Home Mail MemberMap Chat (0) Wallpapers
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > The Lounge > D.C.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-23-2012, 10:08 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
Black for Palestine
 
Direckshun's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Springpatch
Casino cash: $23712
The "Beveridge Curve" predicts unemployment to recover by 2014.

I've never heard of the Beveridge Curve before, but here:



You can read about it more here, by Timothy Taylor.

Taylor writes that the Curve offers several insights to the current scenario:
  • Job openings are increasing, but the unemployment rate is not.
  • There are threey key reasons for this: "a mismatch between the skills of unemployed workers and the available jobs; incentives from extended unemployment insurance that have slowed the incentive to take available jobs; and heightened uncertainty over the future course of the economy and economic policy"
  • These three factors have a historical tendency of correcting themselves over time.
  • By early 2014, the curve will have righted itself, and unemployment will drop like a rock.
Well, here's hoping.
Posts: 46,870
Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 08-25-2012, 08:56 AM   #301
Comrade Crapski Comrade Crapski is offline
Banned
 

Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Sea of Green 23.4
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Here is your chance to walk it back and change your story. I'm sure no one will let it effect your already tenuous credibility.
at KC Rectum.
Posts: 3,833
Comrade Crapski is too fat/Omaha.Comrade Crapski is too fat/Omaha.Comrade Crapski is too fat/Omaha.Comrade Crapski is too fat/Omaha.Comrade Crapski is too fat/Omaha.Comrade Crapski is too fat/Omaha.Comrade Crapski is too fat/Omaha.Comrade Crapski is too fat/Omaha.Comrade Crapski is too fat/Omaha.Comrade Crapski is too fat/Omaha.Comrade Crapski is too fat/Omaha.
  Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2012, 12:20 PM   #302
KC native KC native is online now
a toda madre o un desmadre
 
KC native's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Fort Worth, TX
Casino cash: $16917
Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
I never claimed to be an expert. I'll defer to the half dozen professors I have quoted. I am however well versed enough to be able to understand the concepts. Something you are quickly proving you are not able to do.

AND the last paper is gonna be hard for you to say I misinterpreted since it pretty much says word for word what I have said all along. (again this is all about point #1 economic policy uncertainty limits growth... we have yet to move on to issue #2... assigning blame) Although I'm sure you'll claim to know far more then those 3 economists as well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KC native View Post
And here we are. This paper doesn't even remotely say what you think it does. Aside from the tortured and flawed model (can you say data mine until it gives the results you like), they created an INDEX based on Google News searches, forecasters variation, and stock market price action. So where in there does it show that uncertainty is limiting growth?
I guess you're not going to address your misinterpretation.
__________________
The diameter of your knowledge is the circumference of your actions. Ras Kass

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowanian View Post
I'm just a little pussy from Iowa
Posts: 18,854
KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.
  Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2012, 03:00 PM   #303
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
Black for Palestine
 
Direckshun's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Springpatch
Casino cash: $23712
Austin Chief... just, stop man. Just stop.
__________________
Posts: 46,870
Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2012, 04:43 PM   #304
AustinChief AustinChief is offline
Administrator
 
AustinChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Austin
Casino cash: $11441
Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Austin Chief... just, stop man. Just stop.
WHY? Do you want to jump in and look like as much an idiot as KCNative has? He can claim that I don't understand things but he has yet to provide a shred of evidence AND has already been proven wrong and had to LIE about his stance once already. I'll lay that out clearly in my next post. Then follow up with an article by yet another Stanford professor who would think KCNative doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground.

Let's be clear.. Direckshun.. do YOU believe that Economic Policy Uncertainty slows or limits economic growth?

TO BE CLEAR, this is separate from the #2 issue which we have yet to get to... which is whether or not Obama's policies have created said uncertainty
Posts: 15,154
AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.
  Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2012, 04:46 PM   #305
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
Black for Palestine
 
Direckshun's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Springpatch
Casino cash: $23712
Uncertainty is, of course, bad for growth.

Republican brinksmanship, not economic policies to the right of Clinton's, have created our uncertainty.
__________________
Posts: 46,870
Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2012, 04:47 PM   #306
AustinChief AustinChief is offline
Administrator
 
AustinChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Austin
Casino cash: $11441
Quote:
Originally Posted by KC native View Post
So you paid $72 to read those reports? You expect me to believe that?
Jesus you lazy prick. Use Google, all of these are available free, those links were just the top ones on google ****stick.

