Home Mail MemberMap Chat (0) Wallpapers
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > The Ed & Dave Lounge > D.C.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
The Master
 
whoman69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Marion, IA
Casino cash: $61470
538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
Posts: 23,081
whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2012, 08:36 PM   #1246
patteeu patteeu is offline
The 23rd Pillar
 
patteeu's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Casino cash: $473555
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaFace View Post
Suffice it to say, if Romney wins this thing, NS is going to lose quite a bit of credibility. I know that cdcox is right with the weatherman comparisons, but when you say you're 92% sure of something and it ends up going the other way, it certainly raises doubts that the 92% was an accurate measure in the first place.
It would just be a grain of sand.

Here's a graphical representation of Nate's model. Can you spot the blue grain of sand? Neither can I. I've learned that that's how inconsequential it would be.

__________________


"I'll see you guys in New York." ISIS Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to US military personnel upon his release from US custody at Camp Bucca in Iraq during Obama's first year in office.
Posts: 75,744
patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2012, 08:37 PM   #1247
patteeu patteeu is offline
The 23rd Pillar
 
patteeu's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Casino cash: $473555
Quote:
Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
Looks like Nate Silver is going all in...he is more confident of an Obama win than Obama is.
It's math.
__________________


"I'll see you guys in New York." ISIS Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to US military personnel upon his release from US custody at Camp Bucca in Iraq during Obama's first year in office.
Posts: 75,744
patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2012, 08:37 PM   #1248
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
Supporter
 
petegz28's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
Casino cash: $264951
Can someone give me just a brief education on how 538 models?
__________________
"Finally, anyone who uses the terms, irregardless, a whole nother, or all of a sudden shall be sentenced to a work camp."

Stewie Griffin
Posts: 65,528
petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2012, 08:40 PM   #1249
WoodDraw WoodDraw is offline
Veteran
 
WoodDraw's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2004
Casino cash: $42077
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
I'm amazed at the cockiness of people based solely on these polls.
I'm not cocky at all. I think Obama will win, but I'll be nervous as hell tomorrow night. There are enough things that could go wrong to allow a Romney win.
Posts: 3,784
WoodDraw has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.WoodDraw has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.WoodDraw has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.WoodDraw has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.WoodDraw has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.WoodDraw has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.WoodDraw has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.WoodDraw has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.WoodDraw has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.WoodDraw has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.WoodDraw has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2012, 08:41 PM   #1250
ReynardMuldrake ReynardMuldrake is offline
2 Legit 2 Colquitt
 
ReynardMuldrake's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2010
Casino cash: $60264
Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Can someone give me just a brief education on how 538 models?
There's no quick summary; here's a link if you want to read up on it:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/methodology/
__________________

"Letís be honest, the Big 12 is better than the SEC."
http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebaske...s-poy-ballot-3
Posts: 3,167
ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2012, 08:41 PM   #1251
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
Supporter
 
petegz28's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
Casino cash: $264951
To contrast 538 a touch, Rasmussen, who was the most accurate in 2008 shows the following:

Colorado:
Romney 50
Obama 47

Ohio:
Romney 49
Obama 49

Virginia:
Romney 50
Obama 48

Wisconsin:
Romney 49
Obama 49

Iowa:
Romney 49
Obama 48
__________________
"Finally, anyone who uses the terms, irregardless, a whole nother, or all of a sudden shall be sentenced to a work camp."

Stewie Griffin
Posts: 65,528
petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2012, 08:43 PM   #1252
patteeu patteeu is offline
The 23rd Pillar
 
patteeu's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Casino cash: $473555
Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Can someone give me just a brief education on how 538 models?
The original might be too technical, so I removed all the equations and just left the pictures.

