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Old 09-07-2012, 11:31 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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I'm pretty sure this is actually the most important election in my lifetime.

Forum's pretty slow today. Allow me to speed things up with a super-wide view of the current political landscape.

You can thank me later.

I never like the idea of saying "this is the most important election of my lifetime" because it feels to hyperbolic. The only time I actually felt that way was during 2004 in the middle of the Bush presidency, but the Bush presidency gave way to the Obama administration, which is starting to unwind a bunch of the things I considered the Bush administration to have screwed up (the wars, the recession, the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, Medicare's financial unsustainability). So it's pretty clear I overreacted in 2004. If only I had been a ChiefsPlanet poster then so you all could mock me for it.

All the other elections just seemed to be very important, because you can do a lot of things in 4 years when you've got the White House on your side.

The reason I think this election is so important, however, is because I don't think this election is about the next four years. I think the next decade of policy rests on this election's shoulders.

Obama was and is a game changer, politically. He represents the nation's fresh breath of anti-neoconservativism that the nation felt it needed in 2008 after Bush. Obama is unabashedly liberal, but incredibly charismatic and likeable (hardcore conservatives don't feel this way, but I assure you the polling has always suggested that everybody else does). The moment we elected him to was huge, as well, putting him right behind the 8 ball with the wars and the economy, a situation which clearly set him up for an extremely difficult four years.

If he is able to win reelection, it's possible that this country could face a true electoral realignment of Reagan proportions (or maybe even greater) within the next decade, the realignment that Rove so desperately wanted for Bush in 2004 but failed to achieve. I'm talking about a realignment that fundamentally changes the way the vast majority of the population views these two political parties.

I've written about this a lot on this forum, but I predict that no matter who wins the election in 2012, unemployment will drop like a rock in 2014 as the job openings/job applicant mismatches start to vanish and the pool of applicants adapt to all the job openings. Again, this is despite Obama or Romney being President.

But assume it is Obama. Then you're talking about, at the conclusion of 2016, a presidency that would have presided over a gradual but successful recovery from the worst recession in our and our parents' lifetimes, withdrawals from both wars in the Middle East, the killing of OBL, the passing and now implementation of full healthcare reform, and at least three SCOTUS judges... Even without Republican cooperation in Obama's second term, all these things would happen, with the only significant question mark being the unemployment situation, which I do believe will recover like gangbusters in a couple years.

If all these things happen, the contrast of the past two decades will be unbelievably stark in 2016: you can do it the Democratic way, like the charistmatic and successful Obama and Clinton admistrations did, and preside over successful economies and sane foreign policy, or you can do it the Republican way, like... George W. Bush.

Combine that with the demographic changes this country will be going over the next decade (Texas could genuinely become a swing state by 2020, for starters), and I believe we could be facing a realignment.

I think this would be especially likely if Hillary were to run in 2016. Barring a complete shitfit, she couldn't lose, running on the records of Obama and Clinton, who would both extensively campaign for her, giving her a 3-to-1 advantage over whomever the Republicans trot out. Thinking of what she could accomplish in the wakes of what these two Presidents have laid for her in terms of policy foundations, is mind boggling.

The Republican Party, in the face of this, would absolutely have to evolve from their current exclusivity, their current regressive tax policies, and embrace something more inclusive, more moderate, and less reactionary. More conservative, less reactionary regressive. And then you'd finally have the post-Boomer conversation about the true value of liberalism and conservativism that this nation has lost since the Vietnam war embedded the Boomer population in a decades-long culture war. This development would change the entire dynamic, and provide those weird things like "hope" and "change" that we've ridiculed for five years.

On the other hand, what if the Republicans win? Romney/Ryan '12.

