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Old 08-23-2012, 09:08 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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The "Beveridge Curve" predicts unemployment to recover by 2014.

I've never heard of the Beveridge Curve before, but here:



You can read about it more here, by Timothy Taylor.

Taylor writes that the Curve offers several insights to the current scenario:
  • Job openings are increasing, but the unemployment rate is not.
  • There are threey key reasons for this: "a mismatch between the skills of unemployed workers and the available jobs; incentives from extended unemployment insurance that have slowed the incentive to take available jobs; and heightened uncertainty over the future course of the economy and economic policy"
  • These three factors have a historical tendency of correcting themselves over time.
  • By early 2014, the curve will have righted itself, and unemployment will drop like a rock.
Well, here's hoping.
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Old 08-24-2012, 12:59 AM   #256
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61 View Post
Remember when gasoline was 'only' $3.05 a gallon?
Yeah, because the price of gas is dependent on the President or SOTH.

Seriously, you're ****ing dumb.
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Old 08-24-2012, 01:02 AM   #257
Comrade Crapski Comrade Crapski is offline
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
Yeah, because the price of gas is dependent on the President or SOTH.

Seriously, you're ****ing dumb.
Once again, you missed the point.

The fake outrage of Nancy when Bush was prez.
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Old 08-24-2012, 01:03 AM   #258
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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Originally Posted by Tom.Jay61 View Post
Once again, you missed the point.

The fake outrage of Nancy when Bush was prez.
It's called "Politics".

Learn to read between the lines. Both parties are full of shit.
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Old 08-24-2012, 07:31 AM   #259
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Barack Obama has led the worst recovery in any of our lifetimes. Bush didn't build that.

Furthermore, Barack Obama has shown no interest in being the slightest bit serious about the most important fiscal threat to our prosperity. He's piled debt upon us at a pace unmatched by any other President in the history of our country and he has absolutely no plan to reform the entitlement time bomb we face.

Related to that point is the fact that he's shown no interest in addressing the out of control costs of health care (which is the most important driver behind the entitlement threat). He had his chance when his party had full control of Congress and health care reform on their minds, but instead he put universal coverage (a nice thing) ahead of cost control (a necessary thing).
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Old 08-24-2012, 07:35 AM   #260
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
How could Obamacare slow the recovery when 99% of it hasn't gone into effect yet?
I don't know if anyone has answered this yet or not, but I'll address it. People and businesses have the ability to look forward and plan for the future. The fact that a particular provision hasn't gone into effect doesn't prevent a diligent planner from anticipating it's impact. And in the cases where uncertainty remains, planners will plan to protect themselves from worst case situations.
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Old 08-24-2012, 07:40 AM   #261
BucEyedPea BucEyedPea is offline
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My ex works for a major insurer, just not health insurance, and they've had briefings where their workers are told they don't yet know the full extent of Obamacare. Meanwhile, they don't know what actions they need to take. This does create uncertainty. Pelosi said it had to be passed to find out what's in it.
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Old 08-24-2012, 07:46 AM   #262
patteeu patteeu is offline
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Hey Dane,

Are you ever going to tell me why you think a prosperous nation *should* be running a deficit?
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Old 08-24-2012, 07:55 AM   #263
Comrade Crapski Comrade Crapski is offline
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
The difference is, Obama wasn't the one who hurtled us towards a Depression. He inherited that situation.
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Old 08-24-2012, 08:01 AM   #264
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
He is touting his record.

Good lord, mlyonsd.
LOL
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Old 08-24-2012, 08:36 AM   #265
KC native KC native is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
HAHAHAHAHA
EVIDENCE? You haven't shown any more evidence then I have. At least my argument has logic behind it.

Ok, now that we are clear on your ridiculous claims about uncertainty.. let me let you in on a little secret.

Guess who believes the same things I've been saying? BEN BERNANKE. I guess he doesn't know anything about the economy... he should give you a call for some lessons? You can google the papers he has written on the subject if you'd like to learn something.

