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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:28 PM   #1291
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
2004-- George W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote, while John Kerry earned 48.3%. Rasmussen Reports polling projected that Bush would win 50.2% to 48.5%. We were the only firm to project both candidates' totals within half a percentage point (see our 2004 results).

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...s_track_record
and I woud say someone nailing the 2004 result is much more impressive than being accurate in 06, 08, or 10.
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:49 PM   #1292
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
My point is Democrats always have 5x the offices Republicans do in Iowa. Its a meaningless stat.
Except for Obama, Gore, Clinton, Clinton, Dukakis
(Kerry lost by a point).
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:52 PM   #1293
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
When it comes to polls just remember that 2 weeks before the election, Gallup had Jimmy Carter up over Reagan 47-39
There have been a few more polls in 2012 than there were in 1980, both nationally, which is irrelevant, and on the state level.
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Old 11-05-2012, 09:54 PM   #1294
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According to wikipedia Rasmussen and Silver partnered in 2008, so for at least some period of time they had mutual respect, although this election cycle Silver has been critical of Rasmussen's methods (they don't poll cell phones).

Rasmussen doesn't attempt to project electoral college outcome. I haven't seen a breakdown of how accurate his presidential polls are at the state level.

If Romney wins, Rasmussen is going to be the undisputed king of the pollsters, since they stand alone as a showing Romney as having a decent chance.
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Old 11-05-2012, 10:06 PM   #1295
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First official votes counted in the country in a small town in NH. The vote was a tie 5-5.
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Quote:
Originally posted by Logical
When the boobs are a bouncin, the Chiefs will be trouncin
What the Raiders fan has said is true, our customs are different. What Al Davis has said is unimportant, and we do not hear his words.
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Old 11-05-2012, 10:06 PM   #1296
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Dixville NH has voted....and it was a tie 5 Votes for Romney, 5 Votes for Obama.
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Old 11-05-2012, 10:08 PM   #1297
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5-5...such a close race.
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Old 11-05-2012, 10:32 PM   #1298
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
According to wikipedia Rasmussen and Silver partnered in 2008, so for at least some period of time they had mutual respect, although this election cycle Silver has been critical of Rasmussen's methods (they don't poll cell phones).

Rasmussen doesn't attempt to project electoral college outcome. I haven't seen a breakdown of how accurate his presidential polls are at the state level.

If Romney wins, Rasmussen is going to be the undisputed king of the pollsters, since they stand alone as a showing Romney as having a decent chance.
In 2012, that boggles the mind.
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Old 11-05-2012, 11:01 PM   #1299
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Nate Silver may have just posted his last update for this election. The nowcast and the forecast have converged at.... 92%. Popular vote margin is almost 3%.

edit: Florida has flipped on 538. It went from barely Romney to barely Obama. Ohio is now over 90% Obama and colored dark blue.

edit2: Geez, this really is a sharp turn in one day. Colorado, Iowa and Virginia all went over 80% tonight. Nebraska's district 2 fell to only about 85% for Romney. The 538 model is going hard Obama and likes the 332 pick, followed by 303 or 347.
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Old 11-05-2012, 11:02 PM   #1300
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
Nate Silver may have just posted his last update for this election. The nowcast and the forecast have converged at.... 92%.
With Florida just now flipping blue.

Brutal.
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Old 11-05-2012, 11:24 PM   #1301
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Go find my post on the DM Register. Seriously, its garbage.
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Old 11-05-2012, 11:36 PM   #1302
cosmo20002 cosmo20002 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
First official votes counted in the country in a small town in NH. The vote was a tie 5-5.
Hart's Location, NH: Obama 23, Romney 9
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Old 11-06-2012, 12:20 AM   #1303
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
With Florida just now flipping blue.

Brutal.
Too many old ppl dyin
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Old 11-06-2012, 12:24 AM   #1304
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
With Florida just now flipping blue.

Brutal.
As I've said all along.

Two men will enter. One man will leave.

But all this goes down the drain depending on turnout. If Obama delivers he wins.

BTW, I just ran the numbers on my "not-nearly-as-cool-as-Nate-Silver-but-so-what" modeling program of the polls and it shows:

Obama: 49.33, Romney: 48.94.

Close in the national vote, but whoever wins is going to win big in the electoral vote as I've said for the last week...
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Old 11-06-2012, 12:34 AM   #1305
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Go find my post on the DM Register. Seriously, its garbage.
Your post is garbage? I can read that kind of stuff from you here.
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