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Old 08-07-2012, 08:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 10:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:52 PM   #1366
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
Early Exit Polls coming in two hours...

Get ready for a surprise...
The surprise will be if they if come close matching the final results.
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:55 PM   #1367
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
I don't know how that stuff plays in reality. If one side says, "We got this" in order to discourage the other side from bothering to vote, doesn't it also discourage their own side who might think, "I don't need to vote, we've already wrapped this up"?
If they say the opposite then their voters will be discouraged and not vote. The best answer is to never concede the election beforehand or you could be routed.
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:58 PM   #1368
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Quote:
Originally Posted by carlos3652 View Post
This morning


Now


How did this trend to Romney all of a sudden? there hasn't been an update trending this way in a long time? FL is almost 50/50 again...
There were 3 polls in Florida on Monday. While two of three did show a trend towards Obama, none of them showed him overtaking Romney. It shows there is no more time to make up the difference.
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Old 11-06-2012, 02:01 PM   #1369
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
I don't know how that stuff plays in reality. If one side says, "We got this" in order to discourage the other side from bothering to vote, doesn't it also discourage their own side who might think, "I don't need to vote, we've already wrapped this up"?
People tend to still vote if their guy is winning. For example, I would expect that, from a percentage standpoint, a Republican in Kansas would be more likely to vote than a Democrat.
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Old 11-06-2012, 02:03 PM   #1370
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Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
Early Exit Polls coming in two hours...

Get ready for a surprise...
****ing tease.
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Old 11-06-2012, 02:05 PM   #1371
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
I don't know how that stuff plays in reality. If one side says, "We got this" in order to discourage the other side from bothering to vote, doesn't it also discourage their own side who might think, "I don't need to vote, we've already wrapped this up"?
Let's say you're an alum from some small NAIA school and your football team was playing a game against a university in Kansas. I think it would be a lot more attractive to go watch them beat up KU than see them get curb stomped in Manhattan.
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Old 11-06-2012, 02:12 PM   #1372
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Let's say you're an alum from some small NAIA school and your football team was playing a game against a university in Kansas. I think it would be a lot more attractive to go watch them beat up KU than see them get curb stomped in Manhattan.
I see what you did there.
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Colon is 0.7 WAR or 5M in value. He makes 500k. Getting pretty close, and since he's producing war each of the next 4 years of club control, he's fair value for Upton straight up. More than fair actually.
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Old 11-06-2012, 02:19 PM   #1373
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
Early Exit Polls coming in two hours...

Get ready for a surprise...
Cool looking forward to seeing it. I always like surprises.
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Old 11-06-2012, 02:23 PM   #1374
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Let's say you're an alum from some small NAIA school and your football team was playing a game against a university in Kansas. I think it would be a lot more attractive to go watch them beat up KU than see them get curb stomped in Manhattan.
Sadly - As a NAIA alum, I would go to both, even though we would lose to both of those KS teams by 50+
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Old 11-06-2012, 04:09 PM   #1375
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
Early Exit Polls coming in two hours...

Get ready for a surprise...
Remember the exit polls had Kerry with a big lead over Bush. Just saying.
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Old 11-06-2012, 04:12 PM   #1376
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Remember the exit polls had Kerry with a big lead over Bush. Just saying.
The only thing interesting to me about exit polls are the demographics. How did X group vote.

By the time state polls close maybe the full exit in that state should be more accurate, but the leaked early exits (if any) always lack a chunk of republicans getting off work.
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Old 11-06-2012, 04:13 PM   #1377
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Nate Silver Wrong @NateSilverwrong
Heavy GOP precincts have 45 or more min wait, Palm Beach quiet
WTF is this idiot? Palm Beach is where some of the richest people in the USA live. One of the deepest red cities in america. What a moron.
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Old 11-06-2012, 04:15 PM   #1378
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Quote:
Originally Posted by carlos3652 View Post
This morning


Now


How did this trend to Romney all of a sudden? there hasn't been an update trending this way in a long time? FL is almost 50/50 again...
They are saying around here the general consensus is Latinos and their leadership get out the vote campaigns up in north and central Florida. Supposely are going 80/20 Obama.
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Old 11-06-2012, 04:18 PM   #1379
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Old 11-06-2012, 04:23 PM   #1380
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November 6, 2012, 1:43 am1562 Comments
Nov. 5: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds

Mitt Romney has always had difficulty drawing a winning Electoral College hand. Even during his best period of polling, in the week or two after the first presidential debate in Denver, he never quite pulled ahead in the polling averages in Ohio and other states that would allow him to secure 270 electoral votes.


But the most recent set of polls suggest another problem for Mr. Romney, whose momentum in the polls stalled out in mid-October. Instead, it is President Obama who is making gains.


Among 12 national polls published on Monday, Mr. Obama led by an average of 1.6 percentage points. Perhaps more important is the trend in the surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained 1.5 percentage points from the prior edition of the same polls, improving his standing in nine of the surveys while losing ground in just one.

Because these surveys had large sample sizes, the trend is both statistically and practically meaningful. Whether because of Hurricane Sandy, the relatively good economic news of late, or other factors, Mr. Obama appears to have gained ground in the closing days of the race.
Read more…
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