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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:49 PM   #1261
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
NS has a Obama at a 92% chance of winning. A polular vote of 50.9% Obama vs. 48.2%. EC win at 315 for Obama.
I don't understand why he doesn't just put it at 100% and call it a day...
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:51 PM   #1262
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
Romney is going to do well in Council Bluffs, Sioux City, and Davenport.

Obama's play is Des Moines and Cedar Rapids as well as Ames and Iowa City.
Obama got 57% in Scott county in 2008, more than 12,000 votes difference. McCain won in Woodbury by 1% and 300 votes. McCain won Pottawatamie by 1% as well with 800 votes difference.

You are discounting other Democratic strong holds in eastern Iowa. Obama won Dubuque county by 10,000 votes and a 60-39% margin. In Johnson county it was 70%-29% and a difference of more than 30,000 votes. That margin of votes was larger than the difference in both Polk and Linn county.

I don't see King voters being fired up to come out for him. Boswell and Latham are in a dogfight in the 3rd. Braley and Loebsack will bring bigger coattails to bring in voters.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:51 PM   #1263
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReynardMuldrake View Post
Question: Was Rasmussen weighting polls based on party affiliation back in 2008? I'm honestly not sure.
I don't know but Rasmussen has consistently been one of the most accurate polling outlets for quite some time. I am not saying there isn't any validity in what 538 does but when you take a poll of polls, which is what I see 538 doing generally, you can severly dilute the results.

I look at it from the same aspect that I look at listening to financial market commentators. You present 1 stock to 10 analysts and you will most likely get 10 different opinions. So what I learned long ago is to narrow down the 1 or 2 that are consistently accruate and chalk the rest up to noise. Not saying the others don't have their moments but what I look for is consistency.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:52 PM   #1264
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaFace View Post
I'm not sure it's possible to really explain it properly "briefly." Here's the full writeup:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/methodology/

Basically, it's a very in-depth model that tries to predict the race based not only on polling averages, but also on historical performance of various polls in actually predicting voting differences. It includes "house effects" for the various pollsters based on past performance to the right or left of actual turnouts in past years and that type of thing.
Yep.

Also the Obama campaign gave NS access to their internal polling numbers in 2008 because they wanted to compare their model to his. I suspect the Obama team are probably showing the same types of numbers as NS is or maybe a little less. I know they are not really counting on winning NC or FL but feel confidant in VA and OH.

Quote:
His work also, it turns out, drew the attention of the Obama campaign. Sasha Issenberg's new book on the science of politics, The Victory Lab reports that Silver's data-centric approach and skepticism of other media's — as the Obama campaign saw it — unsophisticated take on state polls won him an "obsessive following" in Obama's Chicago headquarters.

Obama's polling analysts, Issenberg writes, wanted to test their internal polls against Silver's model. And so — in an unusual step for the closely-held campaign, and for the analyst, who was then running his own website, FiveThirtyEight.com — the Obama campaign offered Silver access to thousands of its own internal polls, on the condition Silver sign a confidentiality agreement, which he did. (Silver, who now writes a widely-read blog for the New York Times declined to comment on the arrangement.)

"We wanted a little external validation that what we were seeing is what was actually going on," Michael Simon, a former Obama aide, told Issenberg.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:52 PM   #1265
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Obama has 67 local offices in Iowa, Romney has 9. The ground game isn't even close.
You're don't know what you are even talking about. The number of offices doesn't mean squat. Its just a quantifiable thing that stupid people can visualize. Nine regional offices are all you need. I'm pretty sure that Al Gore and Kerry had 5x the number of offices that George W. Bush had.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:54 PM   #1266
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
I don't know but Rasmussen has consistently been one of the most accurate polling outlets for quite some time. I am not saying there isn't any validity in what 538 does but when you take a poll of polls, which is what I see 538 doing generally, you can severly dilute the results.
In theory, that's exactly what 538 does the best. Pollsters that have consistently produced good results in the past are weighted much more heavily than those that have not. So, if Rasmussen has been one of the most accurate in the past, it will have already been weighted more heavily than others.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:54 PM   #1267
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Don't worry guys. If Norfolk State can beat Missouri (3% chance according to KenPom), though, Romney can beat Obama.

Last edited by KC_Connection; 11-05-2012 at 09:03 PM..
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:54 PM   #1268
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post

There was a really interesting article over at National Review ...
I stopped reading at 'National Review'. Last I checked, Mitt was getting fluffed in a major way over there. I'll be glad when all the partisan tripe dies down. Can only hope that the folks in DC will be "reaching across the aisle" after the election and doing what needs to be done.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:54 PM   #1269
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
I don't know but Rasmussen has consistently been one of the most accurate polling outlets for quite some time. I am not saying there isn't any validity in what 538 does but when you take a poll of polls, which is what I see 538 doing generally, you can severly dilute the results.

I look at it from the same aspect that I look at listening to financial market commentators. You present 1 stock to 10 analysts and you will most likely get 10 different opinions. So what I learned long ago is to narrow down the 1 or 2 that are consistently accruate and chalk the rest up to noise. Not saying the others don't have their moments but what I look for is consistency.
It is alot more complicated than that. The Princeton Election Consortium basically aggregates all the polls and returns a result. Right now it is at an 98% Obama win.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:55 PM   #1270
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Obama got 57% in Scott county in 2008, more than 12,000 votes difference. McCain won in Woodbury by 1% and 300 votes. McCain won Pottawatamie by 1% as well with 800 votes difference.

You are discounting other Democratic strong holds in eastern Iowa. Obama won Dubuque county by 10,000 votes and a 60-39% margin. In Johnson county it was 70%-29% and a difference of more than 30,000 votes. That margin of votes was larger than the difference in both Polk and Linn county.

I don't see King voters being fired up to come out for him. Boswell and Latham are in a dogfight in the 3rd. Braley and Loebsack will bring bigger coattails to bring in voters.
You have no clue what you're even talking about.

Romney is going to outperform McCain by a mile, and Obama is going to under perform Obama08 in places like Davenport and Dubuque. We will know tomorrow.

Your Steve King statement is so off I almost decided not to even respond to your post.
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Old 11-05-2012, 08:55 PM   #1271
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Yep.

Also the Obama campaign gave NS access to their internal polling numbers in 2008 because they wanted to compare their model to his. I suspect the Obama team are probably showing the same types of numbers as NS is or maybe a little less. I know they are not really counting on winning NC or FL but feel confidant in VA and OH.
So what you're saying is that even with access to Obama's internal poll #'s, Rasmussen was still more accurate.
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:00 PM   #1272
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReynardMuldrake View Post
Question: Was Rasmussen weighting polls based on party affiliation back in 2008? I'm honestly not sure.
Yes. That is his method.
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:02 PM   #1273
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
So what you're saying is that even with access to Obama's internal poll #'s, Rasmussen was still more accurate.
uh no. NS nailed the 2008 election.
Quote:
The accuracy of his November 2008 presidential election predictions—he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states. The only state he missed was Indiana, which went for Barack Obama by 1%. He also correctly predicted the winner of all 35 Senate races that year.
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:04 PM   #1274
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The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 92.2% of the time with an average of 315.3 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.9-48.2 or a 2.7 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 53.2% Obama
North Carolina 72.3% Romney
Virginia 81.5% Obama
Colorado 81.9% Obama
New Hampshire 86.0% Obama
Iowa 86.0% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 80%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:04 PM   #1275
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Who couldn't predict the 2008 election?
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