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Old 08-07-2012, 08:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 10:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-06-2012, 04:30 PM   #1381
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They are saying around here the general consensus is Latinos and their leadership get out the vote campaigns up in north and central Florida. Supposely are going 80/20 Obama.
Also a lot of people are blaming the reduction of early voting days. It really pissed people off state wide. We already had huge waits to vote. It was a blatant attempt to make it harder to vote. It made people more determined to vote. Especially the black community. They saw it as a one man, a Republican governor attempting to make it harder for them to vote based on who they probably will vote for.
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Old 11-06-2012, 04:37 PM   #1382
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Obama takes VA and the evening will end early. Have to see it to believe tho.
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Old 11-06-2012, 04:43 PM   #1383
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Obama takes VA and the evening will end early. Have to see it to believe tho.
There is no easy path to 270 for Romney without Florida, Ohio and Virgina. We should know early which way it will eventually turn out.
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Old 11-06-2012, 04:44 PM   #1384
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There is no easy path to 270 for Romney without Florida, Ohio and Virgina. We should know early which way it will eventually turn out.
OTOH, if Romney wins VA and FL, it would be a tough road....but a long night to sort it out.
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Old 11-06-2012, 04:56 PM   #1385
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OTOH, if Romney wins VA and FL, it would be a tough road....but a long night to sort it out.
Romney has to have Florida and Virgina.
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Old 11-06-2012, 05:14 PM   #1386
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Things are looking very badly for the Ron Paul campaign.
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Old 11-06-2012, 05:14 PM   #1387
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Things are looking very badly for the Ron Paul campaign.
His supporters are going to come out strong and may surprise you.

/BEP
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Old 11-06-2012, 08:31 PM   #1388
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Looks like Silver knew what he was talking about. Called the race in June.
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Old 11-06-2012, 08:44 PM   #1389
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Looks like Silver knew what he was talking about. Called the race in June.
Na, he's just a liberal dipshit.
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Old 11-06-2012, 08:53 PM   #1390
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:14 PM   #1391
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Every poll and every non-Republican pundit and even some Republican pundits are giving Iowa to Obama. You still think Iowa is a lock for Romney.
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Originally Posted by Hoover View Post
Yep.
Find a new career, pompous windbag.
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:19 PM   #1392
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Find a new career, pompous windbag.
Hoover isn't pompous at all. He just shared his opinion. He's a good guy.
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:23 PM   #1393
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Hoover isn't pompous at all. He just shared his opinion. He's a good guy.
Hoover is a better person than cosmo, that much is for sure.
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:38 PM   #1394
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Moral of the story for republicans: the polls aren't "skewed", especially at the state level. (national polls can sometimes be off a bit more) Polling methodology has advanced a lot from 1980, and Dems do not answer the phone more often than Republicans. Complaining that a poll is D+7 or whatever and wanting to re-weight by party is stupid. Rasmussen Reports (which does party re-weighting and also does not poll cell phones) is flawed. Math and large sample sizes don't lie, if you are losing, you are losing.

And they'll continue to lose as long as they adopt these toxic socially-conservative positions.
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:40 PM   #1395
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Any tallies of what percentage he got right? It looks like a vast majority of them, but I'm too lazy to add it up.
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