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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:43 PM   #1216
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
I wouldn't say Romney or Obama are desperate by shoring up the states they should win which for Romney is Florida and for Obama Wisconsin and Iowa.

Being desperate for Obama would be going to AZ since the polls have tightened and he is only down by 5-8 pts.
agree.

Its always a mad scramble in the end
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:44 PM   #1217
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Something to keep in mind with Ohio as well...

Ohio voted against Obamacare with 66% of the vote against

Just one of the many factors to consider
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:45 PM   #1218
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Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
I'm not betting my house on a Romney victory either, but people around here sound like there willing to bet big on Obama. I don't get it.

The excitement in the Romney campaign is not fake. I'm not a big fan of Romney. If you don't believe me just google "Stench Romney" and read away. The only thing Obama has in Iowa is urban population centers, and he's not nearly as dominate as he was 4 years ago. He's also going to get crushed in rural Iowa.

Now that's just Iowa, but there are similarities in a number of states.
This makes sense to me. Don't most pollsters focus on the larger cities and urban areas, and not so much on the rural areas?
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:45 PM   #1219
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
The exit polls of Walker also said that vote was close and it wasn't. Nevermind that vote was how long ago? Romney picked up a lot of momentum across the board after the debates.
You mentioned the Walker recall as relevant.

Anyway, every poll has O with a decent lead, and has for a few months at least.
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:46 PM   #1220
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:47 PM   #1221
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
I'm not betting my house on a Romney victory either, but people around here sound like there willing to bet big on Obama. I don't get it.

The excitement in the Romney campaign is not fake. I'm not a big fan of Romney. If you don't believe me just google "Stench Romney" and read away. The only thing Obama has in Iowa is urban population centers, and he's not nearly as dominate as he was 4 years ago. He's also going to get crushed in rural Iowa.

Now that's just Iowa, but there are similarities in a number of states.
You mean, the parts where the people live?
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:47 PM   #1222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
You mentioned the Walker recall as relevant.

Anyway, every poll has O with a decent lead, and has for a few months at least.
Yeah, I mentioned a vote, you tried to inject exit polls. Apples and oranges.
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:47 PM   #1223
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
This makes sense to me. Don't most pollsters focus on the larger cities and urban areas, and not so much on the rural areas?
They don't do it on purpose, but it is more difficult to gauge rural support or pockets of intense support because urban people are more likely to get surveyed, they just have better odds.
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:49 PM   #1224
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
I'm not betting my house on a Romney victory either, but people around here sound like there willing to bet big on Obama. I don't get it.
Nate Silver: The Ron Paul of Democrats.
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:49 PM   #1225
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
You mean, the parts where the people live?
Dude, it's Iowa. Our metros would be considered rural in some states.
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:50 PM   #1226
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Exit polls sucked in the 2008 Dem Primary, the 2012 Republican primary, and the Wis Recall. I don't know why we even do them anymore.
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:52 PM   #1227
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Wisconsin could prove to be the shocker of the evening tomorrow night. While I think it will go Obama and the polls say so as well, the entire ordeal with the Walker and what not and some other things I have read has Wisconsin set as a shocker in favor of Romney.
The one thing to keep in mind about the recall IIRC is that all the polls had Walker winning even though some showed tightening. For example PPP had it a 5 for a long time and then 3 the last day (50-47) Final result was Walker 53-46.
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:53 PM   #1228
cosmo20002 cosmo20002 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
Dude, it's Iowa. Our metros would be considered rural in some states.
I understand, but doing well in urban centers (Des Moines, Council Bluffs, Quad Cities area) kind of makes up for Ottumwa and Red Oak.
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:54 PM   #1229
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Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Not looking good for Romney
Why does that look so bad for Romney? The flip side is that Obama has to do the same thing, i.e. win one of the two and do well everywhere.
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:54 PM   #1230
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
Exit polls sucked in the 2008 Dem Primary, the 2012 Republican primary, and the Wis Recall. I don't know why we even do them anymore.
Yeah....agreed. I love lying to those exit polling bastards. Makes the talking head discussions later more entertaining. Heh.

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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Why does that look so bad for Romney? The flip side is that Obama has to do the same thing, i.e. win one of the two and do well everywhere.

If you don't think Obama's math is much easier than Romney's math...you must be smoking the new "legal" in Colorado.
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Old 11-05-2012, 07:55 PM
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