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Old 08-07-2012, 08:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 10:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:19 AM   #1351
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 91.6% of the time with an average of 314.6 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.9-48.3 or a 2.6 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 52.5% Obama
North Carolina 73.0% Romney
Virginia 80.7% Obama
Colorado 81.0% Obama
Iowa 85.7% Obama
New Hampshire 85.8% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 80%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Now
Quote:
Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%
How did this trend to Romney all of a sudden? there hasn't been an update trending this way in a long time? FL is almost 50/50 again...
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:21 AM   #1352
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If Ohio is considered "safe Obama" then there really is no trend to Romney.

I'm not sure how it could be considered 'safe' if the early tracking numbers related to voter turnout and party identification are true, but if taken at face value, there's certainly a disconnect.
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:21 AM   #1353
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Howard Dean: "The president is going to win this if we have a fair election."

Howard Dean: "The only way [the president] can lose is if people are prevented from casting their votes."

Good sign for the GOP...
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:23 AM   #1354
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Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
It's funny how the new "Obama is inevitable" meme from the campaign is that the leads in the states among early voters is insurmountable. For those who don't pay attention, the whole "Obama cannot be beat" is a clever part of their overall strategy to make him seem like a fait accompli. Given that no one knows who the early voters are and if they are moving election day voters to turn-out early or not remains to be seen.
And if that doesn't work get a few black panthers to hang around the polls
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:37 AM   #1355
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
and?
And you wonder why folks have a hard time taking you seriously?
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:48 AM   #1356
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter View Post
And you wonder why folks have a hard time taking you seriously?
As I sated previously, I don't know where he gets his infor and that I am posting this for fun. You would know that had you actually read.
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:51 AM   #1357
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Why, would a cocky narcissist like Obama, be crying at a rally in Iowa if he were listening to Nate Silver?
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:52 AM   #1358
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Did he cry at half empty stadiums in 2008?

Nope, he was going to lower the sea levels. New Jersey and Queens sends their love.
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:08 PM   #1359
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by carlos3652 View Post
This morning


Now


How did this trend to Romney all of a sudden? there hasn't been an update trending this way in a long time? FL is almost 50/50 again...
I stated when it first happened that part of the model is that it recognizes that candidates will trend up and down up to the election. 538 has 2 models posted. They have a model based upon the vote if it were cast today, called the now cast, and the other which is called the Nov. 6 forecast. The now cast has always been more optimistic for Obama. There is now no difference in those because the election is upon us.
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:35 PM   #1360
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The early vote advantage in OH that the polls said was 30+ points towards Obama?

Final numbers by party break according to AP - DEM: 55, GOP 44 - 11-point Dem Advantage.

FWIW.
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:46 PM   #1361
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Colorado early voting is GOP +3 vs. DEM +2 in 2008.

Obama won INDs +8 in 2008. He's losing them in the most recent poll by 6.

In the pre-election polls Obama was cited as winning the early vote by +3, while Romney won the day of election vote by +5 according to Denver Post (the only recent poll I could find that provided such info).
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:48 PM   #1362
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Early Exit Polls coming in two hours...

Get ready for a surprise...
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:49 PM   #1363
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
Early Exit Polls coming in two hours...

Get ready for a surprise...
People aren't complete dumbasses?
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:50 PM   #1364
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
It's funny how the new "Obama is inevitable" meme from the campaign is that the leads in the states among early voters is insurmountable. For those who don't pay attention, the whole "Obama cannot be beat" is a clever part of their overall strategy to make him seem like a fait accompli. Given that no one knows who the early voters are and if they are moving election day voters to turn-out early or not remains to be seen.

It is the only talking point the Dems have this morning. There is no way Romney can win because we have such a big lead. Was funny watching Stephanie Cutter being asked how big it was exactly and all she could say was "big." How big, what are the exact numbers? "Big."
I don't know how that stuff plays in reality. If one side says, "We got this" in order to discourage the other side from bothering to vote, doesn't it also discourage their own side who might think, "I don't need to vote, we've already wrapped this up"?
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:50 PM   #1365
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
Early Exit Polls coming in two hours...

Get ready for a surprise...
Hopefully a good surprise...it does seem that some of these early voting numbers are not favorable for Obama.

Guess we will know in a few hours!

I am putting some chili in the crock pot and getting ready to settle in for a political geekfest tonight.
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