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Old 08-23-2012, 10:08 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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The "Beveridge Curve" predicts unemployment to recover by 2014.

I've never heard of the Beveridge Curve before, but here:



You can read about it more here, by Timothy Taylor.

Taylor writes that the Curve offers several insights to the current scenario:
  • Job openings are increasing, but the unemployment rate is not.
  • There are threey key reasons for this: "a mismatch between the skills of unemployed workers and the available jobs; incentives from extended unemployment insurance that have slowed the incentive to take available jobs; and heightened uncertainty over the future course of the economy and economic policy"
  • These three factors have a historical tendency of correcting themselves over time.
  • By early 2014, the curve will have righted itself, and unemployment will drop like a rock.
Well, here's hoping.
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Old 08-24-2012, 01:07 AM   #211
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
You aren't getting my point. The crisis and subsequent recovery are givens. Unemployment would exist no matter who or what. my point is SOLELY that Obama's policies SLOWED recovery. So yes, I think those rates are inflated due to many many factors .. ONE of which is overwhelming uncertainty.
Yes, and we're both saying that your point is unfounded.
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Old 08-24-2012, 01:07 AM   #212
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Remember the "jobs council" Obama formed?

They haven't met in 6 months.
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Old 08-24-2012, 01:08 AM   #213
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post
No you won't. Uncertainty is always present. Will an enterprise have sufficient revenues, are they entering in a good market, do they have a viable business model (cough groupon cough), etc. All of those decisions involve uncertainty. Uncertainty is key to capitalism.
Oh dear god. Don't make me parse this out. You know what I mean.. that is apples to oranges on the types of uncertainty we are talking about. Let me spell it out. "Economic Policy Uncertainty." EPU (my new short form!) is NEVER good for the economy. Economists will pretty much agree on this 99.9%
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Old 08-24-2012, 01:09 AM   #214
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post
Yes.

Presidents rarely deserve praise or blame when it comes to the economy.
Praise... NEVER. Blame? Far too often they DO deserve blame. Not as much as they get.. not by a long shot.. but they certainly can get in the way.
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Old 08-24-2012, 01:10 AM   #215
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Oh dear god. Don't make me parse this out. You know what I mean.. that is apples to oranges on the types of uncertainty we are talking about. Let me spell it out. "Economic Policy Uncertainty." EPU (my new short form!) is NEVER good for the economy. Economists will pretty much agree on this 99.9%
Just read the OP. He makes the point better than I ever could.

http://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=260983
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Old 08-24-2012, 01:11 AM   #216
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post
Yes, and we're both saying that your point is unfounded.
Gotcha. So my points are
1)Economic Policy Uncertainty is bad for the economy
2)Obama caused a great deal of this with various changes like Obamacare

You disagree on one or both? I just want us to be clear before we continue.
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Old 08-24-2012, 01:11 AM   #217
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Gotcha. So my points are
1)Economic Policy Uncertainty is bad for the economy
2)Obama caused a great deal of this with various changes like Obamacare

You disagree on one or both? I just want us to be clear before we continue.
Both.
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Old 08-24-2012, 01:12 AM   #218
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
You aren't getting my point. The crisis and subsequent recovery are givens. Unemployment would exist no matter who or what. my point is SOLELY that Obama's policies SLOWED recovery. So yes, I think those rates are inflated due to many many factors .. ONE of which is overwhelming uncertainty.
Yes, we've agreed that the environmental policy has probably hindered growth somewhat. Be we do not agree that the "threat" of Obamacare has hindered any growth.

I understand that some businesses in this ecomony are taking a "Wait And See" approach but the overwhelming majority are not.

I absolutely guarantee that an educated, motivated and smart person can get a job in this economy in under three months.

That said, do you think that Nevada, specifically Las Vegas, where unemployment is the highest in the country and dragging down the overall number, is filled with those types of candidates?
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Old 08-24-2012, 01:12 AM   #219
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KC native View Post
Just read the OP. He makes the point better than I ever could.

http://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=260983
Again.. that is just ridiculous. We are not talking about uncertainty.. we are talking about Economic Policy Uncertainty... that's just stupid to try to equate the two.
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Old 08-24-2012, 01:13 AM   #220
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If Obama's regulations and policies are not the reason why businesses are not hiring, then what is?

If, according to moonbats, "cOrpoRAte profItS arE SkY HIgh!!" and the implication by this statement is they should be hiring, then what could possibly be the reasons they are not?

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Old 08-24-2012, 01:14 AM   #221
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Again.. that is just ridiculous. We are not talking about uncertainty.. we are talking about Economic Policy Uncertainty... that's just stupid to try to equate the two.
It's the same thing. How is it any different?
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Old 08-24-2012, 01:14 AM   #222
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
Yes, we've agreed that the environmental policy has probably hindered growth somewhat. Be we do not agree that the "threat" of Obamacare has hindered any growth.

I understand that some businesses in this ecomony are taking a "Wait And See" approach but the overwhelming majority are not.

I absolutely guarantee that an educated, motivated and smart person can get a job in this economy in under three months.

That said, do you think that Nevada, specifically Las Vegas, where unemployment is the highest in the country and dragging down the overall number, is filled with those types of candidates?
Las Vegas and Cali are filled with hookers and ne'er do wells as far as I can tell! I know you aren't a ne'er do well.. so I guess the question is... what street corner ya workin tonight big boy?
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Old 08-24-2012, 01:14 AM   #223
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61 View Post
Remember the "jobs council" Obama formed?

They haven't met in 6 months.
You're kinda like the ugly cheerleader, who everyone wonders how you were chosen, in nearly every thread.

Oop, I guess, maybe, that was an insult
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Old 08-24-2012, 01:14 AM   #224
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
Yes, we've agreed that the environmental policy has probably hindered growth somewhat.
What about his energy policies? What impact, good or bad, have they had on employment and hiring?
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Old 08-24-2012, 01:15 AM   #225
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Las Vegas and Cali are filled with hookers and ne'er do wells as far as I can tell! I know you aren't a ne'er do well.. so I guess the question is... what street corner ya workin tonight big boy?
Looks like The Internet and 6th Street!
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