Home Mail MemberMap Chat (0) Wallpapers
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > The Royal Lounge > D.C.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-07-2012, 07:21 PM  
whoman69 whoman69 is offline
The Master
 
whoman69's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Marion, IA
Casino cash: $5000
538

The latest 538 simulations have Obama winning 90.9% of the time with an average of 313.0 EC. The popular vote is seen as 50.8-48.3 or a 2.5 point lead for Obama.

The closest state contests are:
Florida 50.3% Obama
North Carolina 74.4% Romney
Virginia 79.4% Obama
Colorado 79.7% Obama
Iowa 84.3% Obama
New Hampshire 84.6% Obama

The following battleground states are now considered safe Obama meaning more than a 90% probability:
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Nevada
Ohio

Obama has 303 EC at least 79%
Obama has 332 EC at least 50%

Last edited by whoman69; 11-06-2012 at 09:58 AM.. Reason: latest update
Posts: 23,081
whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.whoman69 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2012, 10:15 PM   #1411
KC_Connection KC_Connection is offline
MVP
 
KC_Connection's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2006
Casino cash: $5817
Colorado has gone blue. Three more to perfection for Silver.
Posts: 21,448
KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2012, 10:16 PM   #1412
dirk digler dirk digler is offline
Please squeeze
 
dirk digler's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Clinton, MO
Casino cash: $8685
NS was pretty much perfect while patteeu and the doubters were wrong. Shocking that math wins out
Posts: 48,682
dirk digler has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.dirk digler has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.dirk digler has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.dirk digler has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.dirk digler has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.dirk digler has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.dirk digler has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.dirk digler has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.dirk digler has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.dirk digler has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.dirk digler has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2012, 10:16 PM   #1413
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $13611
So he called 50 out of 51 in 2008.

He'll be somewhere between 49/51 to 51/51 in 2012.

This suggest that the uncertainties that he assigns to each state race are too large at least in the final days of the race. Given the odds of each race, he should have missed more of them if the odds were correct.

In other words, when he says 20% chance of rain, it really rains only about 5% of the time.
Posts: 31,896
cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2012, 10:18 PM   #1414
BigRedChief BigRedChief is offline
Brainwashed
 
BigRedChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Swims with fishes
Casino cash: $14337
VARSITY
Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
NS was pretty much perfect while patteeu and the doubters were wrong. Shocking that math wins out
It's just arithmetic
/Clinton
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Simply Red View Post
WHAT DID I SAY, HUH?!?!?! TELL ME AGAIN?!?! - WHO HAD FAITH IN YOUR TEAM?!?!? WHAT'S MY MOTHER****IN NAME!?!?!
Posts: 44,319
BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.BigRedChief is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2012, 10:27 PM   #1415
KC_Connection KC_Connection is offline
MVP
 
KC_Connection's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2006
Casino cash: $5817
Math wins. Willful ignorance loses.
Posts: 21,448
KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2012, 10:28 PM   #1416
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
Band
 
DaneMcCloud's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: The 'Wood
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by KC_Connection View Post
Math wins. Willful ignorance loses.
Rape is God's Will
Posts: 48,886
DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2012, 10:29 PM   #1417
KC_Connection KC_Connection is offline
MVP
 
KC_Connection's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2006
Casino cash: $5817
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61 View Post
Interesting, this website no longer exists.
Posts: 21,448
KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.KC_Connection Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2012, 10:53 PM   #1418
FD FD is offline
Veteran
 
FD's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Los Angeles
Casino cash: $6847
Math isn't a lie???
__________________
Homer: [looking at watch] Two hours? Why'd they build this ghost town so far away?
Lisa: Because they discovered gold over there!
Homer: It's because they're stupid, that's why. That's why everybody does everything.
Posts: 3,581
FD 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliFD 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliFD 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliFD 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliFD 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliFD 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliFD 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliFD 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliFD 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliFD 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliFD 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitelli
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2012, 10:54 PM   #1419
ReynardMuldrake ReynardMuldrake is offline
2 Legit 2 Colquitt
 
ReynardMuldrake's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2010
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by KC_Connection View Post
Interesting, this website no longer exists.
That's funny, I was perusing it just ten minutes ago and it was still live.
__________________

"Letís be honest, the Big 12 is better than the SEC."
http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebaske...s-poy-ballot-3
Posts: 3,167
ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.ReynardMuldrake threw an interception on a screen pass.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2012, 10:54 PM   #1420
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
Band
 
DaneMcCloud's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: The 'Wood
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61 View Post
Sorry, Dude. Keep your head up.
Posts: 48,886
DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.DaneMcCloud is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2012, 10:54 PM   #1421
KC native KC native is offline
a toda madre o un desmadre
 
KC native's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Fort Worth, TX
Casino cash: $11335
MATHEMATICAL MASTURBATION/austinchief









__________________
The diameter of your knowledge is the circumference of your actions. Ras Kass

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowanian View Post
I'm just a little pussy from Iowa
Posts: 18,050
KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2012, 11:02 PM   #1422
Mr. Kotter Mr. Kotter is offline
Lookin' for the answers...
 
Mr. Kotter's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Somewhere else
Casino cash: $1632
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Romney has to have Florida and Virgina.
Prophetic words....eat it, GOP-ers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by go bowe View Post
yeah, that silver guy don't know shit...

romney won...

That's the BEST part of this....douche-bag ideologues who think they can out-smart intellectuals who stick to the facts. Heh.

Eat it, RWNJs....

Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Hoover is a good guy. He just let his partisan views cloud his judgment on the Iowa turnout. We all get like that at times.

Agreed.
__________________
Alex Smith will be better than Geno or Cassel, Alex Smith will be better than Geno or Cassel, Alex Smith will be better than Geno or Cassel, Alex Smith will be better than Geno or Cassel...

Last edited by Mr. Kotter; 11-06-2012 at 11:07 PM..
Posts: 40,009
Mr. Kotter has disabled reputation
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2012, 11:03 PM   #1423
alnorth alnorth is offline
MVP
 
alnorth's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Iowania
Casino cash: $14610
Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
So he called 50 out of 51 in 2008.

He'll be somewhere between 49/51 to 51/51 in 2012.

This suggest that the uncertainties that he assigns to each state race are too large at least in the final days of the race. Given the odds of each race, he should have missed more of them if the odds were correct.

In other words, when he says 20% chance of rain, it really rains only about 5% of the time.
yeah, if there's a flaw in the model, it might be that he is too modest. I do respect his desire to reflect the possibility of a systematic bias, but now with the 2012 results we have a lot more data points arguing that systematic bias is less likely.
__________________
<ptp> how many emo kids does it take to change a lightbulb?
<Willy> HOW MANY?!
<ptp> none they just sit in the dark and cry
Posts: 27,625
alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2012, 11:22 PM   #1424
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $13611
Intrade at 99.5% Obama.

Posts: 31,896
cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2012, 11:22 PM   #1425
cdcox cdcox is offline
www.nfl-forecast.com
 
cdcox's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2000
Casino cash: $13611
Intrade at 99.5% Obama.

Posts: 31,896
cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.cdcox has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump




All times are GMT -6. The time now is 09:34 AM.


This is a test for a client's site.
A new website that shows member-created construction site listings that need fill or have excess fill. Dirt Monkey @ https://DirtMonkey.net
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.