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Old 08-23-2012, 10:08 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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The "Beveridge Curve" predicts unemployment to recover by 2014.

I've never heard of the Beveridge Curve before, but here:



You can read about it more here, by Timothy Taylor.

Taylor writes that the Curve offers several insights to the current scenario:
  • Job openings are increasing, but the unemployment rate is not.
  • There are threey key reasons for this: "a mismatch between the skills of unemployed workers and the available jobs; incentives from extended unemployment insurance that have slowed the incentive to take available jobs; and heightened uncertainty over the future course of the economy and economic policy"
  • These three factors have a historical tendency of correcting themselves over time.
  • By early 2014, the curve will have righted itself, and unemployment will drop like a rock.
Well, here's hoping.
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Old 08-26-2012, 06:25 PM   #331
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btw KCNative has yet to address the post that clearly shows he is lying or simply can't read. I'm sure people would like to hear your explanation to why you TWICE said uncertainty does NOT limit growth and then claimed you never said that. Your context argument is just stupid given the fact I broke it out and made it abundantly clear I was talking JUST about the concept not Obama yet.
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Old 08-26-2012, 06:39 PM   #332
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I see the "new tone" is alive and well...
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Old 08-26-2012, 07:11 PM   #333
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
All those things, from the regs, to the health reform, to the energy policy, has all either originated from Republican ideas or are to the right of what Clinton pursued.

So, yeah. Since there was all that uncertainty in the Clinton era...
Shutting down the coal industry is on the right of what Clinton pursued? Do tell.
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Old 08-26-2012, 07:17 PM   #334
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Originally Posted by mlyonsd View Post
Shutting down the coal industry is on the right of what Clinton pursued? Do tell.
Oh? Obama's trying to shut down the coal industry?

Could this hyperbole be indicative of the hyperventilating the GOP has embraced for four years, leading to an uncompromising insanity that's spooked investors and created uncertainty?

I'm sure I'm wrong. I know you've got some evidence to back up the fact that Obama wants to shut down the coal industry.

I'll wait for it.
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Old 08-26-2012, 07:48 PM   #335
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Oh? Obama's trying to shut down the coal industry?

Could this hyperbole be indicative of the hyperventilating the GOP has embraced for four years, leading to an uncompromising insanity that's spooked investors and created uncertainty?

I'm sure I'm wrong. I know you've got some evidence to back up the fact that Obama wants to shut down the coal industry.

I'll wait for it.
There's ignorance, there's willful ignorance, then there's Direckshun's patented disingenuous ignorance.
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Old 08-26-2012, 07:51 PM   #336
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Originally Posted by Baby Lee View Post
There's ignorance, there's willful ignorance, then there's Direckshun's patented disingenuous ignorance.
Trademark.

He lost the patent suit to Apple this week.
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Old 08-26-2012, 07:55 PM   #337
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Trademark.

He lost the patent suit to Apple this week.
Don't make me get pedantic on the differences between patent, trademark and copyright.
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Old 08-26-2012, 08:29 PM   #338
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
So let's be absolutely CLEAR.

KCNative, you are NOW claiming that you never said or meant to say that uncertainty limits growth even though you very clearly said EXACTLY that. You instead are claiming what exactly? Because I have yet to argue point #2 about Obama's policies... all of these papers are simply there to establish the principle that uncertainty limits growth. THAT IS IT. Please explain to me why they don't. I think the disconnect here is that your reading comprehension and probable overall intelligence is keeping you from seeing the line of debate I have clearly laid out.

ALL this has been about up to now is establishing that uncertainty limits growth or is "bad". All of the papers cited either show that or show that the concept is a well accepted principle.

NOW, explain to me how I am misunderstanding these papers when that is my entire intent in posting them.

I have not at any point since breaking out the debate in to two clear concepts (#1 uncertainty limit growth and #2 Obama's policies have added to uncertainty) addressed point #2. This has all been a refutation of your inane assertion that uncertainty doesn't limit growth. So again I ask, how do these papers not help establish that fact? Please remember, I am not citing these papers as evidence to point #2 that I have yet to discuss at all.

Do I need to dumb it down any further for you?
Your papers do NOT establish the principle you claim. Now you're backing away from what you said they said (where you are completely wrong). You're just being a blind blowhard and want to argue semantics now because your evidence has been blown out the water.
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Old 08-26-2012, 08:31 PM   #339
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
btw KCNative has yet to address the post that clearly shows he is lying or simply can't read. I'm sure people would like to hear your explanation to why you TWICE said uncertainty does NOT limit growth and then claimed you never said that. Your context argument is just stupid given the fact I broke it out and made it abundantly clear I was talking JUST about the concept not Obama yet.
Yes keep hanging onto this. I've already explained to you the context that I was working within. I'm sorry if you've gone off the deep end because I embarrassed you wrt your understanding of your evidence.
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Old 08-26-2012, 08:36 PM   #340
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post
Your papers do NOT establish the principle you claim. Now you're backing away from what you said they said (where you are completely wrong). You're just being a blind blowhard and want to argue semantics now because your evidence has been blown out the water.
Seriously **** off with your attempt to tell me what I have been trying to say. I have made it clear to anyone with HALF a brain what I have been doing all along.

