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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:36 PM   #1246
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Originally Posted by DaFace View Post
Suffice it to say, if Romney wins this thing, NS is going to lose quite a bit of credibility. I know that cdcox is right with the weatherman comparisons, but when you say you're 92% sure of something and it ends up going the other way, it certainly raises doubts that the 92% was an accurate measure in the first place.
It would just be a grain of sand.

Here's a graphical representation of Nate's model. Can you spot the blue grain of sand? Neither can I. I've learned that that's how inconsequential it would be.

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Old 11-05-2012, 08:37 PM   #1247
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Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
Looks like Nate Silver is going all in...he is more confident of an Obama win than Obama is.
It's math.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:37 PM   #1248
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Can someone give me just a brief education on how 538 models?
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:40 PM   #1249
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Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
I'm amazed at the cockiness of people based solely on these polls.
I'm not cocky at all. I think Obama will win, but I'll be nervous as hell tomorrow night. There are enough things that could go wrong to allow a Romney win.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:41 PM   #1250
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Can someone give me just a brief education on how 538 models?
There's no quick summary; here's a link if you want to read up on it:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/methodology/
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:41 PM   #1251
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To contrast 538 a touch, Rasmussen, who was the most accurate in 2008 shows the following:

Colorado:
Romney 50
Obama 47

Ohio:
Romney 49
Obama 49

Virginia:
Romney 50
Obama 48

Wisconsin:
Romney 49
Obama 49

Iowa:
Romney 49
Obama 48
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:43 PM   #1252
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Can someone give me just a brief education on how 538 models?
The original might be too technical, so I removed all the equations and just left the pictures.

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Old 11-05-2012, 08:43 PM   #1253
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
To contrast 538 a touch, Rasmussen, who was the most accurate in 2008 shows the following:
Question: Was Rasmussen weighting polls based on party affiliation back in 2008? I'm honestly not sure.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:43 PM   #1254
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Can someone give me just a brief education on how 538 models?
I'm not sure it's possible to really explain it properly "briefly." Here's the full writeup:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/methodology/

Basically, it's a very in-depth model that tries to predict the race based not only on polling averages, but also on historical performance of various polls in actually predicting voting differences. It includes "house effects" for the various pollsters based on past performance to the right or left of actual turnouts in past years and that type of thing.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:44 PM   #1255
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Can someone give me just a brief education on how 538 models?
He uses hsitory, real world stuff, and math, even, INSTEAD of pulling shit (including ideological opinions) out of his ass...like FOX, Drudge, and RWNJ radio. That's the biggest reason he will be right. Heh.

Not that I expect you to really understand. Just promise us to stick around to....take it like a man. Heh.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:46 PM   #1256
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReynardMuldrake View Post
Question: Was Rasmussen weighting polls based on party affiliation back in 2008? I'm honestly not sure.
I don't know the answer to that, but dirk seemed to indicate that he's been doing it for a while.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:46 PM   #1257
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Originally Posted by WoodDraw View Post
I'm not cocky at all. I think Obama will win, but I'll be nervous as hell tomorrow night. There are enough things that could go wrong to allow a Romney win.
NS has a Obama at a 92% chance of winning. A polular vote of 50.9% Obama vs. 48.2%. EC win at 315 for Obama.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:47 PM   #1258
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter View Post
He uses hsitory, real world stuff, and math, even, INSTEAD of pulling shit (including ideological opinions) out of his ass...like FOX, Drudge, and RWNJ radio. That's the biggest reason he will be right. Heh.

Not that I expect you to really understand. Just promise us to stick around to....take it like a man. Heh.
You are such a ray of sunshine
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:49 PM   #1259
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WoodDraw View Post
I'm not cocky at all. I think Obama will win, but I'll be nervous as hell tomorrow night. There are enough things that could go wrong to allow a Romney win.
That's a good summary. But I think we'll have a pretty good idea early in the day.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:49 PM   #1260
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http://election.princeton.edu/

The Princeton Election Consortium gives Obama a 98.2% chance at winning. At least Nate Silver's model gives Romney a better chance than that.
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