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Old 09-18-2012, 10:09 AM  
Lightrise Lightrise is offline
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Intrade has Obama at 68% sure win. We have historic campaign collapse

This thing is spiraling out of control so fast Romney's advisors cannot possibly hatch a damage control strategy. Mother Jones will drip drip drip this out toward the debate and expectations will be incredibly high. The entire country won't be tuning in to make a decision, they will be tuning in to see Mitt Romney make a fool of himself. There is simply a lack of understanding of the country on the part of Romney and this campaign.

One thing to watch, the state of Georgia! It's closer than anybody believed possible and if the establishment gives up and doesn't vote this one may make national headlines. Ohio and Virginia are definitely goners now. Florida is next and the flood waters will flow.
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Old 09-19-2012, 04:21 PM   #16
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The funny thing is, I can pick up 2 whole shares for Obama at $6.82. OTOH, I can get 40 for Mitt at $3.28. People are selling Romney as fast as they can.
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Old 09-19-2012, 10:40 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KC native View Post
Color me not surprised that you don't get Intrade. Intrade is gambling with the veneer of financial market.

You aren't trading on any intrinsic value. It is an extremely shallow market which makes it easy to manipulate.
I get InTrade just fine and have followed it for over half a decade now for politics. Market watchers know when the markets are being manipulated and clean up. It's obvious when it happens for those that follow it.

You don't follow Intrade, so let's not pretend that you know anything about it other than your own confirmation bias.
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Old 09-19-2012, 10:56 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calcountry View Post
And the derivative markets aren't manipulated?
...and has intrinsic value.

( Which I believe to be a false concept anyway because value is subjective in a market.)
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Old 09-19-2012, 11:04 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
...and has intrinsic value.

( Which I believe to be a false concept anyway because value is subjective in a market.)
I think you are confusing the philosophical definition of intrinsic with the financial one.

def, wikipedia finance
In finance, intrinsic value refers to the value of a security which is intrinsic to or contained in the security itself. It is also frequently called fundamental value. It is ordinarily calculated by summing the future income generated by the asset, and discounting it to the present value. Simply put, it is the actual value of a security as opposed to the market or book value.
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Old 09-19-2012, 11:09 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
I get InTrade just fine and have followed it for over half a decade now for politics. Market watchers know when the markets are being manipulated and clean up. It's obvious when it happens for those that follow it.

You don't follow Intrade, so let's not pretend that you know anything about it other than your own confirmation bias.
No, I don't bother with prediction markets. They are gambling.

Quote:
What is a prediction market?

Intrade is a prediction market. What is a prediction market? It's a market that allows you to make predictions on the outcome of hundreds of real-world events. Stock exchanges find the price of stocks, and futures markets find the price of commodities. Prediction markets find the probability of something happening - a predefined, uncertain future event.

Will the financial markets be up today? Will a certain candidate win the next election? Who will win the Academy Awards? If you have an opinion on what will happen then you can make a prediction on Intrade. Predict correctly and you can win real money profits.
They're not liquid.

Quote:
Who am I buying from? Who am I selling to?

Intrade is an exchange - like the New York or London stock exchanges for example. When you buy shares you are buying them from another member of Intrade. And when you sell shares, another member of the exchange is buying them from you. You do not buy shares from Intrade, and Intrade does not buy shares from you. You are always trading shares with other members of the exchange - other people who are making predictions, just like you.

It is important to remember that Intrade is a market. This means you may not always be able to get what you want. If you are looking to buy some shares, but nobody is selling, then you can't buy the shares that you want.
Both of those come straight from their website. There are no real market makers on Intrade. Like I said before prediction markets are gambling wrapped in a financial market veneer.

ALSO, @ people cleaning up. You max profit potential is $9.99 a share. If you were to try making big orders then you're going to push the market because of the limited liquidity (which is what happened in the last presidential election).

But, please tell me again how I don't know about Intrade. I think it's cute.
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Old 09-19-2012, 11:11 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by J Diddy View Post
I think you are confusing the philosophical definition of intrinsic with the financial one.

def, wikipedia finance
In finance, intrinsic value refers to the value of a security which is intrinsic to or contained in the security itself. It is also frequently called fundamental value. It is ordinarily calculated by summing the future income generated by the asset, and discounting it to the present value. Simply put, it is the actual value of a security as opposed to the market or book value.
Wasting your time. That crazy **** wouldn't know her asshole from a hole in the ground. She gets even worse when it comes to economics.

Be prepared for a made up definition as a response.
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Old 09-19-2012, 11:12 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J Diddy View Post
I think you are confusing the philosophical definition of intrinsic with the financial one.


def, wikipedia finance
In finance, intrinsic value refers to the value of a security which is intrinsic to or contained in the security itself. It is also frequently called fundamental value. It is ordinarily calculated by summing the future income generated by the asset, and discounting it to the present value. Simply put, it is the actual value of a security as opposed to the market or book value.
Nope. There's no such thing—even in finance. Value can change because markets can change.It is subjective.
I wasn't discussing philosophy either. I adhere to Austrian Economics.
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Old 09-19-2012, 11:17 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
Nope. There's no such thing—even in finance. Value can change because markets can change.It is subjective.
I wasn't discussing philosophy either. I adhere to Austrian Economics.
And there it is.