Quote:
Originally Posted by KC native View Post
So you don't see any problems with this model?
...
Economists are terrible forecasters (well everyone is). A model that uses this a major component is severely flawed.
...
Seriously this is what you're banking your argument on?
...
And here we are. This paper doesn't even remotely say what you think it does. Aside from the tortured and flawed model (can you say data mine until it gives the results you like), they created an INDEX based on Google News searches, forecasters variation, and stock market price action. So where in there does it show that uncertainty is limiting growth?

*No, these quotes are not in order. I'm not going back and rearranging them. They all come from your "evidence".

You're really demonstrating how "well versed" you are.
So yet again, your argument is that YOU know better then literally dozens of economists (I'm counting the many I know of who have cited this paper and give it credence)

AND please explain how the paper does NOT support my contention that uncertainty limits growth? You can't get away "YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND IT!" as your sole argument. Especially since you are now lying about this entire debate after being proven wrong once already.
Posts: 15,154
AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.
  Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2012, 04:50 PM   #307
AustinChief AustinChief is offline
Administrator
 
AustinChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Austin
Casino cash: $11441
Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Uncertainty is, of course, bad for growth.

Republican brinksmanship, not economic policies to the right of Clinton's, have created our uncertainty.
Fair enough, that is all for argument #2. Right now KCNative has been claiming the opposite and demanding proof. I have been providing proof and he now alternates between. "I didn't say that" and "you don't understand these papers" without providing a shred of evidence to back that up.

So please explain why I should "just stop"? I have yet to even address the "Obama has inserted uncertainty into the economy" debate. Are you one of the idiots on here that actually thinks KCNative has a shred of credibility on this subject? He's a ****ing investment analyst, that's the same job TWO, not one but TWO of my ex-stripper friends have.
Posts: 15,154
AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.
  Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2012, 04:53 PM   #308
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
Black for Palestine
 
Direckshun's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Springpatch
Casino cash: $23712
Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Fair enough, that is all for argument #2. Right now KCNative has been claiming the opposite and demanding proof. I have been providing proof and he now alternates between. "I didn't say that" and "you don't understand these papers" without providing a shred of evidence to back that up.

So please explain why I should give up? I have yet to even address the "Obama has inserted uncertainty into the economy" debate.
That's not been my reading of KC Native's point. But I'm not speaking for him.

He's talking, you're screaming. It makes you look a lot less smart than you are.
__________________
Posts: 46,870
Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2012, 04:56 PM   #309
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
Black for Palestine
 
Direckshun's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Springpatch
Casino cash: $23712
Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Are you one of the idiots on here that actually thinks KCNative has a shred of credibility on this subject? He's a ****ing investment analyst, that's the same job TWO, not one but TWO of my ex-stripper friends have.
This is a logical fallacy.

The profession of the individual making the argument does not affect the logic (or lack thereof) of the argument itself.

Keep your eyes on the ball, AC.
__________________
Posts: 46,870
Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2012, 05:00 PM   #310
mlyonsd mlyonsd is offline
Supporter
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Spink, SD
Casino cash: $10518
Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Republican brinksmanship, not economic policies to the right of Clinton's, have created our uncertainty.
I'd like to hear more about the logic behind this.
Posts: 25,431
mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2012, 05:04 PM   #311
AustinChief AustinChief is offline
Administrator
 
AustinChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Austin
Casino cash: $11441
Quote:
Originally Posted by KC native View Post
Generally when there is a conversation and you are discussing something the context is important. I guess your need to be a know it all jack ass is so strong that now you're falling back on this.
Here we go! You sir, are a lying douche bag. Let's take a look at the evidence. (To be fair you may not be a liar, you could just be INCREDIBLY stupid)

Quote:
Originally Posted by KC native View Post
The future is by definition uncertain. When are you guys going to let this canard die?

Businesses always have to guess. THE FUTURE IS BY DEFINITION UNCERTAIN.

