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Old 08-23-2012, 09:08 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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The "Beveridge Curve" predicts unemployment to recover by 2014.

I've never heard of the Beveridge Curve before, but here:



You can read about it more here, by Timothy Taylor.

Taylor writes that the Curve offers several insights to the current scenario:
  • Job openings are increasing, but the unemployment rate is not.
  • There are threey key reasons for this: "a mismatch between the skills of unemployed workers and the available jobs; incentives from extended unemployment insurance that have slowed the incentive to take available jobs; and heightened uncertainty over the future course of the economy and economic policy"
  • These three factors have a historical tendency of correcting themselves over time.
  • By early 2014, the curve will have righted itself, and unemployment will drop like a rock.
Well, here's hoping.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:21 PM   #166
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Originally Posted by fan4ever View Post
Well hoorah for "a tiny bit better"...if that's even the case...with all that been spent, I'd like to see something beyond a "glimmer"...
If you had any money in the market when it fell to 6500 and left it in their until today, you'd be telling a different story.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:22 PM   #167
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Originally Posted by fan4ever View Post
I'll keep your non-partisan brilliance in mind as I drive around my town and see all the "for lease" signs in the storefronts of once thriving malls, shopping centers, and business parks in my city. Maybe it's Tea Partiers running around sticking those signs on windows to try and affect my thinking. Dumbass.
I know that what happened during the crisis may be hard for you to understand, but the bubble was in more than just housing cough commercial real estate cough.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:22 PM   #168
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
I can also provide a list of EPA changes that sure as hell didn't help speed things along. You can argue that they are worthwhile.. and many probably are... but they certainly slowed recovery.
I'll take safety over environmental disasters anytime.

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Old 08-23-2012, 11:24 PM   #169
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post
I'm not the one making unsubstantiated claims. Economic data has been improving since Obama took office. Despite all the worldwide headwinds, we still haven't slipped into negative GDP territory.

All the data backs my arguments and nothing other than "OBAMACARE IS BAD" backs yours. For someone who prides themselves on understanding numbers, you're doing a damn good job of letting your political biases completely **** up your perception of what's actually going on.
And you may want to go back and READ what I have written. I have never said there is no recovery. Of course there is. The very nature of the "crisis" to begin with dictated that recovery would happen at some point. My entire argument is that Obama has SLOWED that inevitable recovery. Obamacare, changes in EPA standards, etc etc etc have kept many businesses guessing and that is NEVER good for business. Please tell me how it is? The only leg you have to stand on is if you think these other things are WORTH THE COST. If you do, fine. But don't try to sell the idea that they didn't slow growth... no one with a lick of sense is buying.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:25 PM   #170
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Explain to me why I should continue when you didn't address OBAMACARE .. by far the most significant factor.. You can argue that there is no solid reason for businesses to fear Obamacare or whatever other nonsense you want... the fact is they do... unfounded or not.. THAT ALONE has slowed recovery. IF you don't admit to that then you really are either delusional, ignorant or just being pigheaded for the sake of partisanship.
No, I prefer to use tried and true measures to look at things rather than OMG BUSINESSES ARE SCARED OF OBAMA"

Corporate profitability is way up. When you listen to earnings calls right now, no one is citing Obamacare as a reason for ****ing anything. Faux news has infected your head.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:25 PM   #171
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
And you may want to go back and READ what I have written. I have never said there is no recovery. Of course there is. The very nature of the "crisis" to begin with dictated that recovery would happen at some point. My entire argument is that Obama has SLOWED that inevitable recovery. Obamacare, changes in EPA standards, etc etc etc have kept many businesses guessing and that is NEVER good for business. Please tell me how it is? The only leg you have to stand on is if you think these other things are WORTH THE COST. If you do, fine. But don't try to sell the idea that they didn't slow growth... no one with a lick of sense is buying.
How could Obamacare slow the recovery when 99% of it hasn't gone into effect yet?
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:26 PM   #172
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
I can also provide a list of EPA changes that sure as hell didn't help speed things along. You can argue that they are worthwhile.. and many probably are... but they certainly slowed recovery.
Are you referring to the edicts that businesses have known about for years and gotten delays on previously? Because if that's the case, and I'm pretty sure I know what you're referring to, then that's nonsense. The EPA rule changes aren't exactly brand new rules.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:27 PM   #173
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
I'll take safety over environmental disasters anytime.

As I said.. some are worthwhile and worth the economic cost. Some are just plain stupid and slowed growth with NO valid justification for their existence. But if you want to argue that you support them.. that is fine.. just don't lie to me (like others are trying to do) and pretend they don't come at an economic cost. That'd be as stupid as me claiming two wars overseas had little to no impact on the economy.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:28 PM   #174
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
And you may want to go back and READ what I have written. I have never said there is no recovery. Of course there is. The very nature of the "crisis" to begin with dictated that recovery would happen at some point. My entire argument is that Obama has SLOWED that inevitable recovery. Obamacare, changes in EPA standards, etc etc etc have kept many businesses guessing and that is NEVER good for business. Please tell me how it is? The only leg you have to stand on is if you think these other things are WORTH THE COST. If you do, fine. But don't try to sell the idea that they didn't slow growth... no one with a lick of sense is buying.
Businesses always have to guess. THE FUTURE IS BY DEFINITION UNCERTAIN.

How is that any different than with Bush senior, junior, Clinton, Carter, or any other president?
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:29 PM   #175
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
How could Obamacare slow the recovery when 99% of it hasn't gone into effect yet?
I'd like an answer to this as well.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:30 PM   #176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
As I said.. some are worthwhile and worth the economic cost. Some are just plain stupid and slowed growth with NO valid justification for their existence. But if you want to argue that you support them.. that is fine.. just don't lie to me (like others are trying to do) and pretend they don't come at an economic cost. That'd be as stupid as me claiming two wars overseas had little to no impact on the economy.
No, I'm with you. I just prefer due diligence to possible disaster. I really don't think we should be messing with the pipelines and other projects without being absolutely certain of their environmental impact.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:30 PM   #177
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fan4ever View Post
Well hoorah for "a tiny bit better"...if that's even the case...with all that been spent, I'd like to see something beyond a "glimmer"...
So you admit the economy is better now than it was in 2009.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:31 PM   #178
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Austin,

You should read Reinhardt and Rogoff's paper on financial crisises and the resulting anemic recoveries.

It's a small sample set but there are remarkable similarities across all of them.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:31 PM   #179
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post
I'd like an answer to this as well.
Hey, for the record, I'm not trying to bust his or anyone else's balls. I appreciate and enjoy the debate.

Civil discussion is a very good thing.
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Old 08-23-2012, 11:34 PM   #180
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post
I'd like an answer to this as well.
I already answered that. try reading what I wrote. Hell, try taking off your far left partisan glasses and understanding what I wrote.

Obamacare is a MASSIVE change and businesses and investors are holding back with a "wait and see" attitude .. many hoping to see it repealed. It doesn't matter if ANY of it has taken affect.. the fact that it HASN'T actually hurts the most. And don;t argue that it won;t hurt business because that doesn't matter... what matters is the perception and uncertainty. Something OBAMA has injected into our economy at a time it certainly didn't need it.
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