Let's see who else I could site that will make your entire premise about uncertainty look as stupid as it sounds to me.

hmm, how about the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston?
Dani Rodrik? (PhD from Princeton, professor at Harvard)
How many more sources do you need?

btw.. I have been leading you down the garden path on this one... you simple can't win the uncertainty debate.. it's an established fact for the last 20 years in economic circles. (cue the Price Is Right loser music)

When you admit defeat on this one.. we can move on to point two.. whether Obama has increased uncertainty.

EDIT: BEFORE you make some claim about DEMAND being a bigger issue, yada yada.. ok, fine. it probably is... that doesn't remove uncertainty as an issue slowing growth.. it's just a deflection. What YOU need to address directly is the ACCEPTED view that uncertainty is bad for business. Going all the way back to Bernanke in 1983 this has become a known issue among economists.
Really? There is no logic to your argument. How much more do we know about the future than yesterday? Last week? Last year? What part of the future is unknowable which makes it uncertain, do you not comprehend?

But like I said earlier, you're a blowhard. You have your opinion made up before even looking at the evidence. Also, economists track records over the last 20 years isn't exactly stellar (laffer, greenspan, bernanke, mankiw, I could keep going but you get the ).
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Old 08-24-2012, 08:42 AM   #266
KC native KC native is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
HAHAHAHAHA
EVIDENCE? You haven't shown any more evidence then I have. At least my argument has logic behind it.

Ok, now that we are clear on your ridiculous claims about uncertainty.. let me let you in on a little secret.

Guess who believes the same things I've been saying? BEN BERNANKE. I guess he doesn't know anything about the economy... he should give you a call for some lessons? You can google the papers he has written on the subject if you'd like to learn something.

Let's see who else I could site that will make your entire premise about uncertainty look as stupid as it sounds to me.

hmm, how about the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston?
Dani Rodrik? (PhD from Princeton, professor at Harvard)
How many more sources do you need?

btw.. I have been leading you down the garden path on this one... you simple can't win the uncertainty debate.. it's an established fact for the last 20 years in economic circles. (cue the Price Is Right loser music)

When you admit defeat on this one.. we can move on to point two.. whether Obama has increased uncertainty.

EDIT: BEFORE you make some claim about DEMAND being a bigger issue, yada yada.. ok, fine. it probably is... that doesn't remove uncertainty as an issue slowing growth.. it's just a deflection. What YOU need to address directly is the ACCEPTED view that uncertainty is bad for business. Going all the way back to Bernanke in 1983 this has become a known issue among economists.
I almost forgot to address the evidence issue. Do I really need to post GDP and unemployment series numbers? I assumed that you were at least keeping up with and remembering accurately current and recent economic activity. I should know better than to assume.

I've also pointed you to the Reinhardt and Rogoff paper (note it's a specific work, not just name dropping as you have).
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Old 08-24-2012, 10:10 AM   #267
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Old 08-24-2012, 10:22 AM   #268
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Have you ever heard of the phrase "false dichotomy."
Wait....i thought you were supposed to say "Swing and a miss" when you don't know what else to say.

WTH???
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Old 08-24-2012, 10:28 AM   #269
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
My ex works for a major insurer, just not health insurance, and they've had briefings where their workers are told they don't yet know the full extent of Obamacare. Meanwhile, they don't know what actions they need to take. This does create uncertainty. Pelosi said it had to be passed to find out what's in it.
Which business is it again that doesn't have any uncertainty?
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As long as Jesus Christ was the president of the US and approved of it Yes.
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Old 08-24-2012, 02:11 PM   #270
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I know that what happened during the crisis may be hard for you to understand, but the bubble was in more than just housing cough commercial real estate cough.
Well if you thought about it for a minute cough you might realize my post was addressing the fact businesses, large and small, have closed their doors and those doors are STILL closed...despite the supposed easing of credit and low interest rates...it wasn't cough about real estate, but thanks, that's part of it too.
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