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Old 09-07-2012, 12:31 PM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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I'm pretty sure this is actually the most important election in my lifetime.

Forum's pretty slow today. Allow me to speed things up with a super-wide view of the current political landscape.

You can thank me later.

I never like the idea of saying "this is the most important election of my lifetime" because it feels to hyperbolic. The only time I actually felt that way was during 2004 in the middle of the Bush presidency, but the Bush presidency gave way to the Obama administration, which is starting to unwind a bunch of the things I considered the Bush administration to have screwed up (the wars, the recession, the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, Medicare's financial unsustainability). So it's pretty clear I overreacted in 2004. If only I had been a ChiefsPlanet poster then so you all could mock me for it.

All the other elections just seemed to be very important, because you can do a lot of things in 4 years when you've got the White House on your side.

The reason I think this election is so important, however, is because I don't think this election is about the next four years. I think the next decade of policy rests on this election's shoulders.

Obama was and is a game changer, politically. He represents the nation's fresh breath of anti-neoconservativism that the nation felt it needed in 2008 after Bush. Obama is unabashedly liberal, but incredibly charismatic and likeable (hardcore conservatives don't feel this way, but I assure you the polling has always suggested that everybody else does). The moment we elected him to was huge, as well, putting him right behind the 8 ball with the wars and the economy, a situation which clearly set him up for an extremely difficult four years.

If he is able to win reelection, it's possible that this country could face a true electoral realignment of Reagan proportions (or maybe even greater) within the next decade, the realignment that Rove so desperately wanted for Bush in 2004 but failed to achieve. I'm talking about a realignment that fundamentally changes the way the vast majority of the population views these two political parties.

I've written about this a lot on this forum, but I predict that no matter who wins the election in 2012, unemployment will drop like a rock in 2014 as the job openings/job applicant mismatches start to vanish and the pool of applicants adapt to all the job openings. Again, this is despite Obama or Romney being President.

But assume it is Obama. Then you're talking about, at the conclusion of 2016, a presidency that would have presided over a gradual but successful recovery from the worst recession in our and our parents' lifetimes, withdrawals from both wars in the Middle East, the killing of OBL, the passing and now implementation of full healthcare reform, and at least three SCOTUS judges... Even without Republican cooperation in Obama's second term, all these things would happen, with the only significant question mark being the unemployment situation, which I do believe will recover like gangbusters in a couple years.

If all these things happen, the contrast of the past two decades will be unbelievably stark in 2016: you can do it the Democratic way, like the charistmatic and successful Obama and Clinton admistrations did, and preside over successful economies and sane foreign policy, or you can do it the Republican way, like... George W. Bush.

Combine that with the demographic changes this country will be going over the next decade (Texas could genuinely become a swing state by 2020, for starters), and I believe we could be facing a realignment.

I think this would be especially likely if Hillary were to run in 2016. Barring a complete shitfit, she couldn't lose, running on the records of Obama and Clinton, who would both extensively campaign for her, giving her a 3-to-1 advantage over whomever the Republicans trot out. Thinking of what she could accomplish in the wakes of what these two Presidents have laid for her in terms of policy foundations, is mind boggling.

The Republican Party, in the face of this, would absolutely have to evolve from their current exclusivity, their current regressive tax policies, and embrace something more inclusive, more moderate, and less reactionary. More conservative, less reactionary regressive. And then you'd finally have the post-Boomer conversation about the true value of liberalism and conservativism that this nation has lost since the Vietnam war embedded the Boomer population in a decades-long culture war. This development would change the entire dynamic, and provide those weird things like "hope" and "change" that we've ridiculed for five years.

On the other hand, what if the Republicans win? Romney/Ryan '12.

Most of Obama's accomplishments would obviously be trashed. Healthcare reform would either be outright repealed, or simply not enforced and de-fanged until it could no longer accomplish much of anything. The Democratic goal of bringing back the Clinton tax rates for the wealthy would be a thing of the past; in fact, Romney and Ryan would move the offensive forward, attempting to bring their tax rates down even lower. The landmark regulations for the financial industry passed under Obama would almost certainly be neutered to the point of irrelevancy, in particular Consumer Protection.

But even more than his policies, the idea of what Obama represented would be defeated. The idea of providing more for the less fortunate, for collectivism and the social safety net, would suffer irreperable harm as Romney and Ryan get to benefit from an employment boom in 2014, something they will understandably take credit for and the public will understandably reward them for, embedding in the public psyche the idea that regressive policies somehow accounted for all of this, and cementing trickle-down economics as vindicated once and for all.

