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Old 08-07-2012, 08:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 10:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:30 PM   #1201
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Ok what state are you thinking about then? Michigan?
No, Romney can lose Penn and Ohio and still win as long as he wins Colorado, Iowa, and Wisconsin.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:31 PM   #1202
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
No, Romney can lose Penn and Ohio and still win as long as he wins Colorado, Iowa, and Wisconsin.
Good one. I forgot about WI
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:32 PM   #1203
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I'm amazed at the cockiness of people based solely on these polls.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:33 PM   #1204
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
Yep.
I have to admit, I put Iowa in Romney's column based on Hoover's say so and his experiences in Iowa.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:33 PM   #1205
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Good one. I forgot about WI
Wisconsin could prove to be the shocker of the evening tomorrow night. While I think it will go Obama and the polls say so as well, the entire ordeal with the Walker and what not and some other things I have read has Wisconsin set as a shocker in favor of Romney.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:34 PM   #1206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
I'm amazed at the cockiness of people based solely on these polls.
Yeah, it does surprise me a bit as well. I hope and think Romney is going to win, but I would not bet my house on it. This race is as close or closer than the 2000 race was, and it took the Supreme Court to settle that. Hopefully, that will not be necessary this time around.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:35 PM   #1207
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
I think alnorth is right Rasmussen is the only major poller that weights based on party id.

Also turnout for Reps in 2010 was 35%. I just can't imagine 40% of the electorate are Republicans. If so Romney wins.
Party affiliation and voter turnout are two totally separate things. It is possible to have a plurality of unmotivated voters that stay home, just as it is possible to have a smaller but more highly motivated group of voters that turn out in large numbers.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:37 PM   #1208
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Wisconsin could prove to be the shocker of the evening tomorrow night. While I think it will go Obama and the polls say so as well, the entire ordeal with the Walker and what not and some other things I have read has Wisconsin set as a shocker in favor of Romney.
IIRC, exit polls of pro-Walker voters in the recall were in favor of Obama.

This ticket is going to lose WI, MI, and MA--all the home states.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:37 PM   #1209
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
I'm amazed at the cockiness of people based solely on these polls.
I think the polls are to be taken with a grain of salt save a few. Rasmussen was the most accurate in 2008 and Gallup is reputable.

I think what a lot of people tend to gloss over are the fundamentals such as voter turn out.

What facors Romney tremendously is:

1. The vote turnout for Obama does not appear to be near what is was in 08

2. The support for Romney is exceeding the levels of McCain in 08

When you look at states such as Ohio, Obam won in 08 52-47, more or less. That's 5 points that when you take into account the above 2 points I made, could easily erode and swing a slight favor to Romney.

In reality Romney need only get 3% more support than McCain did in Ohio and that state goes Red. all things considered that can happen easily.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:38 PM   #1210
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
I'm amazed at the cockiness of people based solely on these polls.
What's worse is the cockiness of some people when their candidate is losing in the polls.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:38 PM   #1211
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
IIRC, exit polls of pro-Walker voters in the recall were in favor of Obama.

This ticket is going to lose WI, MI, and MA--all the home states.
The exit polls of Walker also said that vote was close and it wasn't. Nevermind that vote was how long ago? Romney picked up a lot of momentum across the board after the debates.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:38 PM   #1212
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
No, Romney can lose Penn and Ohio and still win as long as he wins Colorado, Iowa, and Wisconsin.
Wisconsin? Most polling has it Obama by 4-6%, with a 90% chance of Obama....

Seriously?

If that happens, Romney could pull it off. Very unlikely though, IMHO.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:39 PM   #1213
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I'm not betting my house on a Romney victory either, but people around here sound like there willing to bet big on Obama. I don't get it.

The excitement in the Romney campaign is not fake. I'm not a big fan of Romney. If you don't believe me just google "Stench Romney" and read away. The only thing Obama has in Iowa is urban population centers, and he's not nearly as dominate as he was 4 years ago. He's also going to get crushed in rural Iowa.

Now that's just Iowa, but there are similarities in a number of states.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:42 PM   #1214
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Here is what I don't get about some of you on the Left. On one hand the Left says "Romney is desperate, that's why he is still in Florida and trying to expand the map in PA"

By the same token you see Obama in Florida, sending his peeps to PA and he goes to Wisconsin.

If the line of thinking is "Why is Romney in Florida, he should have it locked up"

or

"Romney is desperate which is why he is trying for PA"

Then the same has to apply for Obama with Wisconsin, PA and Florida

There is no sensible reason Obama should be in Wisconsin if he, as Romney with Florida, should have it locked up.

The fact is this race is razor thin at the moment and I don't think either side is taking anything for granted and is trying to exploit every opportunity that exists.
I wouldn't say Romney or Obama are desperate by shoring up the states they should win which for Romney is Florida and for Obama Wisconsin and Iowa.

Being desperate for Obama would be going to AZ since the polls have tightened and he is only down by 5-8 pts.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:42 PM   #1215
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Another Iowa example.

The Des Moines Register has the race Obama +5, but they also say that Romney is +19 in one of the congressional districts. That's not possible in Iowa. Their poll doesn't break down the number of R's and D's that were sampled. Why? Because they didn't bother to ask, but hey, they made sure there was gender and age balance. WTF?
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