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Old 08-23-2012, 10:08 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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The "Beveridge Curve" predicts unemployment to recover by 2014.

I've never heard of the Beveridge Curve before, but here:



You can read about it more here, by Timothy Taylor.

Taylor writes that the Curve offers several insights to the current scenario:
  • Job openings are increasing, but the unemployment rate is not.
  • There are threey key reasons for this: "a mismatch between the skills of unemployed workers and the available jobs; incentives from extended unemployment insurance that have slowed the incentive to take available jobs; and heightened uncertainty over the future course of the economy and economic policy"
  • These three factors have a historical tendency of correcting themselves over time.
  • By early 2014, the curve will have righted itself, and unemployment will drop like a rock.
Well, here's hoping.
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Old 08-26-2012, 09:02 PM   #346
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Originally Posted by Baby Lee View Post
There's ignorance, there's willful ignorance, then there's Direckshun's patented disingenuous ignorance.
He's not trying to put the coal industry out of business, he's merely trying to bankrupt it via regulation. Theres a world of nuance there.
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Old 08-26-2012, 09:08 PM   #347
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post
Those papers prove nothing. I've pointed out several specific issues with both of them and you have flat out refused to acknowledge it. It is not a widely accepted principle as you have posited.

Yet again, you have failed to prove your first point.
Wait a sec.. so now you are backtracking again? HAHAHA Awesome!

Ok so does uncertainty limit growth? Is uncertainty bad for the economy?

First you said no.. then you said yes... which is it?

btw.. Bernanke's paper proves the point and your excuse is that investment isn't irreversible. WHAT? New employee training is IRREVERSIBLE.. you don't get that money back when you fire them. There are tons of other examples. Not all investment is irreversible but a substantial part of the cost of expansion IS. If you actually READ the paper you would already understand that.

http://www.nber.org/papers/w0502.pdf?new_window=1
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Old 08-26-2012, 10:27 PM   #348
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Wait a sec.. so now you are backtracking again? HAHAHA Awesome!

Ok so does uncertainty limit growth? Is uncertainty bad for the economy?

First you said no.. then you said yes... which is it?

btw.. Bernanke's paper proves the point and your excuse is that investment isn't irreversible. WHAT? New employee training is IRREVERSIBLE.. you don't get that money back when you fire them. There are tons of other examples. Not all investment is irreversible but a substantial part of the cost of expansion IS. If you actually READ the paper you would already understand that.

http://www.nber.org/papers/w0502.pdf?new_window=1
Quote:
Two assumptions are crucial to our theory. First, we assume that
real investments are strictly irreversible. This is a reasonable description of most investments. Once a machine tool is made, for instance, it cannot be transformed into anything very unlike a machine tool without a loss of economic value that we can take to be prohibitive. This assumption does rule Out some interesting possibilities of partial reversibility, e.g., the conversion of oil—fired plants to coal; however,the model can be extended (profitably, we think) to handle such cases.The existence of second—hand markets is not an important problem for this assumption; on this point, see Part

From his paper. He offers a less than convincing proof later about how a secondary market doesn't affect this (sorry but reality puts this out to pasture).

Quote:
This paper has argued that when investment is irreversible, it will
sometimes pay agents to defer commitment of scarce investible resources in
order to await new information. Uncertainty which is potentially resolvable
over time thus exists a depressing effect on current investment. This may
help explain the short—run investment fluctuations associated with the
business cycle
.
So, even in his conclusion he doesn't say what you do. I'm not wasting my time picking apart some of the other assumptions of his model because frankly it's not necessary. He has sterilized the environment for his uncertainty theory so much that it ignores reality.

You may be impressed by his logic (which isn't bad), but the assumptions that go into the paper leave the paper with no value as to what happens in the real world.

I'm sure that yet another trouncing of what you claim won't convince you to stop believing in your "faux news uncertainty fairy", but I can try.
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Old 08-26-2012, 10:44 PM   #349
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post
From his paper. He offers a less than convincing proof later about how a secondary market doesn't affect this (sorry but reality puts this out to pasture).



So, even in his conclusion he doesn't say what you do. I'm not wasting my time picking apart some of the other assumptions of his model because frankly it's not necessary. He has sterilized the environment for his uncertainty theory so much that it ignores reality.

You may be impressed by his logic (which isn't bad), but the assumptions that go into the paper leave the paper with no value as to what happens in the real world.