And while Ryan seems very green now, assuming Romney wins reelection, Ryan would be a powerful candidate under this philosophy in 2020 running against whomever the Democrats could put up. By then, barring any huge screwups or scandals by the Romney administration, the conversation between conservativism and liberalism would almost certainly vanish, and instead be between conservativism and libertarian regressivism.

You're talking about two radically different futures for the next decade-plus, one with generational realignment possibilities in my opinion.

All of it sparked from one election.

That's why I think this could be the most important election in our lifetimes.

Thoughts?
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Old 09-09-2012, 05:40 PM   #211
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Revisionist history. The stock market and realestate crash occured in 2008, not 1998.
WHAT THE ****? Seriously man, there is nothing revisionist here. Yes, the crash occurred during Bush's term... but the policies that led to it were enacted long before. Bush's failure was that he didn't do anything to stop the process, but he sure as hell didn't put that process in place.

You really need to go back and look into the facts on this because you are way way way off base here.
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Old 09-09-2012, 05:48 PM   #212
Brainiac Brainiac is offline
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Revisionist history. The stock market and realestate crash occured in 2008, not 1998.
Dude, seriously, you are making yourself look very foolish and not well-informed. It was extremely well documented at the time that the credit crisis that led to the crashes was primarily caused by the loose credit policies of Fannie Mae that were implemented in the late 1990s. Barney Frank and his ilk denied it, but the evidence was overwhelming.

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thats just BS. Republicans always say we want the same tax cuts for everyone. We have a progressive tax code and loopholes favoring the powerful and rich. The benefits of a acrosss the board tax cut benefit the rich more than anyone else.
Of course they do! Those who PAY the taxes BENEFIT when tax rates are cut. It's idiotic to think otherwise, and it's idiotic to claim that it is unfair.
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Old 09-09-2012, 05:54 PM   #213
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Originally Posted by Brainiac View Post
Dude, seriously, you are making yourself look very foolish and not well-informed. It was extremely well documented at the time that the credit crisis that led to the crashes was primarily caused by the loose credit policies of Fannie Mae that were implemented in the late 1990s. Barney Frank and his ilk denied it, but the evidence was overwhelming.
This is troubling to me. BRC is a smart guy, yet somehow the Dems have sold him on this complete line of bullshit. I wonder how many other Americans are oblivious to the facts on this?
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Old 09-09-2012, 06:10 PM   #214
BucEyedPea BucEyedPea is offline
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So you're voting for Johnson eh?
He would be the best one of all for that.
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Old 09-09-2012, 06:15 PM   #215
Brainiac Brainiac is offline
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
This is troubling to me. BRC is a smart guy, yet somehow the Dems have sold him on this complete line of bullshit. I wonder how many other Americans are oblivious to the facts on this?
I agree. I consider my sister to be very smart, yet she is planning to vote for Obama, primarily because of Obamacare. I asked her how she felt about the provision in Obamacare to tax the "Cadillac" health insurance plans, and I asked her how she felt about the fact that she has own of those plans, and I asked her if she thinks it's fair to tax those plans for everyone except union members.

Her eyes got wide, and it was apparent that she was completely unaware of any of this. All she thinks about are the promises associated with Obamacare and none of the costs.

I'm pretty sure she still plans to vote for Obama. It was depressing.
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Old 09-09-2012, 06:19 PM   #216
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Originally Posted by Brainiac View Post
I agree. I consider my sister to be very smart, yet she is planning to vote for Obama, primarily because of Obamacare. I asked her how she felt about the provision in Obamacare to tax the "Cadillac" health insurance plans, and I asked her how she felt about the fact that she has own of those plans, and I asked her if she thinks it's fair to tax those plans for everyone except union members.

Her eyes got wide, and it was apparent that she was completely unaware of any of this. All she thinks about are the promises associated with Obamacare and none of the costs.