Most of Obama's accomplishments would obviously be trashed. Healthcare reform would either be outright repealed, or simply not enforced and de-fanged until it could no longer accomplish much of anything. The Democratic goal of bringing back the Clinton tax rates for the wealthy would be a thing of the past; in fact, Romney and Ryan would move the offensive forward, attempting to bring their tax rates down even lower. The landmark regulations for the financial industry passed under Obama would almost certainly be neutered to the point of irrelevancy, in particular Consumer Protection.

But even more than his policies, the idea of what Obama represented would be defeated. The idea of providing more for the less fortunate, for collectivism and the social safety net, would suffer irreperable harm as Romney and Ryan get to benefit from an employment boom in 2014, something they will understandably take credit for and the public will understandably reward them for, embedding in the public psyche the idea that regressive policies somehow accounted for all of this, and cementing trickle-down economics as vindicated once and for all.

And while Ryan seems very green now, assuming Romney wins reelection, Ryan would be a powerful candidate under this philosophy in 2020 running against whomever the Democrats could put up. By then, barring any huge screwups or scandals by the Romney administration, the conversation between conservativism and liberalism would almost certainly vanish, and instead be between conservativism and libertarian regressivism.

You're talking about two radically different futures for the next decade-plus, one with generational realignment possibilities in my opinion.

All of it sparked from one election.

That's why I think this could be the most important election in our lifetimes.

Thoughts?
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Old 09-08-2012, 07:15 PM   #166
Psyko Tek Psyko Tek is offline
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True.

Which just reaffirms my thinking that people here in the D.C. subforum don't like to talk politics, they just like to talk about ideologies and support a winning team.

Very much like how a lot of ChiefsPlanet, homers mostly, doesn't actually like talking football.
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Old 09-08-2012, 07:18 PM   #167
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Nate silver has it at 76% chance today. Your party has to come up with some idea other than tax cuts weighed heavily towards the rich.
All you're doing is proving my point.

We're heading for tough times no matter who is elected. In the long run living through another 4 years of Obama just might be the thing we need to kill once and for all the entitlement society.
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Old 09-08-2012, 07:24 PM   #168
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All you're doing is proving my point.

We're heading for tough times no matter who is elected. In the long run living through another 4 years of Obama just might be the thing we need to kill once and for all the entitlement society.
As I've said if Romney wins the Dems will not let anything through the Senate as payback for all the fillibusters they did against Obama's agenda.

The only hope of anything getting done is to spread the pain around to everyone and create a bi-partisan bill that everyone hates but still votes for to spread the political fallout on everyone.
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Old 09-08-2012, 07:34 PM   #169
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As I've said if Romney wins the Dems will not let anything through the Senate as payback for all the fillibusters they did against Obama's agenda.

The only hope of anything getting done is to spread the pain around to everyone and create a bi-partisan bill that everyone hates but still votes for to spread the political fallout on everyone.
Same goes if Obama is elected. The damage Obama and the dems did from 2008-2010, followed up by the 2010 election is proof they don't have a mandate.

I agree with your second statement.
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Old 09-08-2012, 07:35 PM   #170
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Half the country? I assume you're including those on Social Security. If so, why include them in that number and who didn't see that coming?

I don't understand why the Social Security "Entitlement" is such a big shock to Republicans. We've been told since the 80's that the funds wouldn't be there when we grew older and that the money would run out long before we retired (I got my first job in 1982 and was told that then).

Now, they're demonizing Seniors for collecting the money that they paid in (along with their employer)? That is ****ed up.
Who is demonizing seniors? Democrats are trying to scare the hell out of them but other than that I'm not sure what you're talking about.
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Old 09-08-2012, 07:36 PM   #171
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As I've said if Romney wins the Dems will not let anything through the Senate as payback for all the fillibusters they did against Obama's agenda.
Huh? I can't IMAGINE the Dems holding the Senate this election. my best guess is that they drop down to 47-48 seats. (and that is including MO as a Dem win)