I'm sure that yet another trouncing of what you claim won't convince you to stop believing in your "faux news uncertainty fairy", but I can try.
Wow. You call that a trouncing??? before I address your feeble attempt at "trouncing" let's clear things up. So you NOW are back on the "uncertainty doesn't limit growth" wagon? I have trouble keeping up.

Ok, now.. your ability to think critically and logically is obviously non-existent. Nothing you have stated disproves the concept. NOTHING. And no his conclusion does not contradict me in any way shape or form. I'm honestly beginning to think you really are too stupid to debate with. You simply aren't keeping up.

Quote:
Uncertainty which is potentially resolvable over time thus exists a depressing effect on current investment
How does this statement not EXACTLY illustrate my point.? The fact that you fail to comprehend this is mind boggling. This is both an accepted principle in economic circles AND self-evident logically. the next statement doesn't have jack shit to do with contradicting my premise all along. I can't see how it's possible for you to even make that leap except out of either total ignorance or just wishful thinking.
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Old 08-26-2012, 10:48 PM   #350
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Wow. You call that a trouncing??? before I address your feeble attempt at "trouncing" let's clear things up. So you NOW are back on the "uncertainty doesn't limit growth" wagon? I have trouble keeping up.

Ok, now.. your ability to think critically and logically is obviously non-existent. Nothing you have stated disproves the concept. NOTHING. And no his conclusion does not contradict me in any way shape or form. I'm honestly beginning to think you really are too stupid to debate with. You simply aren't keeping up.



How does this statement not EXACTLY illustrate my point.? The fact that you fail to comprehend this is mind boggling. This is both an accepted principle in economic circles AND self-evident logically. the next statement doesn't have jack shit to do with contradicting my premise all along. I can't see how it's possible for you to even make that leap except out of either total ignorance or just wishful thinking.
So you're one line just completely invalidates the passages that I selected out of your evidence?

Blowhard.
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Old 08-26-2012, 10:55 PM   #351
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post
So you're one line just completely invalidates the passages that I selected out of your evidence?

Blowhard.
yes, because the rest of your crap is crap. You are attacking BERNANKE on his assumption regarding investment irreversibility. I'll be reasonable and say that some investments are recoverable.. who cares? It doesn't change the premise unless ALL are. The fact that you can't get that is stupefying. OK what about my example of new employee training. Please tell us what secondary market there is for that. Come on rockstar.

I forgot that you are more knowledgeable then Bernanke, or Taylor or countless others who accept this principle.

We are still waiting on your third clarification on if uncertainty slows growth. No? Yes? Maybe? what you got for us this hour?
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Old 08-26-2012, 10:55 PM   #352
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Wow. You call that a trouncing??? before I address your feeble attempt at "trouncing" let's clear things up. So you NOW are back on the "uncertainty doesn't limit growth" wagon? I have trouble keeping up.

Ok, now.. your ability to think critically and logically is obviously non-existent. Nothing you have stated disproves the concept. NOTHING. And no his conclusion does not contradict me in any way shape or form. I'm honestly beginning to think you really are too stupid to debate with. You simply aren't keeping up.

How does this statement not EXACTLY illustrate my point.? The fact that you fail to comprehend this is mind boggling. This is both an accepted principle in economic circles AND self-evident logically. the next statement doesn't have jack shit to do with contradicting my premise all along. I can't see how it's possible for you to even make that leap except out of either total ignorance or just wishful thinking.
So where's your proof?

For you to prove your point, we need to be able to measure uncertainty which is obviously impossible. Without being able to measure it and quantify it's effect on growth, then you are just blaming the boogeyman.

Bernanke's sterilization of the real world with the assumptions in that paper render that paper nothing other than mental masturbation with zero ability to extrapolate it to the real world.
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Old 08-26-2012, 10:59 PM   #353
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post
So where's your proof?

For you to prove your point, we need to be able to measure uncertainty which is obviously impossible. Without being able to measure it and quantify it's effect on growth, then you are just blaming the boogeyman.

Bernanke's sterilization of the real world with the assumptions in that paper render that paper nothing other than mental masturbation with zero ability to extrapolate it to the real world.
hahaha You are pathetic. You are so completely far off from reality on this that it's astounding. You simply can't admit that you were dead wrong.. so you tried to lie about that and got called out again ... So you switch gears yet again and now it's about Bernanke, Taylor and countless others all being wrong and having flawed logic.

