National Tracking Polls: Romney +6 in Last Week

[RINGLEADER]

Strange. I thought all of these Romney gaffes had killed his campaign.

Rasmussen Last Week: Obama: 50, Romney: 46
Rasmussen This Week: Obama: 45, Romney: 47

Gallup Last Week: Obama: 50, Romney: 43
Gallup This Week: Obama: 47, Romney: 46

Given the huge pick-ups Romney makes when Likely Voter filters are applied, I'd say the Gallup and Rasmussen numbers are probably close to, if not exactly, the same.

Let's see if Obama gets another bounce from the 47% remark (doubt it, but we'll see) and how quickly that one fades...

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

New polls out today have Obama leading Romney 48%-41% among Nascar voters. Obama is also leading among military families.

Romney is losing Nascar and military families to Obama. That should red flag Republicans.

Romney is winning among middle class families...

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81584.html

More important, in this latest set of data in the POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll, is the fact that Romney is also winning by a strong 14-point margin over Obama with middle-class families, a group of voters that is not only a majority of the American electorate, but is usually seen as the ultimate target group in any presidential election.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Romney is winning among middle class families...

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81584.html

Interesting that you would post a piece that claims that middle class families are a majority of the electorate.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Romney is winning among middle class families...

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81584.html

middle class families don't vote. I thinks its like 20-30% isn't it? And they are no longer than "average" voter.

The fact that he's ahead by 14 points in that demographic and with the economy the way it is and he's still down in the polls.......... its arithmetic.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by patteeu

LOL Nate Silver did a good job analyzing poll data for two election cycles, but he doesn't even do polls. It's far too early in his poll analysis career to hand him the title "authority of polls" IMO. I don't have anything against him, but as Obama would tell you, there are other smart people out there.

We were discussing the accuracy of polls not who's the best pollster.

The best analyzer of poll data is Nate Silver, thats just my opinion. You of course, are welcome to your own opinion and tell me how FOS I am in the next post.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by Pitt Gorilla

Interesting that you would post a piece that claims that middle class families are a majority of the electorate.

They are a majority of the electorate if you use their definitions and you are going by registered voters not likely voters.

I don't necessarily think the piece is accurate I just found it interesting. All this poll talk is really silly until after the first debate, in my opinion.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

middle class families don't vote. I thinks its like 20-30% isn't it? And they are no longer than "average" voter.

The fact that he's ahead by 14 points in that demographic and with the economy the way it is and he's still down in the polls.......... its arithmetic.

I have no clue what the %s are.. I can't imagine that they vote at a LOWER % than minorities or the poor. That would AMAZE me if that were the case.

As I have said many times, focusing on polls is silly at this point. I'd GUESS the election RIGHT NOW is a toss up with a marginal advantage to Obama (which I credit to the media bias not holding him accountable like they would even a moderate like Clinton).

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by patteeu

Yeah, that sounds plausible. Romney must be putting most of his ad dollars in Mississippi, California, and Guam. If Bill Clinton really said that, he thinks he's talking to fools.

Actually I don't think he has been running many ads because of money issues. That is why he is constantly doing fundraisers and had to take a loan out

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Romney is winning among middle class families...

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81584.html

You did read the title didn't you?
"Republican poll analysis"

[J Diddy]

Originally Posted by BigRedChief

We were discussing the accuracy of polls not who's the best pollster.

The best analyzer of poll data is Nate Silver, thats just my opinion. You of course, are welcome to your own opinion and tell me how FOS I am in the next post.

If anyone knows about analyzing poles it's patteeu. The high school locker room is what he refers to as the glory years.

[J Diddy]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Actually I don't think he has been running many ads because of money issues. That is why he is constantly doing fundraisers and had to take a loan out

What happens to the money if he doesn't spend it?

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

You did read the title didn't you?
"Republican poll analysis"

That doesn't change the validity of the math. Did you actually read it? I am not one to put much value in this at this point... but for all those touting the polls... you can't pick and choose what you want to hear. The Democratic analysis of the poll doesn't refute these findings it simply focuses on other aspects of it. If you are going to put value in polls, than you have to accept these results.

The FACT is.. this poll shows a 14 pt lead for Romney among middle class families. Notice it does not say middle class Americans... but FAMILIES.. I haven't checked the data to see if this is significant, I imagine it is, otherwise if Romney had a 14 pt lead among everyone in the middle class there is just no way Obama could have a 3pt lead overall, which the poll also shows. If you want to say this poll is wrong and useless... that's fine by me, but it is NO DIFFERENT than all the other polls.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

That doesn't change the validity of the math. Did you actually read it? I am not one to put much value in this at this point... but for all those touting the polls... you can't pick and choose what you want to hear. The Democratic analysis of the poll doesn't refute these findings it simply focuses on other aspects of it. If you are going to put value in polls, than you have to accept these results.

The FACT is.. this poll shows a 14 pt lead for Romney among middle class families. Notice it does not say middle class Americans... but FAMILIES.. I haven't checked the data to see if this is significant, I imagine it is, otherwise if Romney had a 14 pt lead among everyone in the middle class there is just no way Obama could have a 3pt lead overall, which the poll also shows. If you want to say this poll is wrong and useless... that's fine by me, but it is NO DIFFERENT than all the other polls.

I am not saying it was useless or wrong just that I don't put much stock in Republican or Democrat spin analysis.

I will add I noticed the complete poll and data was 488 pages so I am sure numbers could be spun a lot of different ways in both directions

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by J Diddy

What happens to the money if he doesn't spend it?

Good question I don't know except it doesn't go into the candidates personal bank account

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I am not saying it was useless or wrong just that I don't put much stock in Republican or Democrat spin analysis.

I will add I noticed the complete poll and data was 488 pages so I am sure numbers could be spun a lot of different ways in both directions

The "you" in my post was meant as "anyone" not you in particular.

[Comrade Crapski]

Nate Silver, nah!