.

IIRC NS actually accounts for turnout in his model unlike the other aggregation people.
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Old 11-04-2012, 06:02 PM   #1084
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Yesterday's Republicans are today's independents disgusted with the tea party, which is why Romney's winning them.
That is Josh Marshall's theory as well as some others. They are basing it on the fact that self-identified Reps are extremely low, something like 20-25%
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Old 11-04-2012, 06:07 PM   #1085
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Thank you. And since you brought up grains of sand to describe how little a single result means in terms of validating or indicting his model, I think we should recognize that the vaunted 538 track record is made up of tiny grains of sand as well (perhaps even tinier than this one would be since both 2008 and 2010 were wave elections and this one appears to be less likely to be one).
My magnificent post 984 covered this one as well. We have well over 100 of grains of sand from those years if one considers state presidential outcomes, gubernatorial races, and house and senate races. We'll add a bunch more on Tuesday. He called the overwhelming majority of the past races correctly, but I would contend the binary win-lose outcome of a race isn't the most rigorous way of evaluating a given race. It would be better test to compare his predictions (final, -1 mo, -2 mo, -4 mo and -6 mo) against the final outcomes and compare his predictions against those of just raw polls. After all the fanfare he's received, I'm sure that will be forth coming after the election. If no one else picks up the torch, I will eventually get to it.
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Old 11-04-2012, 06:09 PM   #1086
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Ok but that seems to me you have a problem with all the polling then.

IIRC NS actually accounts for turnout in his model unlike the other aggregation people.
Yes, most of the polling will either be right or wrong together.
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Old 11-04-2012, 06:09 PM   #1087
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
My magnificent post 984 covered this one as well. We have well over 100 of grains of sand from those years if one considers state presidential outcomes, gubernatorial races, and house and senate races. We'll add a bunch more on Tuesday. He called the overwhelming majority of the past races correctly, but I would contend the binary win-lose outcome of a race isn't the most rigorous way of evaluating a given race. It would be better test to compare his predictions (final, -1 mo, -2 mo, -4 mo and -60 mo) against the final outcomes and compare his predictions against those of just raw polls. After all the fanfare he's received, I'm sure that will be forth coming after the election. If no one else picks up the torch, I will eventually get to it.
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Old 11-04-2012, 06:12 PM   #1088
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Ok but that seems to me you have a problem with all the polling then.

IIRC NS actually accounts for turnout in his model unlike the other aggregation people.
I don't have a problem with the polling unless the turnout is different then what they are projecting. And, as I've said before, there are so many polls estimating the turnout in the same way that I find it hard to believe that they're all wrong. But they were in 2004, so it can happen.

The "shedding" of GOP votes to Obama isn't happening this time. If the GOP reaches parity with the DEMs Obama will lose. No matter what any poll or NS says.
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Old 11-04-2012, 06:12 PM   #1089
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
That is Josh Marshall's theory as well as some others. They are basing it on the fact that self-identified Reps are extremely low, something like 20-25%
clearly, independent voters, the same independents from 4 years ago, now hate Obama, and republicans are just not answering the phone. You are reaching too many white independents and democrats. Romney's going to win.
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Old 11-04-2012, 06:18 PM   #1090
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
That is Josh Marshall's theory as well as some others. They are basing it on the fact that self-identified Reps are extremely low, something like 20-25%
What poll showed unweighted party ID that low?
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Old 11-04-2012, 06:19 PM   #1091
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
clearly, independent voters, the same independents from 4 years ago, now hate Obama, and republicans are just not answering the phone. You are reaching too many white independents and democrats. Romney's going to win.
Sarcasm, right?
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Old 11-04-2012, 06:26 PM   #1092
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
What poll showed unweighted party ID that low?
As I said it was TPM theory. http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archive...ndies_lose.php

They have party id tracked at the end of October of 32.5-D 25-R I-33
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Old 11-04-2012, 06:31 PM   #1093
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
As I said it was TPM theory. http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archive...ndies_lose.php

They have party id tracked at the end of October of 32.5-D 25-R I-33
So it's not 20%. It will be interesting to see what that final breakdown is.
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Old 11-04-2012, 06:34 PM   #1094
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Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
So it's not 20%. It will be interesting to see what that final breakdown is.
No sorry I was going off my memory. The lowest it got was 22.5 about a year ago
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Old 11-04-2012, 06:38 PM   #1095
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Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
No sorry I was going off my memory. The lowest it got was 22.5 about a year ago
No worries. 6 points would still be enough for Obama victory.

I'll once again go on record saying whoever wins will do so with > 300 electoral votes.
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