You sir, are not a very bright man.
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Old 08-26-2012, 10:59 PM   #354
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
yes, because the rest of your crap is crap. You are attacking BERNANKE on his assumption regarding investment irreversibility. I'll be reasonable and say that some investments are recoverable.. who cares? It doesn't change the premise unless ALL are. The fact that you can't get that is stupefying. OK what about my example of new employee training. Please tell us what secondary market there is for that. Come on rockstar.

I forgot that you are more knowledgeable then Bernanke, or Taylor or countless others who accept this principle.

We are still waiting on your third clarification on if uncertainty slows growth. No? Yes? Maybe? what you got for us this hour?
I never said I was more knowledgeable than any of those people. However, I have the ability to look at their work and evaluate two things. First is what they're actually saying (which is something that you've had difficulty with in this argument), second is whether it actually applies to the real world.

Your logical fallacy use is cute (appeal to authority is the specific one in case you're wondering). You've went from Patty and Donger impressions to BEP style posting.
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Old 08-26-2012, 11:00 PM   #355
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
hahaha You are pathetic. You are so completely far off from reality on this that it's astounding. You simply can't admit that you were dead wrong.. so you tried to lie about that and got called out again ... So you switch gears yet again and now it's about Bernanke, Taylor and countless others all being wrong and having flawed logic.

You sir, are not a very bright man.
What's funny about this whole argument is that you've been completely overly emotional about this and failed to see that you haven't proven anything and are now relying on an appeal to authority fallacy.

Hurry up, call me more names. It shows how you've proven your points.
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Old 08-26-2012, 11:05 PM   #356
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post
I never said I was more knowledgeable than any of those people. However, I have the ability to look at their work and evaluate two things. First is what they're actually saying (which is something that you've had difficulty with in this argument), second is whether it actually applies to the real world.

Your logical fallacy use is cute (appeal to authority is the specific one in case you're wondering). You've went from Patty and Donger impressions to BEP style posting.
You don't have the ability to evaluate jack shit if you honestly think the Bernanke paper doesn't establish the principle that uncertainty limits growth.

As for appealing to authority.. you are the one who begged for citations earlier on. Now that I have beaten you about the head with them, you claim that only YOU have the power to understand them! And with your magic power you have determined that I didn't understand them AND even if I did they were wrong anyway! You are amazing!

Are you this irrelevant in real life as well?
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Old 08-26-2012, 11:07 PM   #357
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
You don't have the ability to evaluate jack shit if you honestly think the Bernanke paper doesn't establish the principle that uncertainty limits growth.

As for appealing to authority.. you are the one who begged for citations earlier on. Now that I have beaten you about the head with them, you claim that only YOU have the power to understand them! And with your magic power you have determined that I didn't understand them AND even if I did they were wrong anyway! You are amazing!

Are you this irrelevant in real life as well?
Sweet more insults. Is this your proof that you've "won" the argument?

I noticed you haven't taken issue with anything that I've actually criticized the papers on.

BTW, do you know what an Index is?
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Old 08-27-2012, 11:02 AM   #358
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Oh? Obama's trying to shut down the coal industry?

Could this hyperbole be indicative of the hyperventilating the GOP has embraced for four years, leading to an uncompromising insanity that's spooked investors and created uncertainty?

I'm sure I'm wrong. I know you've got some evidence to back up the fact that Obama wants to shut down the coal industry.

I'll wait for it.
Sorry, hope you didn't stay up all night, I switched over to a a Gary Cooper movie.

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Speaking in San Francisco, candidate Obama said: "If somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can, it's just that it will bankrupt them."
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...-Coal-Industry

But I'm pretty sure you already knew this. Now I know the article is from Breitbart, but the quote is from Obama.

His intentions are very clear.
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Old 08-27-2012, 12:04 PM   #359
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Oh? Obama's trying to shut down the coal industry?

Could this hyperbole be indicative of the hyperventilating the GOP has embraced for four years, leading to an uncompromising insanity that's spooked investors and created uncertainty?

I'm sure I'm wrong. I know you've got some evidence to back up the fact that Obama wants to shut down the coal industry.

I'll wait for it.
Not a good look.
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Old 08-27-2012, 01:55 PM   #360
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I guess I'm not going to get an answer as to why my objections to your "evidence" aren't valid.

So much for your critical inquiry skills
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