Uncertainty is always present. Will an enterprise have sufficient revenues, are they entering in a good market, do they have a viable business model (cough groupon cough), etc. All of those decisions involve uncertainty. Uncertainty is key to capitalism.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Austinchief
Economic Policy Uncertainty." EPU (my new short form!) is NEVER good for the economy. Economists will pretty much agree on this 99.9%
Now here comes the kicker...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Austinchief
Gotcha. So my points are
1)Economic Policy Uncertainty is bad for the economy
2)Obama caused a great deal of this with various changes like Obamacare

You disagree on one or both? I just want us to be clear before we continue.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KC native View Post
Both.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Austinchief
Just to be ABSOLUTELY CLEAR.

KC native, you are saying that...

Economic Policy Uncertainty has no ill effect on the economy
AND
Obama's policies haven't increased uncertainty any more so then it would be under other recent presidents
Quote:
Originally Posted by KC native View Post
Yes.

Also, the really isn't any economic policy uncertainty.
AT this point I proceed to show paper after paper that proves that it is an accepted principle that uncertainty limits growth.

KCNative comes back with...

Quote:
Originally Posted by KC native View Post
JFC I never said uncertainty never limits growth.
and his argument is "context"... HOW IN THE WORLD could one not see WHEN I SPLIT IT OUT INTO TWO STATEMENTS.. what I was saying?

OK, so KCNative, what did you THINK I meant by statement #1? I clearly didn't mean economic uncertainty caused by Obama... otherwise why would I make that statement #2. Did ANYONE else here misunderstand the purpose of breaking it out into two statements and presenting it TWICE to be absolutely clear?
Posts: 15,154
AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.
  Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2012, 05:04 PM   #312
qabbaan qabbaan is offline
Veteran
 

Join Date: Jan 2012
Casino cash: $5000
Obviously, this is a thinly veiled attempt to say that Obama's anti-business policies are not having any effect on growth or employment, and should Romney take office and manage a recovery, he didn't build that.
Posts: 2,973
qabbaan would the whole thing.qabbaan would the whole thing.qabbaan would the whole thing.qabbaan would the whole thing.qabbaan would the whole thing.qabbaan would the whole thing.qabbaan would the whole thing.qabbaan would the whole thing.qabbaan would the whole thing.qabbaan would the whole thing.qabbaan would the whole thing.
  Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2012, 05:05 PM   #313
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
Black for Palestine
 
Direckshun's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Springpatch
Casino cash: $23712
Quote:
Originally Posted by mlyonsd View Post
I'd like to hear more about the logic behind this.
There's countless examples of this during the Obama administration. I think we can agree the Republican Party has moved severely to the right since January, 2009.

The debt ceiling debacle of 2011 is the perfect example of what I am referring to.
__________________
Posts: 46,870
Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2012, 05:07 PM   #314
AustinChief AustinChief is offline
Administrator
 
AustinChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Austin
Casino cash: $11441
Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
That's not been my reading of KC Native's point. But I'm not speaking for him.

He's talking, you're screaming. It makes you look a lot less smart than you are.
You "think" I'm screaming. He started with his "blowhard" comments and condescension, I simply followed suit.

Read my last post and come back and defend his point then. There are two choices, A) he is lying and walking back what he said or B)he is too stupid to follow along with what was a very clear delineation between two separate points.
Posts: 15,154
AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.
  Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2012, 05:11 PM   #315
AustinChief AustinChief is offline
Administrator
 
AustinChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Austin
Casino cash: $11441
Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
This is a logical fallacy.

The profession of the individual making the argument does not affect the logic (or lack thereof) of the argument itself.

Keep your eyes on the ball, AC.
Of course.

And yes it is just as much a fallacy for you or anyone else to assume his work experience gives his argument a shred of credibility. Yet that is what he has attempted to do in this thread instead of providing evidence or actual counter arguments. He has rested on "I work in interments so I know!" and "You just don't understand the papers!"

he hasn't actually MADE an argument except to say that my argument is wrong.. well you know.. you because and stuff. Well, that's not what he says now.. now he says that he wasn't arguing that point all along... so hell, I'm not sure what he is trying to say now.
Posts: 15,154
AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.AustinChief has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.
  Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump




All times are GMT -6. The time now is 12:35 PM.


This is a test for a client's site.
A new website that shows member-created construction site listings that need fill or have excess fill. Dirt Monkey @ https://DirtMonkey.net
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.