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Old 08-07-2012, 08:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 10:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-05-2012, 01:09 AM   #1141
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Updated to 86.3% now. It may not be truly over until Romney concedes on Tuesday night, but it's not looking good for him. He's got about the same odds right now as Ken Pomeroy gives OU of beating KU in Allen Fieldhouse this season.
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Old 11-05-2012, 05:01 AM   #1142
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Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla View Post
not sure how it's a game. I'd simply like to know who these folks are that seem to bother you so.
I gave you a couple of suggestions about how you might satisfy your curiosity. Now you're own your own.
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Old 11-05-2012, 05:04 AM   #1143
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Originally Posted by ReynardMuldrake View Post
Why? That's exactly what a poll is, a random sampling of likely voters.
That's what a poll sample is supposed to be, which is the point. The polls are only as good as the pollster's ability to find a sample that matches his assumptions.
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:47 AM   #1144
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:49 AM   #1145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
That's what a poll sample is supposed to be, which is the point. The polls are only as good as the pollster's ability to find a sample that matches his assumptions.
I will give you credit, you won't quit fighting. What are you going to say tomorrow night though? Fraud? Media bias? Poll bias? Alien abduction?
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:51 AM   #1146
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Originally Posted by J Diddy View Post
I will give you credit, you won't quit fighting. What are you going to say tomorrow night though? Fraud? Media bias? Poll bias? Alien abduction?
Tomorrow night I'll be saying my emotional goodbyes to Direckshun and Literature.
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:56 AM   #1147
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Tomorrow night I'll be saying my emotional goodbyes to Direckshun and Literature.
Unless you're leaving it won't happen. That being said, I will happily rub your nose in it for 4 years.
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:57 AM   #1148
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Originally Posted by J Diddy View Post
Unless you're leaving it won't happen. That being said, I will happily rub your nose in it for 4 years.
Quoted for future giggles.
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:59 AM   #1149
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Quoted for future giggles.
ditto
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Old 11-05-2012, 10:02 AM   #1150
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
And I'll still betcha that PPP's results aren't close to the final tally.

We will see and if they aren't I won't use them next go around. They have been really good the last 2 elections including the midterms which are harder to do so I am not expecting much difference.
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Old 11-05-2012, 10:10 AM   #1151
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Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
If they're right he's going to win it all.

As I've been saying it's going to be a big win either way. If PPP is correct then Obama will win at > 300.
More and more folks, and websites, seem to be conceding that--albeit at the last minute. Better to be able to say, "well, we got it right! (Even at the last minute)," then to have to explain why you got it wrong....despite pretty clear evidence that you should have been able to get it right.

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Old 11-05-2012, 10:18 AM   #1152
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Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter View Post
More and more folks, and websites, seem to be conceding that--albeit at the last minute. Better to be able to say, "well, we got it right! (Even at the last minute)," then to have to explain why you got it wrong....despite pretty clear evidence that you should have been able to get it right.

Conceding what?
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Old 11-05-2012, 11:18 AM   #1153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Conceding what?
That a Romney win is very unlikely.

The right has been busily putting out revisions to the Romney landslide prediction, covering themselves saying "well, maybe Obama might win because of this or that... BUT its still close, get out there and vote!"
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Old 11-05-2012, 11:30 AM   #1154
patteeu patteeu is offline
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
That a Romney win is very unlikely.

The right has been busily putting out revisions to the Romney landslide prediction, covering themselves saying "well, maybe Obama might win because of this or that... BUT its still close, get out there and vote!"
That's ridiculous. First of all, RINGLEADER didn't concede any such thing.

"The right" that I've seen/read have been consistently pointing out that if the polls are right, the consensus is that Obama has the lead. But "the right" then explains why they remain bullish on Romney (although very few of them have ever predicted a landslide). I don't know who you've been watching/reading but they aren't representative of "the right" if you're accurately describing them.
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Old 11-05-2012, 12:03 PM   #1155
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Why dont they just have people vote in the 7 or 8 swing states? Those are the only voters that seem to matter since the two candidates ignored the rest of the country.
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