I'm pretty sure she still plans to vote for Obama. It was depressing.
That's pretty much what I see in Democrats that are not that far to the left too. They are clueless.
One who is not far from being elderly and doesn't know, per an Independent source, that it shifts the money from Medicare to the youth. It screws them. Obamanites deny this though.
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Old 09-09-2012, 06:32 PM   #217
RedNeckRaider RedNeckRaider is offline
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Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
That's pretty much what I see in Democrats that are not that far to the left too. They are clueless.
One who is not far from being elderly and doesn't know, per an Independent source, that it shifts the money from Medicare to the youth. It screws them. Obamanites deny this though.
What does it matter to you? You are going to throw your vote away~
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Old 09-09-2012, 06:39 PM   #218
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What does it matter to you? You are going to throw your vote away~
I think that after BEP has had time to get over her anger at the Republicans, she'll do the right thing.
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Old 09-09-2012, 06:42 PM   #219
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I think that after BEP has had time to get over her anger at the Republicans, she'll do the right thing.
I would hope, but she most likely will play the (I did not vote for him card) so she can continue her self impressed smarter than everyone game~
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Old 09-09-2012, 06:59 PM   #220
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No, it was not totally Bush's fault. The Dems also had a hand in the collapse through Dodd-Frank.

But if your defense is the issue was caused before Bush. He was blameless and was powerless to stop it...thats BS. Same basic line of defense that Obama has no responsibility for the current economy because all the damge was done under Bush.
My issue doesn't have anything to do with Bush. That's your issue and it's based on a lack of understanding of why we are where we are. My issue is that Romney, a brand new troubleshooter, is a better guy to manage this recovery and get us back on track than the guy who has been floundering along for the past four years focusing on all the wrong things, dividing the country so he can harvest some votes, and doing anything but run on his track record of failure.
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Old 09-09-2012, 07:01 PM   #221
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Originally Posted by Brainiac View Post
I agree. I consider my sister to be very smart, yet she is planning to vote for Obama, primarily because of Obamacare. I asked her how she felt about the provision in Obamacare to tax the "Cadillac" health insurance plans, and I asked her how she felt about the fact that she has own of those plans, and I asked her if she thinks it's fair to tax those plans for everyone except union members.

Her eyes got wide, and it was apparent that she was completely unaware of any of this. All she thinks about are the promises associated with Obamacare and none of the costs.

I'm pretty sure she still plans to vote for Obama. It was depressing.
Did you tell her that the exception for unions is for five years, or did you make it seem as if the unions are permanently exempt? Did you also tell her that there are similar benefits for other populations?

Quote:
The deal cut Thursday would raise the value of policies subject to the tax to $24,000 for families and $8,900 for individuals. Plans with significant numbers of women or older workers would receive an additional break, as would workers in high-cost states and high-risk professions. Dental and vision plans would be exempt starting in 2015. And workers with collective-bargaining agreements and government employers would be exempt until 2018, giving labor leaders time to negotiate new contracts.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...l?hpid=topnews

You might want to be fair to your own sister.
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Old 09-09-2012, 08:10 PM   #222
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Did you tell her that the exception for unions is for five years, or did you make it seem as if the unions are permanently exempt? Did you also tell her that there are similar benefits for other populations?
How does that make it any better? If you're getting screwed, at least you can take comfort that right now they "only" plan to screw you for five years?

That is an extremely weak defense of a bad policy.
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Old 09-09-2012, 08:18 PM   #223
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How does that make it any better? If you're getting screwed, at least you can take comfort that right now they "only" plan to screw you for five years?

That is an extremely weak defense of a bad policy.
I'm not defending the policy or whether five years is a reasonable amount of time for labor leaders to negotiate their contracts. I'm just saying that you seemed to stretch the truth to your sister. I don't know if you did that knowingly, but if not, you should at least get all the relevant facts before doing so.
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Old 09-09-2012, 08:50 PM   #224
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Originally Posted by Brainiac View Post
I agree. I consider my sister to be very smart, yet she is planning to vote for Obama, primarily because of Obamacare. I asked her how she felt about the provision in Obamacare to tax the "Cadillac" health insurance plans, and I asked her how she felt about the fact that she has own of those plans, and I asked her if she thinks it's fair to tax those plans for everyone except union members.
Maybe her eyes got wide because she couldnt believe you believe that BS. It was am exemption to wait until all the already signed contracts expired and it was done for a lot of other groups also. Moderate
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Old 09-09-2012, 09:10 PM   #225
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The Liberal spin here is making me dizzy. The two of you haven't invalidated anything I said. If you're not in a union and you have a very good health insurance plan, you get ****ed in the ass by Obamacare. That's why so many people bitterly oppose the plan.
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