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Old 09-09-2012, 08:20 AM  
RINGLEADER RINGLEADER is offline
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Obama Gets 4-7 Point Bounce From Convention

Depending on the survey it's pretty clear that Obama has gotten a 4-7 point bounce from his convention. Romney's bounce, which started with the naming of Paul Ryan to the ticket, was anywhere from neglible to 5. The RCP averages before the naming of Ryan were consistent around Obama +4 (getting close to Obama +5 at their peak), so it will be interesting to see how the averages go. So far it's looking like Obama will be back in that territory soon.

The first debate is all that really matters at this point. If something decisive happens Romney can recapture the momentum. Absent that, it's looking like we're on our way to four more years like the last four years, but only now we'll have Obamacare baked in.

Now, on to football...
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Old 09-09-2012, 10:30 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by mlyonsd View Post
Ryan was just on Meet the Press. Nora O'Donnell did a crack job of asking important questions like how fast he really did run a marathon.
The guy has been on the national stage for how long? a few weeks? He has consistently shown to have some issue with the truth.
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Old 09-09-2012, 10:33 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
For some reason Romney doesn't seem to understand that by making the distinctions between he and Obama less, he's making it easier for people to vote for the other guy they know (and like) better.
He is etch a sketching his way back to the middle. He has to if he wants the independents he needs to win.
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Old 09-09-2012, 10:33 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER View Post
No, he specifically mentioned these things the day John Roberts, er, the Supreme Court ruled it constitutional. I understand his political reason for saying it then, but not now. He just doesn't seem to be capable of spinning questions into answers that, while evasive, help his cause. Instead of prefacing the answer to reframe the question he writes the headline himself to be "Romney: Obamacare ain't all that bad!"

He's a terrible politician.
Ok I will take your word for it I just don't remember seeing those. It wouldn't surprise me though because I have always stated if he became POTUS I don't believe he would repeal Obamacare.

I agree with you though he is a terrible politician and that is because he has no core beliefs. He is just one big liar and flip flopper.
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Old 09-09-2012, 10:38 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
The guy has been on the national stage for how long? a few weeks? He has consistently shown to have some issue with the truth.
Ryan has been on the national stage longer than Obama so don't let facts get in your way.
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Old 09-09-2012, 10:44 AM   #20
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My belief is that no matter who wins, Obamacare won't be repealed.
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Old 09-09-2012, 10:50 AM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mlyonsd View Post
Ryan has been on the national stage longer than Obama so don't let facts get in your way.
Do you consider being in the House of Representatives being on the national stage? I really don't unless you are a leader or speaker for some time. For example Bill Young is the longest tenured Republican in the House and has served 21 terms yet I doubt anybody outside of his district knows who he is.

I think that is the point BRC was making.
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Old 09-09-2012, 11:22 AM   #22
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Gallup did have Carter up 8 points over Reagan in October. The debate changed everything.

This, combined with the $4.7 billion Romney intends to spend, is his last, best hope to get people to believe:

1) Obamacare is a terrible law that neither saves money nor provides better healthcare
2) You can't spur growth by raising taxes, as Obama has himself said
3) His tax plan is tax reform
4) That Obama's budgets lead to one place - national bankruptcy/inflation
5) Obama has nothing other than "it could be worse" to run on
6) Just because capitalism only works 95% of the time it doesn't mean it doesn't work

I could go on - back to the Chiefs...
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Old 09-09-2012, 11:27 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by BigRedChief View Post
Romeny cant beat Obama in a debate. Nada chance. Obama isnt Biden, he wont misspeak and do something really stupid. the debates are mattering less and less. Very few people have not made up the mind. And lastly, the pool of undecideds is really small.
If Obama opens his mouth, he is going to say something stupid, even if he has a teleprompter.
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Old 09-09-2012, 12:03 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aries Walker View Post
I generally ignore the polls for a week or two after the conventions.
I ignore them all

They all over sample Dems regardless of what you hear because the polls are LIB dominated and especially this election because OMarxist is in big trouble. The whole DNC convention much to my surprise put the 'knee pads' on for their base. That's not a good sign because you should already have them in your back pocket. Romney wasn't torched by OMarxist or really anybody else for that matter which was surprising and not a good sign as to what the 'real polls' say.

Conservatives and Independents hold their cards close to the vest and especially this election because it is true we are not crazy about Romney BUT we will vote because we know we can't afford to stay home THIS TIME and pout like usual when we don't like our candidate because this time IF WE DO, WE LOSE OUR COUNTRY FOR GOOD.

Our civilian political D-Day duty is Nov 6 to save our country. We will WIN because "We The People" will overwhelm the polls on Nov 6th, like our grandparents and great grandparents overwhelmed the beaches of Normandy.
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Old 09-09-2012, 12:20 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chiefshrink View Post
I ignore them all

They all over sample Dems regardless of what you hear because the polls are LIB dominated and especially this election because OMarxist is in big trouble. The whole DNC convention much to my surprise put the 'knee pads' on for their base. That's not a good sign because you should already have them in your back pocket. Romney wasn't torched by OMarxist or really anybody else for that matter which was surprising and not a good sign as to what the 'real polls' say.

Conservatives and Independents hold their cards close to the vest and especially this election because it is true we are not crazy about Romney BUT we will vote because we know we can't afford to stay home THIS TIME and pout like usual when we don't like our candidate because this time IF WE DO, WE LOSE OUR COUNTRY FOR GOOD.

Our civilian political D-Day duty is Nov 6 to save our country. We will WIN because "We The People" will overwhelm the polls on Nov 6th, like our grandparents and great grandparents overwhelmed the beaches of Normandy.
D-Day? GTFO.
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Old 09-09-2012, 12:34 PM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirk digler View Post
Do you consider being in the House of Representatives being on the national stage? I really don't unless you are a leader or speaker for some time. For example Bill Young is the longest tenured Republican in the House and has served 21 terms yet I doubt anybody outside of his district knows who he is.

I think that is the point BRC was making.
I think being Chairman of the House Budget Committee and being referred to as the intellectual leader of the Republican Party long before he was the VP candidate made Paul Ryan arguably much more well-known than guys like Bill Young.
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Old 09-09-2012, 01:00 PM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chiefshrink View Post
I ignore them all
Even if you disrespect their methods (which I don't blame you for; the system is pretty flawed), you have to admit they have a profound effect. Candidates spend their advertising dollars based on what the polls are telling them, and exit polls call an election before the votes are count (leading to that farcical back-and-forth phone calling in 2000).
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Old 09-09-2012, 03:06 PM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pittsie View Post
D-Day? GTFO.
Keep doubting 'Dittsie' !! Because "We The People" will take out your "Marxist Dem Pillboxes" that are assaulting our country on Nov 6. Count on it
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Old 09-09-2012, 03:21 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aries Walker View Post
Even if you disrespect their methods (which I don't blame you for; the system is pretty flawed), you have to admit they have a profound effect. Candidates spend their advertising dollars based on what the polls are telling them, and exit polls call an election before the votes are count (leading to that farcical back-and-forth phone calling in 2000).
Yep ! Pretty flawed and why I don't buy it. Candidates spend their $$ on 'internal polls'. Polls that you and I don't see. We see the public polls. The real contest between the campaigns is whose 'internal polls' are the most accurate and how much $$ they will spend on what their internal polls are telling them assuming they have the $$ to begin with and Romney is beginning to pull away in that battle as well
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Old 09-09-2012, 03:23 PM   #30
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Meh. After the DNC in 1988, Dukakis led Bush by 17 points.

How'd that turn out?
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