__________________


"I'll see you guys in New York." ISIS Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to US military personnel upon his release from US custody at Camp Bucca in Iraq during Obama's first year in office.
Posts: 75,744
patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2012, 08:43 PM   #1253
ReynardMuldrake ReynardMuldrake is offline
2 Legit 2 Colquitt
 
ReynardMuldrake's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2010
Casino cash: $60264
Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
To contrast 538 a touch, Rasmussen, who was the most accurate in 2008 shows the following:
Question: Was Rasmussen weighting polls based on party affiliation back in 2008? I'm honestly not sure.
__________________

"Letís be honest, the Big 12 is better than the SEC."
http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebaske...s-poy-ballot-3
Posts: 3,167
ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2012, 08:43 PM   #1254
DaFace DaFace is offline
Version 3.0
 
DaFace's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Donkey Land
Casino cash: $658729
Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Can someone give me just a brief education on how 538 models?
I'm not sure it's possible to really explain it properly "briefly." Here's the full writeup:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/methodology/

Basically, it's a very in-depth model that tries to predict the race based not only on polling averages, but also on historical performance of various polls in actually predicting voting differences. It includes "house effects" for the various pollsters based on past performance to the right or left of actual turnouts in past years and that type of thing.
Posts: 27,875
DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaFace is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2012, 08:44 PM   #1255
Mr. Kotter Mr. Kotter is offline
Lookin' for the answers...
 
Mr. Kotter's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Somewhere else
Casino cash: $10932525
Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Can someone give me just a brief education on how 538 models?
He uses hsitory, real world stuff, and math, even, INSTEAD of pulling shit (including ideological opinions) out of his ass...like FOX, Drudge, and RWNJ radio. That's the biggest reason he will be right. Heh.

Not that I expect you to really understand. Just promise us to stick around to....take it like a man. Heh.
__________________
Alex Smith will be better than Geno or Cassel, Alex Smith will be better than Geno or Cassel, Alex Smith will be better than Geno or Cassel, Alex Smith will be better than Geno or Cassel...
Posts: 39,996
Mr. Kotter has disabled reputation
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2012, 08:46 PM   #1256
patteeu patteeu is offline
The 23rd Pillar
 
patteeu's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Casino cash: $473555
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReynardMuldrake View Post
Question: Was Rasmussen weighting polls based on party affiliation back in 2008? I'm honestly not sure.
I don't know the answer to that, but dirk seemed to indicate that he's been doing it for a while.
__________________


"I'll see you guys in New York." ISIS Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to US military personnel upon his release from US custody at Camp Bucca in Iraq during Obama's first year in office.
Posts: 75,744
patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.patteeu is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2012, 08:46 PM   #1257
BigRedChief BigRedChief is offline
Brainwashed
 
BigRedChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Swims with fishes
Casino cash: $301715
VARSITY
Quote:
Originally Posted by WoodDraw View Post
I'm not cocky at all. I think Obama will win, but I'll be nervous as hell tomorrow night. There are enough things that could go wrong to allow a Romney win.
NS has a Obama at a 92% chance of winning. A polular vote of 50.9% Obama vs. 48.2%. EC win at 315 for Obama.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by MTG#10 View Post
I believe Hitler hated Jews and had a lot of them killed. I dont believe it was anywhere close to 6 million though. I'm not an anti-semite; I just think that number has been severely inflated and there is a lot of evidence that supports this belief.
Posts: 42,779
BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2012, 08:47 PM   #1258
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
Supporter
 
petegz28's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
Casino cash: $264951
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter View Post
He uses hsitory, real world stuff, and math, even, INSTEAD of pulling shit (including ideological opinions) out of his ass...like FOX, Drudge, and RWNJ radio. That's the biggest reason he will be right. Heh.

Not that I expect you to really understand. Just promise us to stick around to....take it like a man. Heh.
You are such a ray of sunshine
__________________
"Finally, anyone who uses the terms, irregardless, a whole nother, or all of a sudden shall be sentenced to a work camp."

Stewie Griffin
Posts: 65,528
petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.petegz28 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2012, 08:49 PM   #1259
RINGLEADER RINGLEADER is offline
RING****ER
 
RINGLEADER's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Confusion, USA
Casino cash: $335669
Quote:
Originally Posted by WoodDraw View Post
I'm not cocky at all. I think Obama will win, but I'll be nervous as hell tomorrow night. There are enough things that could go wrong to allow a Romney win.
That's a good summary. But I think we'll have a pretty good idea early in the day.
Posts: 22,941
RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.RINGLEADER Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2012, 08:49 PM   #1260
KC_Connection KC_Connection is offline
MVP
 
KC_Connection's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2006
Casino cash: $10216766
http://election.princeton.edu/

The Princeton Election Consortium gives Obama a 98.2% chance at winning. At least Nate Silver's model gives Romney a better chance than that.
Posts: 21,325
KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
  Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump




All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:10 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.