Color me psychic.
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Old 09-19-2012, 11:20 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
Nope. There's no such thing—even in finance. Value can change because markets can change.It is subjective.
I wasn't discussing philosophy either.
To be honest, I researched a bit and you were right and I apologize.
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Old 09-19-2012, 11:21 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post
And there it is.

Color me psychic.
She was right in intrinsic value vs subjective in the market front. However I replied before she added the Austrian thing, so I can't speak to it.
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Old 09-19-2012, 11:21 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by J Diddy View Post
To be honest, I researched a bit and you were right and I apologize.
Well, some people do actually believe that. Some mainstream economists even. But it's a central concept in Austrian Economics that it's a bogus idea. All value is subjective. We each do our own valuing. If no one wants an object it loses its value.
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Old 09-19-2012, 11:33 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by J Diddy View Post
She was right in intrinsic value vs subjective in the market front. However I replied before she added the Austrian thing, so I can't speak to it.
No, she's not. If you're doing discounted cash flow analysis (typical Grahm and Dodd/Buffet style) then intrinsic value isn't subjective.

Quote:
In finance, intrinsic value refers to the value of a security which is intrinsic to or contained in the security itself. It is also frequently called fundamental value. It is ordinarily calculated by summing the future income generated by the asset, and discounting it to the present value. Simply put, it is the actual value of a security as opposed to the market or book value.
Yes, it's a wiki definition but it's accurate. This is the definition of value investing.

Again, this is dependent on the type of investing your doing and the types of instruments you're trading. If you're trading derivatives then intrinsic value of an option is the difference between the strike price and the price of the asset. Note that that won't be the market price, there are a lot of other factors that go into option pricing (volatility, interest rates) but this is another case where intrinsic value isn't subjective.
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Old 09-19-2012, 11:39 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post
No, she's not. If you're doing discounted cash flow analysis (typical Grahm and Dodd/Buffet style) then intrinsic value isn't subjective.



Yes, it's a wiki definition but it's accurate. This is the definition of value investing.

Again, this is dependent on the type of investing your doing and the types of instruments you're trading. If you're trading derivatives then intrinsic value of an option is the difference between the strike price and the price of the asset. Note that that won't be the market price, there are a lot of other factors that go into option pricing (volatility, interest rates) but this is another case where intrinsic value isn't subjective.
There are two competing theories and I would have to agree with the subjective one myself. But that's why they're theories. I can buy that something's value can move up or down based on market demand. Take xbox for example. They sold like hell at a high price when they were initially introduced, but once market value declined, they lowered the price and began selling like hell again. I just can't wrap my head around the fact that something has a fixed worth that will never change regardless of the market.

I'd like to add that I don't know a damned thing about this, so I probably should bow out now.
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Old 09-19-2012, 11:47 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by J Diddy View Post
There are two competing theories and I would have to agree with the subjective one myself. But that's why they're theories. I can buy that something's value can move up or down based on market demand. Take xbox for example. They sold like hell at a high price when they were initially introduced, but once market value declined, they lowered the price and began selling like hell again. I just can't wrap my head around the fact that something has a fixed worth that will never change regardless of the market.

I'd like to add that I don't know a damned thing about this, so I probably should bow out now.
You're misunderstanding. A short and relatively simple example,

Let's say you're analyzing a steel maker. This business generates a fairly steady revenue. You would use a discounted cash flow analysis to figure out what the intrinsic value of the company is (the minimum worth of the company).

After you determine the intrinsic value of the company you would then see what it is trading at. If the market price is different than the intrinsic value that you have determined then there is either an opportunity to invest or not (whether the market price is lower or higher than the intrinsic value).

In case that was too confusing,

Quote:
Definition of 'Value Investing'
The strategy of selecting stocks that trade for less than their intrinsic values. Value investors actively seek stocks of companies that they believe the market has undervalued. They believe the market overreacts to good and bad news, resulting in stock price movements that do not correspond with the company's long-term fundamentals. The result is an opportunity for value investors to profit by buying when the price is deflated.

Typically, value investors select stocks with lower-than-average price-to-book or price-to-earnings ratios and/or high dividend yields.

Investopedia explains 'Value Investing'
The big problem for value investing is estimating intrinsic value. Remember, there is no "correct" intrinsic value. Two investors can be given the exact same information and place a different value on a company. For this reason, another central concept to value investing is that of "margin of safety". This just means that you buy at a big enough discount to allow some room for error in your estimation of value.

Also keep in mind that the very definition of value investing is subjective. Some value investors only look at present assets/earnings and don't place any value on future growth. Other value investors base strategies completely around the estimation of future growth and cash flows. Despite the different methodologies, it all comes back to trying to buy something for less than it is worth.
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Old 09-20-2012, 12:24 AM   #30
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But, please tell me again how I don't know about Intrade. I think it's cute.
You're a legend in your own mind.

You don't know shit about Intrade except what you copy and pasted tonight. You've not followed it. You've not studied it. You've only opened your hole and pretended. Anyone can see through you like a window.

No shit it's gambling - just like any market is a gamble. It blows my mind that you think you're saying something interesting or novel. It's a ****ing prediction market, not a crystal ball. It moves when the subject moves. But at the end of the day, it will have the right winner at 100%.
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