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Old 08-23-2012, 09:08 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is online now
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The "Beveridge Curve" predicts unemployment to recover by 2014.

I've never heard of the Beveridge Curve before, but here:



You can read about it more here, by Timothy Taylor.

Taylor writes that the Curve offers several insights to the current scenario:
  • Job openings are increasing, but the unemployment rate is not.
  • There are threey key reasons for this: "a mismatch between the skills of unemployed workers and the available jobs; incentives from extended unemployment insurance that have slowed the incentive to take available jobs; and heightened uncertainty over the future course of the economy and economic policy"
  • These three factors have a historical tendency of correcting themselves over time.
  • By early 2014, the curve will have righted itself, and unemployment will drop like a rock.
Well, here's hoping.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:13 PM   #151
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
I don't necessarily "like the guy". But I don't trust that Romney/Ryan can make any significant changes that would return unemployment to 4% and/or drastically reduce the deficit or spending.

And considering that I absolutely despise Social Conservatism, I don't have much of a choice this election year.

That said, the economy is FAR different than that of 2009 and in a vey positive manner.
Sorry that "you" was meant to be a "one".. not you in particular.

I have zero faith in Romney/Ryan.. but I don;t matter. BUSINESSES THINK they know what they'll be getting if R/R get elected. Especially if Obamacare gets shitcanned, like MOST of America wants. It's the uncertainty that is inherent in everything Obama does that is killing us.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:14 PM   #152
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post
You are a blowhard.

Obama has done nothing but enable Wall St at every chance he can get these days. Obama has been very friendly to business despite what the blowhards at CNBC and Faux say.
And your a delusion moron if you HONESTLY believe that. Again, you completely miss teh point. Businesses are AFRAID of uncertainty... Obama's policy insert a shit ton of that into the equation... starting most of all with Obamacare.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:14 PM   #153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Sorry that "you" was meant to be a "one".. not you in particular.

I have zero faith in Romney/Ryan.. but I don;t matter. BUSINESSES THINK they know what they'll be getting if R/R get elected. Especially if Obamacare gets shitcanned, like MOST of America wants. It's the uncertainty that is inherent in everything Obama does that is killing us.
The future is by definition uncertain. When are you guys going to let this canard die?
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:15 PM   #154
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Originally Posted by fan4ever View Post
Well that was enlightening...
How many more economic indicators do I need to provide?

You're being very obtuse.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:15 PM   #155
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Originally Posted by Bewbies View Post
I'm surprised people are so confident in real estate right now. Mortgage rates are at record lows, nothing is moving, and banks are just coming off a nearly year long foreclosure hiatus.

There's another wave of foreclosures coming, and if that comes when rates start climbing oh shit....
Link?

Housing is starting to recover, actually.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:15 PM   #156
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
And your a delusion moron if you HONESTLY believe that. Again, you completely miss teh point. Businesses are AFRAID of uncertainty... Obama's policy insert a shit ton of that into the equation... starting most of all with Obamacare.
Yes, more nonsense.

I thought you had specific edicts to cite.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:16 PM   #157
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Originally Posted by fan4ever View Post
Good night guys; I'll sleep better knowing we're in much better shape than my lying eyes tell me.

Feel free to read my post from CNNMoney.com about how the economy is expected to stay weak through 2014 and I'll read your analysis in the morning.
Better than bad does not equal good.

Screw your head back on.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:17 PM   #158
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post
Absolute horse shit. It's nice to see that you are going to the BEP school of anecdotes.
BTW nice job of arguing anything I said, asshole. You entire argument is.. "point to something he has done to slow the economy" "obamcare...(and I explained why)"

Your response... "rabble rabble rabble... your teh dumb!"

Great job.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:17 PM   #159
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Link?

Housing is starting to recover, actually.
That's debatable. There's a lot of bottom callers out there but there is a serious inventory overhang. With foreclosures starting back up, we probably aren't going to see much price appreciation in the near term (like 3-5 years IMO). That being said, we should be done with price declines.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:17 PM   #160
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You don't see how it's possible because you're a blind partisan dumbass.

China has a coming cash crunch because the wealthy are leaving China now,

China has painted themselves into a corner. They need us much more than we need them. If we don't buy their cheap shit (which is becoming increasingly more expensive as pay rises there), then the Chinese are ****ed.
I'll keep your non-partisan brilliance in mind as I drive around my town and see all the "for lease" signs in the storefronts of once thriving malls, shopping centers, and business parks in my city. Maybe it's Tea Partiers running around sticking those signs on windows to try and affect my thinking. Dumbass.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:18 PM   #161
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Originally Posted by Bewbies View Post
I'm surprised people are so confident in real estate right now. Mortgage rates are at record lows, nothing is moving, and banks are just coming off a nearly year long foreclosure hiatus.

There's another wave of foreclosures coming, and if that comes when rates start climbing oh shit....
Nothing is moving? Where do you live?

My brother sold his house in Lee's Summit for more than $300k in less than 30 days. One of my best friends sold a house in VEGAS for $450k in EIGHT DAYS. A house just up the street from me sold for $1.3 million in 18 days, and another went in 18 days for $949k.

I'm seeing plenty of movement in the past two months.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:19 PM   #162
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post
Yes, more nonsense.

I thought you had specific edicts to cite.
Explain to me why I should continue when you didn't address OBAMACARE .. by far the most significant factor.. You can argue that there is no solid reason for businesses to fear Obamacare or whatever other nonsense you want... the fact is they do... unfounded or not.. THAT ALONE has slowed recovery. IF you don't admit to that then you really are either delusional, ignorant or just being pigheaded for the sake of partisanship.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:19 PM   #163
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Better than bad does not equal good.

Screw your head back on.
Well hoorah for "a tiny bit better"...if that's even the case...with all that been spent, I'd like to see something beyond a "glimmer"...
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:20 PM   #164
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
BTW nice job of arguing anything I said, asshole. You entire argument is.. "point to something he has done to slow the economy" "obamcare...(and I explained why)"

Your response... "rabble rabble rabble... your teh dumb!"

Great job.
I'm not the one making unsubstantiated claims. Economic data has been improving since Obama took office. Despite all the worldwide headwinds, we still haven't slipped into negative GDP territory.

All the data backs my arguments and nothing other than "OBAMACARE IS BAD" backs yours. For someone who prides themselves on understanding numbers, you're doing a damn good job of letting your political biases completely **** up your perception of what's actually going on.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:21 PM   #165
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post
Yes, more nonsense.

I thought you had specific edicts to cite.
I can also provide a list of EPA changes that sure as hell didn't help speed things along. You can argue that they are worthwhile.. and many probably are... but they certainly slowed recovery.
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