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Old 08-07-2012, 08:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 10:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-05-2012, 02:33 PM   #1171
dirk digler dirk digler is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
OK, so what? It might be an innovation that goes down as a dismal failure or it might end up leading the way to more accurate polls in the future.



I don't think Rasmussen uses a full 39.1% Republican sample either and I don't know what his results are on a state by state basis (although I think his sample size is adequate to get to state level granularity). Whatever party identification adjustment he makes, it ends up being a much more modest move toward Republicans than this voter id poll might superficially suggest. I don't know if he has a math reason for his level of adjustment or if it's the art of his experience. I also don't know whether he'll be right in the end, but just as you find a 40% Republican electorate hard to believe, I find democrat participation advantages in excess of 2008 hard to believe. Most likely, the final result will be somewhere in between.
I was just pointing that out and it is not an innovation he has being doing that all along.

I would like to see his party break down but I am too cheap to pay for it
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Old 11-05-2012, 02:57 PM   #1172
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Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
If Romney by some miracle wins you can count him going after that law and trying to stop it.
It depends on which Romney gets out of bed that morning. Mormon Romney or Mogul Romney.
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Old 11-05-2012, 05:18 PM   #1173
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
The argument is that it will help you get a more representative sample of the entire electorate.
Not if party ID is changing. If you look at exits going back the last couple decades, party ID sometimes swings wildly. If you reweight to a predetermined ratio, you may miss badly.

You might still miss if you re-weight to demographics (maybe the white turnout is more or less than expected), but you probably wont miss by much.

All Rasmussen is basically doing is going "dang it, I got too many Obama voters again. No problem, I'll throw some of them out. There we go, that fixes it"

You are basically implying that white male 50-year old Republicans wont answer the phone and talk to pollsters as much as white male 50-year old Democrats, etc.
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Old 11-05-2012, 05:22 PM   #1174
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Romney's campaign is releasing internal polls tonight, which is not a good sign.

Campaigns do tons and tons of polls every week. They only release the best outliers. Someone (don't remember who) did a study comparing released internals to the election result, and the bias is roughly 5 points in favor of the campaign who released the internal poll.
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:20 PM   #1175
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Karl Rove predicts on The O'Reilly Factor: Romney 285 Obama: 253
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:24 PM   #1176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Karl Rove predicts on The O'Reilly Factor: Romney 285 Obama: 253
I predict Karl Rove gives a lot of excuses tomorrow night.
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:31 PM   #1177
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Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Karl Rove predicts on The O'Reilly Factor: Romney 285 Obama: 253
I remember Fox news election coverage last year, Britt Hume was at the map and they got word that Fox News was calling Ohio for Obama. He called Karl Rove over and put his hand on Karl Rove's should and said Karl it looks like Ohio is gone. Just like he was telling Rove his dog died. The other announcer cut in with the graphic
and announcement. I found it very pathetic and sad and at the same time hilarious.
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:34 PM   #1178
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Romney's campaign is releasing internal polls tonight, which is not a good sign.

Campaigns do tons and tons of polls every week. They only release the best outliers. Someone (don't remember who) did a study comparing released internals to the election result, and the bias is roughly 5 points in favor of the campaign who released the internal poll.
If you recall this study, please update.
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:35 PM   #1179
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Originally Posted by Deberg_1990 View Post
Why dont they just have people vote in the 7 or 8 swing states? Those are the only voters that seem to matter since the two candidates ignored the rest of the country.
My vote matters more than yours.

I kid
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:37 PM   #1180
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
FWIW, Rasmussen Summary of Party Identification gives Republicans a huge identification edge that may contradict the democrat-heavy likely voter samples that most polls are using.

Code:
October 31, 2012                                
         Rep     Dem    Other R - D Quarterly                                
2012                                                    
Oct    39.1%    33.3%    27.5%    5.8%                            
Sep    36.8%    34.2%    29.0%    2.6%    2.6%                                
Aug    37.6%    33.3%    29.2%    4.3%                                    
Jul    34.9%    34.0%    31.1%    0.9%                                    
Jun    35.4%    34.0%    30.5%    1.4%    1.8%                                
May    35.7%    33.8%    30.5%    1.9%                                    
Apr    35.1%    33.1%    31.8%    2.0%                                    
Mar    36.4%    33.4%    30.2%    3.0%    3.3%                                
Feb    36.0%    32.4%    31.6%    3.6%                                    
Jan    35.9%    32.5%    31.6%    3.4%
Holy shit. That explains the Rassmussen bias towards Republicans.
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:38 PM   #1181
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Not looking good for Romney
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Romney officials tell National Review that the campaign "is focused on two key states as Election Day nears: Ohio and Pennsylvania. They believe that they are competitive in Ohio, but should it drift away, they're looking at Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes as a possible substitute for the Buckeye State."

Said a Romney adviser: "We have got to win one of those two states and do well everywhere else. We're still pushing in Ohio, but it's unpredictable. Pennsylvania, however, is really in play."

Romney's final-day schedule -- he will campaign in Pittsburgh and Cleveland.-- reflects his strategy.
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:50 PM   #1182
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Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Not looking good for Romney
Maybe, maybe not. Obama is so worried about PA that he got Bill Clinton to go there at the last minute to do four campaign stops throughout the state. Given the number of states that are toss up states, I do not think the Obama campaign would waste such talent in PA if it was locked up.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:05 PM   #1183
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Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Not looking good for Romney
Really? I read that as being bad for Obama. The deltas between 2008 and now aren't exactly glowing for Obama, dirk.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:13 PM   #1184
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Really? I read that as being bad for Obama. The deltas between 2008 and now aren't exactly glowing for Obama, dirk.
From that quote it appears they are all but conceding Ohio and hoping for PA to turn blue. Even Rasmussen has said in the last few days it was pure fantasy for them to win PA or Michigan
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:14 PM   #1185
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Newsflash, Romney can win without Ohio or Penn.
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