Please explain why I would break out each point otherwise? The point (so far) has always been to refute YOUR claim that uncertainty doesn't limit growth. The papers I quoted explicitly do just that do they not?

Please quote me where I said any of the papers were meant to establish anything else. Hell the Bernanke paper is from 1983 for ****s sake. Do you honestly think it was meant to address anything Obama is doing????

You WILL NOT get away with trying to lie about what I have been saying. It isn't my fault if you are to stupid to follow a clearly laid out line of thought. I have repeated myself over and over to make it clear for you.

I'll try to dumb down again...

Do these papers establish the principle that uncertainty limits growth? (either explicitly or implicitly)

You going to answer this one or again dodge and say "you are teh dumb and can't read" instead of making a cogent point.
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Old 08-26-2012, 08:38 PM   #341
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post
Yes keep hanging onto this. I've already explained to you the context that I was working within. I'm sorry if you've gone off the deep end because I embarrassed you wrt your understanding of your evidence.
No one with a lick of sense that reads the thread will believe this bullshit. You were proven wrong and now your being a lying sack of shit about it. OR you are just to ****ing stupid to be able to follow a line of reasoning. I couldn't have made it MORE CLEAR with my breakdown of the points.

So which is it? You are lying now or you were too dumb to follow along?
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Old 08-26-2012, 08:40 PM   #342
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Baby Lee View Post
There's ignorance, there's willful ignorance, then there's Direckshun's patented disingenuous ignorance.
Still waiting.
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Old 08-26-2012, 08:43 PM   #343
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
No one with a lick of sense that reads the thread will believe this bullshit. You were proven wrong and now your being a lying sack of shit about it. OR you are just to ****ing stupid to be able to follow a line of reasoning. I couldn't have made it MORE CLEAR with my breakdown of the points.

So which is it? You are lying now or you were too dumb to follow along?
And there it is. I'll gladly take your capitulation.

Your two biggest pieces of evidence were bunk. One included several factors outside the control of policy makers (so how does that measure uncertainty and then prove what you say it proves), and the other was the creation of an index where they modified the regression to make the INDEX peak where they thought it should peak. Neither even comes remotely close to what you say they have thus you still have not proven your first point.

Keep flailing.

Edit: Do you know what an index is? Because it doesn't seem like you do.
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Old 08-26-2012, 08:55 PM   #344
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post
And there it is. I'll gladly take your capitulation.

Your two biggest pieces of evidence were bunk. One included several factors outside the control of policy makers (so how does that measure uncertainty and then prove what you say it proves), and the other was the creation of an index where they modified the regression to make the INDEX peak where they thought it should peak. Neither even comes remotely close to what you say they have thus you still have not proven your first point.

Keep flailing.

Edit: Do you know what an index is? Because it doesn't seem like you do.
Holy crap. Well. this settles it. you are just plain too stupid to follow along.

That paper takes the principle of uncertainty being "bad" as a given. Hence why I clearly said the papers either explicitly or IMPLICITLY proved that the principle is an accepted one. Damn you are dumb.

So, let's clear things up further. Now you say uncertainty does limit growth BUT my papers don't show that concept. So somehow I got the concept right but the papers I showed to prove that point don't apply??? yet of course you have yet to show WHY they don't apply. So far your entire argument is "I know better!!!!" Nice work.. and yet I am the blowhard?
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Old 08-26-2012, 08:59 PM   #345
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Holy crap. Well. this settles it. you are just plain too stupid to follow along.

That paper takes the principle of uncertainty being "bad" as a given. Hence why I clearly said the papers either explicitly or IMPLICITLY proved that the principle is an accepted one. Damn you are dumb.

So, let's clear things up further. Now you say uncertainty does limit growth BUT my papers don't show that concept. So somehow I got the concept right but the papers I showed to prove that point don't apply??? yet of course you have yet to show WHY they don't apply. So far your entire argument is "I know better!!!!" Nice work.. and yet I am the blowhard?
Those papers prove nothing. I've pointed out several specific issues with both of them and you have flat out refused to acknowledge it. It is not a widely accepted principle as you have posited.

Yet again, you have failed to prove your first point.
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