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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:04 PM   #1276
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
So what you're saying is that even with access to Obama's internal poll #'s, Rasmussen was still more accurate.
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:06 PM   #1277
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
I don't know but Rasmussen has consistently been one of the most accurate polling outlets for quite some time. I am not saying there isn't any validity in what 538 does but when you take a poll of polls, which is what I see 538 doing generally, you can severly dilute the results.

I look at it from the same aspect that I look at listening to financial market commentators. You present 1 stock to 10 analysts and you will most likely get 10 different opinions. So what I learned long ago is to narrow down the 1 or 2 that are consistently accruate and chalk the rest up to noise. Not saying the others don't have their moments but what I look for is consistency.
If Rasmussen's methodology was different in 2008, the track record goes out the window. You're starting from scratch at that point. If I knew it was the same I would take those numbers more seriously.

I still suspect that Rasmussen's numbers have been tilted towards Romney, they really have been an outlier all election season. It's also possible he could look like a genius tomorrow. I'll be watching with interest tomorrow to see who got it right.
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:08 PM   #1278
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2010 Mid Terms NS correctly predicted:

Senate: 34 out of 36
House: Predicted Reps to win 55 seats, they actually won 63
Governors: 36 out of 37
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:09 PM   #1279
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Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Yes. That is his method.
I thought I read somewhere that that was a fairly recent change? But I couldn't remember what year.
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:11 PM   #1280
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The last three elections have been blowouts. Having a good record in those elections takes as much skill as it does to pick against the Chiefs every sunday.
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:11 PM   #1281
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReynardMuldrake View Post
Question: Was Rasmussen weighting polls based on party affiliation back in 2008? I'm honestly not sure.
see for yourself
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...ty_affiliation
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:14 PM   #1282
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
2010 Mid Terms NS correctly predicted:

Senate: 34 out of 36
House: Predicted Reps to win 55 seats, they actually won 63
Governors: 36 out of 37
Rasmussenís final 2010 projections were published in the Wall Street Journal projecting that the Republicans would gain 55 or more seats in the House and end up with 48 or 49 Senate seats. The Republicans ended up with a gain of more than 60 House seats and 47 Senate seats.
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:16 PM   #1283
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2004-- George W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote, while John Kerry earned 48.3%. Rasmussen Reports polling projected that Bush would win 50.2% to 48.5%. We were the only firm to project both candidates' totals within half a percentage point (see our 2004 results).

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...s_track_record
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:16 PM   #1284
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
You have no clue what you're even talking about.

Romney is going to outperform McCain by a mile, and Obama is going to under perform Obama08 in places like Davenport and Dubuque. We will know tomorrow.

Your Steve King statement is so off I almost decided not to even respond to your post.
Steve King backed up the Akin "legitimate rape" statements. How am I off base there?

Romney has to outperform McCain by a mile. He lost by 146,000 votes. The unemployment rate in Iowa is 2.7% below the national average.
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:19 PM   #1285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Steve King backed up the Akin "legitimate rape" statements. How am I off base there?

Romney has to outperform McCain by a mile. He lost by 146,000 votes. The unemployment rate in Iowa is 2.7% below the national average.
Romeny seems to be outperforming McCain by a mile
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:20 PM   #1286
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReynardMuldrake View Post
I thought I read somewhere that that was a fairly recent change? But I couldn't remember what year.
As I understand it he uses a D+3 weighting
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:23 PM   #1287
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
You're don't know what you are even talking about. The number of offices doesn't mean squat. Its just a quantifiable thing that stupid people can visualize. Nine regional offices are all you need. I'm pretty sure that Al Gore and Kerry had 5x the number of offices that George W. Bush had.
You really think Kerry and Gore were anywhere near as organized as Obama, who is doing this for the 2nd time?
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:26 PM   #1288
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
Steve King backed up the Akin "legitimate rape" statements. How am I off base there?

Romney has to outperform McCain by a mile. He lost by 146,000 votes. The unemployment rate in Iowa is 2.7% below the national average.
It doesn't matter what he said or what you think about it. You made a comment on how that race is going and I'm saying you are talking out of your ass.
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:27 PM   #1289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
You really think Kerry and Gore were anywhere near as organized as Obama, who is doing this for the 2nd time?
My point is Democrats always have 5x the offices Republicans do in Iowa. Its a meaningless stat.
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:27 PM   #1290
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
It doesn't matter what he said or what you think about it. You made a comment on how that race is going and I'm saying you are talking out of your ass.
When it comes to polls just remember that 2 weeks before the election, Gallup had Jimmy Carter up over Reagan 47-39
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