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Old 08-07-2012, 08:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
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538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 10:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:42 PM   #1396
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaFace View Post
Any tallies of what percentage he got right? It looks like a vast majority of them, but I'm too lazy to add it up.
45 for 45 so far.
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:43 PM   #1397
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaFace View Post
Any tallies of what percentage he got right? It looks like a vast majority of them, but I'm too lazy to add it up.
So far he's 46/46 on the states. At worst he'll probably be 48/50.
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:46 PM   #1398
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It's likely going to come down to Florida whether it's 50/50, but he had that as a virtual deadlock anyway.
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:47 PM   #1399
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yeah, that silver guy don't know shit...

romney won...
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:49 PM   #1400
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Its now looking like 538 will be a perfect 50 out of 50. More votes came in for VA and FL, there isn't much left to count and Obama's got a decent lead.
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:50 PM   #1401
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
Find a new career, pompous windbag.
Hoover is a good guy. He just let his partisan views cloud his judgment on the Iowa turnout. We all get like that at times.
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:52 PM   #1402
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Hoover is a good guy. He just let his partisan views cloud his judgment on the Iowa turnout. We all get like that at times.
He's a Republican pollster and acts like a partisan dick whenever he can.

Cry, cry, cry, "Hoover".
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:54 PM   #1403
BigRedChief BigRedChief is offline
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Originally Posted by whoman69 View Post
There were 3 polls in Florida on Monday. While two of three did show a trend towards Obama, none of them showed him overtaking Romney. It shows there is no more time to make up the difference.
People were pissed off at the Republican govenor trying to make it so hard for them to vote. Backfired big time.
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:56 PM   #1404
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OK, let's recap:

Nate Silver hit a grand slam, pretty much dead ****ing on. Rasmussen, instead of being some solitary genius, is discredited, and his methodology of weighting polls with party affiliation is clearly flawed. Pretty much exactly what I suspected as far as polls go.

Now someone just needs to start a website called www.natesilverwaswrongwaswrong.com.
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:01 PM   #1405
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I think Rasmussen is dead without a huge infusion of income. His polling methods (robo calls and internet polls) are cheap, but ineffective in modern America. He needs to completely revamp his methods and it is going to cost some money to make his polls more representative.
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:01 PM   #1406
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What blows me away is how heavily the tea party is costing the Republicans politically. No less than four senate seats were cocked up by tea partiers primarying out the moderates, and nominating conservative hardliners, who promptly get their asses handed to them in the general.

Lindsay Graham and Dick Lugar would still be senators if it wasn't for the tea party sticking their political dick in every primary hole they could find.
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:03 PM   #1407
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReynardMuldrake View Post
What blows me away is how heavily the tea party is costing the Republicans politically. No less than four senate seats were cocked up by tea partiers primarying out the moderates, and nominating conservative hardliners, who promptly get their asses handed to them in the general.

Lindsay Graham and Dick Lugar would still be senators if it wasn't for the tea party sticking their political dick in every primary hole they could find.
Graham still is. He's a Tea Party boy.
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:06 PM   #1408
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WTF is happening in North Dakota? Was that supposed to be close?
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:08 PM   #1409
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Literature View Post
Graham still is. He's a Tea Party boy.
Shit, I thought I read somewhere he got primaried. Who's the other Republican who that happened to? I must be thinking of someone else.
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Old 11-06-2012, 11:08 PM   #1410
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Nate.

Silver.

Owns.
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