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Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-06-2012, 12:53 AM   #1306
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Old 11-06-2012, 02:50 AM   #1307
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
With Florida just now flipping blue.

Brutal.
Latinos baby I think people are really pissed off about the voter suppression from Scott

If true, that's checkmate.
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Old 11-06-2012, 05:10 AM   #1308
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Latinos baby I think people are really pissed off about the voter suppression from Scott

If true, that's checkmate.
If it's true that Romney wins a shocker in New York, that's game, set, and match!!!
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Old 11-06-2012, 06:32 AM   #1309
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
If it's true that Romney wins a shocker in New York, that's game, set, and match!!!




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Old 11-06-2012, 06:58 AM   #1310
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The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 91.6% of the time with an average of 314.6 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.9-48.3 or a 2.6 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 52.5% Obama
North Carolina 73.0% Romney
Virginia 80.7% Obama
Colorado 81.0% Obama
Iowa 85.7% Obama
New Hampshire 85.8% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 80%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%
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Old 11-06-2012, 07:04 AM   #1311
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Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61 View Post
If Nate Silver is wrong, there's a hell of a lot of other people wrong including most every pollster firm. Monday national polls had Obama ahead in 8 of 12 while Romney was ahead in only 2 with 2 ties. All 12 polls were trending Obama.

Intrade has the odds at 70.9%. RCP in their no lean chart gives Obama 303 EC.
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Old 11-06-2012, 07:50 AM   #1312
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Decent synopsis by Nate today. Here's the end of it:

Quote:
But Mr. Romney’s chances of winning the Electoral College have slipped, and are now only about 8 percent according to the forecast model — down from about 30 percent 10 days ago.

The most notable recent case of a candidate substantially beating his polls on Election Day came in 1980, when national surveys had Ronald Reagan only two or three points ahead of Jimmy Carter, and he won in a landslide instead. That year is not comparable to this one in many respects: the economy is much better now, there is not a major third-party candidate in the race, and Mr. Obama’s approval ratings are about 50 percent rather than 35 percent for Mr. Carter. And in 1980, Mr. Reagan had late momentum following the presidential debate that year, whereas this year the momentum seems to favor Mr. Obama.

All of this leaves Mr. Romney drawing to an inside straight. I hope you’ll excuse the cliché, but it’s appropriate here: in poker, making an inside straight requires you to catch one of 4 cards out of 48 remaining in the deck, the chances of which are about 8 percent. Those are now about Mr. Romney’s chances of winning the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast.

As any poker player knows, those 8 percent chances do come up once in a while. If it happens this year, then a lot of polling firms will have to re-examine their assumptions — and we will have to re-examine ours about how trustworthy the polls are. But the odds are that Mr. Obama will win another term.
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Old 11-06-2012, 08:10 AM   #1313
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Why the hell even have an election? I think people are putting to much into polls in an attempt to try to influence voter turnout. "Hey, it's over so don't even bother voting for the guy with 8% chance". To use a nice sports analogy.. "But that's why they play the game".
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Old 11-06-2012, 08:22 AM   #1314
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Originally Posted by Slick View Post
Why the hell even have an election? I think people are putting to much into polls in an attempt to try to influence voter turnout. "Hey, it's over so don't even bother voting for the guy with 8% chance". To use a nice sports analogy.. "But that's why they play the game".
Wouldn't this also influence people not to bother voting for Obama?

Polls have always played a roll leading up to an election. I remember in 2004 when a lot of Dems were in the same position the Mitt voters are in now.
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Old 11-06-2012, 08:27 AM   #1315
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Originally Posted by jiveturkey View Post
Wouldn't this also influence people not to bother voting for Obama?

Polls have always played a roll leading up to an election. I remember in 2004 when a lot of Dems were in the same position the Mitt voters are in now.
People like to be on winning bandwagons.
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Old 11-06-2012, 08:28 AM   #1316
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
People like to be on winning bandwagons.
Exactly.
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Old 11-06-2012, 08:29 AM   #1317
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Originally Posted by jiveturkey View Post
Wouldn't this also influence people not to bother voting for Obama?

Polls have always played a roll leading up to an election. I remember in 2004 when a lot of Dems were in the same position the Mitt voters are in now.
Really? It's been awhile, but I don't remember Bush getting a 92% chance of winning from anyone.
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Old 11-06-2012, 08:32 AM   #1318
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
People like to be on winning bandwagons.
Thus the all-out, full-court press from RWNJs and talk radio to try to convince voters of Romney's "momentum"....and their attempt to discredit the majority of credible polling that portrayed their candidate as being behind. Not saying I blame them, but it's the biggest reason for the "divided" opinions over polling...Republicans plugging their ears, saying "Nah-nah-nah-nah-nah-nah! We can't hear you!"
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Old 11-06-2012, 08:37 AM   #1319
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Thus the all-out, full-court press from RWNJs and talk radio to try to convince voters of Romney's "momentum"....and their attempt to discredit the majority of credible polling that portrayed their candidate as being behind. Not saying I blame them, but it's the biggest reason for the "divided" opinions over polling...Republicans plugging their ears, saying "Nah-nah-nah-nah-nah-nah! We can't hear you!"
Speak of the devil.
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Old 11-06-2012, 08:41 AM   #1320
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"Nah-nah-nah-nah-nah-nah! We can't hear you!"
sounds like your students...
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