I also don't see the GOP losing the House... so if Romney wins, it's pretty much smooth sailing for him.
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Old 09-08-2012, 07:38 PM   #172
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Who is demonizing seniors? Democrats are trying to scare the hell out of them but other than that I'm not sure what you're talking about.
Democrats? Really? Who's calling for an end to Social Security as we know it?
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Old 09-08-2012, 07:38 PM   #173
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Huh? I can't IMAGINE the Dems holding the Senate this election. my best guess is that they drop down to 47-48 seats. (and that is including MO as a Dem win)

I also don't see the GOP losing the House... so if Romney wins, it's pretty much smooth sailing for him.
The Senate doesnt function as a simple majority anymore. Everything has to have 60 votes just to come to the floor. The R's are not getting 60 seats.
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Old 09-08-2012, 07:41 PM   #174
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Democrats? Really? Who's calling for an end to Social Security as we know it?
How is that affecting seniors?

And in case you didn't notice SS will be changed at some point. The problem is the adults are telling you about it now and the dems are hoping you're stupid.
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Old 09-08-2012, 07:43 PM   #175
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The Senate doesnt function as a simple majority anymore. Everything has to have 60 votes just to come to the floor. The R's are not getting 60 seats.
No, that's simply not the case. If it were, Obamacare would never have been shoved through. regardless, the important factor is to just get the majority these days. That way you can force votes and create massive political fallout for the other party. Why do you think Reid continues to block anything and everything? He doesn't want his party to have to be accountable for... well, anything.
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Old 09-08-2012, 07:49 PM   #176
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How is that affecting seniors?

And in case you didn't notice SS will be changed at some point. The problem is the adults are telling you about it now and the dems are hoping you're stupid.
What a bunch of bullshit.

I've never in my life counted in Social Security and know for a fact that it won't exist for me when I'm of retirement age.

But what about people NOW? My dad is a die hard Republican and is absolutely FURIOUS that he was required to pay 6.25% of his paycheck during his career (which he says is somewhere north of $300k, which his employers matched) yet there's the distinct possibility that he'll never, ever see that money.

What do you tell those people? Sorry?
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Old 09-08-2012, 07:49 PM   #177
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No, that's simply not the case. If it were, Obamacare would never have been shoved through.
The only R that voted for Obaacare was Scott Brown wasnt it?
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Why do you think Reid continues to block anything and everything? He doesn't want his party to have to be accountable for... well, anything.
And if the R's are forcing everything to have 60 votes why do you not think the Dems wont do the same exact thing the R's have done?
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Old 09-08-2012, 07:50 PM   #178
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What a bunch of bullshit.

I've never in my life counted in Social Security and know for a fact that it won't exist for me when I'm of retirement age.

But what about people NOW? My dad is a die hard Republican and is absolutely FURIOUS that he was required to pay 6.25% of his paycheck during his career (which he says is somewhere north of $300k, which his employers matched) yet there's the distinct possibility that he'll never, ever see that money.

Whatdo you tell those people? Sorry?
How old is your dad?
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Old 09-08-2012, 07:52 PM   #179
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How old is your dad?
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Old 09-08-2012, 07:58 PM   #180
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The only R that voted for Obaacare was Scott Brown wasnt it?
And if the R's are forcing everything to have 60 votes why do you not think the Dems wont do the same exact thing the R's have done?
Um, you're confused dude.

My point is that Obamacare didn't require 60 voters.. if it had, it wouldn't now be law. They "cheated" and used reconciliation to get it passed illegally. So, now that the Dems have opened that door, I expect the GOP will abuse it as well.

The R's aren't forcing anything. Reid is a complete scumbag and won;t let any bills past the front door for fear of people having to actually vote on something... anything. The GOP Senators have ZERO say in the matter. ZERO. If they gain even a simple majority, that all changes drastically.

I'm not advocating here... just laying out what will happen if the GOP gains a majority in the Senate (which I would put at about 60/40 odds right now). And of course, it would take a major miracle for them to lose the House.
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